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Overvalued Players: Week 11

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Derek Carr

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -8

Carr and the Raiders host the Texans in a battle of teams who are in first place in their respective divisions.  While we expect Oakland to be prepared for the game, Houston is the second-best defense in limiting opposing fantasy quarterbacks.  There are several great options at the position this week, many of which are available on most waiver wires. 

Tom Brady

  • Top 200 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 5
  • Difference: -4

Brady and company are coming off the hard-fought loss to Seattle on Sunday evening.  The Patriots travel across the country to face the down-trodden 49ers.  This game sets up for a run-heavy approach for New England.  No, you should not bench the future Hall of Fame quarterback.  But, expectations should be tempered as to his upside this week.

Running Back

Kenneth Dixon

  • Top 200 ranking: 21
  • Weekly ranking: 36
  • Difference: -15

Dixon flashed some of his pre-injury form last week.  We expect him to split touches at least one more week before taking the starting job from Terrance West.  But, the contest in Dallas, against the Cowboys fifth-best defense in limiting opposing fantasy running backs, gives us pause on inserting the rookie into fantasy lineups just yet.  The road contest will be a big test for the Ravens. 

Jordan Howard

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -5

Howard has seized the opportunity and become the unquestioned starting tailback in Chicago.  The game in New York against the Giants appears to be a bad matchup for the rookie runner.  With the suspension to Alshon Jeffery, the New York defense will stack the line of scrimmage, making the Bears throw the football.  Also, there is the chance that the Jay Cutler-led offense implodes any given week and a road game against a good defense could escalate any meltdown.  The injuries to the offensive line will not help matters, either.

Mark Ingram

  • Top 200 ranking: 19
  • Weekly ranking: 23
  • Difference: -4

Even with four of the top 20 running backs out for bye this week, Ingram gets the downgrade for the tough clash on Thursday night in Carolina.  While the Panthers secondary has had issues containing long plays, the rush defense is the fourth-best in the NFL in holding opposing fantasy running backs in check.  We do not like Ingram’s chances of having a big fantasy game against the division rival.

Wide Receiver

T.Y. Hilton

  • Top 200 ranking: 7
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -9

Hilton has the speed to break off big plays each and every game.  The game against Tennessee this week will be a tough one for the play-maker.  The ball control Titans offense has taken over games, and limited the possessions of opponents.  We still recommend starting Hilton.  But, our hopes are set a little lower than most weeks.  Tennessee has a solid defense with enough team speed to hold Hilton in check.  Last year, Hilton had a big first meeting between the two squads and a modest second meeting.  This is what we expect in Week 11 in this second meeting of the teams this season. 

Michael Thomas

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -8

The rookie has been sensational this season.  He has the look of a perennial elite fantasy option.  However, the game in Carolina is not a matchup we like for Thomas.  The contest should be low scoring and another tough divisional bout.  We like Brandin Cooks more than Thomas this week due to his ability to break off big plays.

Amari Cooper

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -3

The Raiders meet the Texans in a big game for both teams.  Houston is the third best defense at limiting fantasy points to opposing wide receivers.  Opponents average just 28.46 PPR points spread among the wide receiver corps.  This is why Michael Crabtree is also downgraded seven spots in the weekly rankings compared to the Top 200 forward.  The Oakland pass catchers have a tough matchup.

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski

  • Top 200 ranking: 1
  • Weekly ranking: 6
  • Difference: -5

Gronkowski took a huge hit last Sunday night against the Seahawks, but stayed in the game.  It was later revealed that he may have suffered a chest injury.  With the soft contest in San Francisco against the 49ers, we do not anticipate the stud tight end playing much, if at all.  The Patriots might as well let Gronkowski recover another week.  But, as long as he plays, Gronkowski is a must-start for fantasy owners.  He is that good in the red zone. 

Eric Ebron

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -7

Ebron was heating up before Detroit’s bye last week.  The game against the Jaguars will mean a great matchup for the Lions’ receivers and less of an impact by the athletic tight end.  Jacksonville is the eight-best defense in holding tight ends in check.  Opposing tight ends average just 10.58 PPR fantasy points per contest against the Jaguars. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.