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Overvalued Players: Week 10

A comparison of the weekly positional rankings and the Top 200, this is an output of the players who could have unexpected poor fantasy weeks.

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players. 

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -9

Cousins and company host the Minnesota Vikings this week.  The vaunted Vikings defense has been exposed the past few weeks.  We expect coach Mike Zimmer to have his defense ready.  Keep in mind that the two head coaches, Zimmer and Jay Gruden, coached together in Cincinnati.  Zimmer will know how to hold Cousins in check.  The issue will be whether his troops will be able to execute.  Minnesota is the fourth-best defense in limiting fantasy numbers for quarterbacks. 

Russell Wilson

  • Top 200 ranking: 15
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -5

The Seahawks inability to run the football of late has increased the pressure on Wilson.  The good news is that the agile quarterback finally looks to be healthy, or close to it.  After a big win on Monday night against Buffalo, Seattle travels to New England.  We are expecting Bill Belichick to have his defense ready.  This will be a much better game for fans than fantasy owners. 

Running Back

Carlos Hyde

  • Top 200 ranking: 22
  • Weekly ranking: 34
  • Difference: -12

Hyde has missed extensive time due to his shoulder injury (A/C joint).  He could play this week against the Cardinals, but will be limited if he does suit up.  Hyde still has not been cleared for contact at practice.  Expect DuJuan Harris to be heavily involved.  Also, given the probability of the 49ers playing from behind most of the contest, Harris’ receiving ability should allow him to play more than Hyde. 

Spencer Ware

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 24
  • Difference: -12

Ware came back to practice on Wednesday.  Yes, there is a possibility he plays against Carolina this week.  Ware will share the load with Charcandrick West.  The Panthers are in the top one-third at limiting running backs in fantasy football.  Keep an eye on the situation.  A healthy Ware will move up the rankings as we approach the weekend. 

Jay Ajayi

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 11
  • Difference: -6

Ajayi has enjoyed three stellar outings.  Even with his benching Week 1 and the bye week, he is still RB13 on the season with three consecutive outings with at least 22 PPR fantasy points.  The game in San Diego will be a tough game for both teams.  The Chargers have yielded big fantasy points to opposing running backs.  But, we see this game as one where Miami will not be able to run the ball effectively. 

Wide Receiver

Odell Beckham Jr

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -5

Beckham had a solid fantasy game last week, scoring 20.6 PPR fantasy points.  Sadly, this was his second-best fantasy outing on the season.  He and the Giants host the Bengals in a big game for both teams’ playoff hopes.  Cincinnati is the fourth-best defense in limiting opposing wide receivers in fantasy football.  Beckham is still a must start this week, even with a lower ceiling than most games. 

Kelvin Benjamin

  • Top 200 ranking: 12
  • Weekly ranking: 17
  • Difference: -5

Benjamin has cooled off after a hot start.  After starting the season with two games over 20 PPR fantasy points, Benjamin has not topped 17 fantasy points the last six games.  The game against the Chiefs will be a tough one for the big receiver.  Kansas City has a very good secondary and will be looking to slow down the Carolina running game and give Benjamin plenty of attention.

Allen Robinson

  • Top 200 ranking: 14
  • Weekly ranking: 22
  • Difference: -8

The game against the Texans will not be easy for the star receiver.  Houston is coming off a bye week and will be prepared for the Jacksonville pass offense.  Quarterback Blake Bortles has not played well of late and it is impacting his receivers.  Robinson has only topped 15 PPR fantasy points in three of his eight games this year.  In addition, he is spreading the ball around to the other receivers.  We still view Robinson as a low-end fantasy WR2 in the contest. 

Tight End

Martellus Bennett

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 18
  • Difference: -8

The game against the Seahawks will be a great game for NFL fans.  Seattle is the second-best defense in limiting opposing fantasy tight ends.  This is a defense that yields only 7.05 PPR fantasy points per game to the tight end position.  The Patriots tight ends of Bennett and Rob Gronkowski will definitely top that number, but it is doubtful that both players will have a great game. 

Antonio Gates

  • Top 200 ranking: 9
  • Weekly ranking: 13
  • Difference: -4

While he is fading fast athletically, the veteran is still able to get open and be the sure-handed option for Philip Rivers.  The game against the Dolphins could be one that Gates has a middling performance.  Miami is in the top one-third of defenses holding tight ends in check.  With rookie Hunter Henry possibly coming back this week, Gates could see his pass targets reduced.  Henry returned to a limited practice on Wednesday.  Even if the rookie stays on the sideline, the upside might be limited as Gates is battling a knee ailment, himself. 

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.