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Overalued Players: Week 2

A look at players who could have unexpected disappointing fantasy weeks

This article will take a weekly look at players who are overvalued in a given week. A negative value is when a player offers more long-term value than he does for this week. The basis for this value will be the difference between the Top 200 forward, a look at the top 200 players with the whole season in mind, and the weekly rankings. Both of these are from the Footballguys.com subscriber content. An emphasis will be on the players with the largest differences between the season outlook and this week only. Also, a preference will be given to differences for the higher ranked players. Some of these differences will be due to injury, the matchup of the week, or short-term situation.  Now, let's take a look at this week's negative value players.  

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers

  • Top 200 ranking: 4
  • Weekly ranking: 9
  • Difference: -5

The Packers travel to Minnesota to face the Vikings.  Coach Zimmer has built a stout defense and will give Green Bay trouble on the road.  No, we do not advise sitting Rodgers this week.  Just lessen the expectations after a big game against Jacksonville a week ago. 

Russell Wilson

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 20
  • Difference: -15

This ranking is a combination of Wilson’s injured ankle and playing on the road in Los Angeles for the Rams home opener.  The star quarterback was under pressure all game against Miami last Sunday and we expect Los Angeles to rebound on the defensive side of the ball after getting embarrassed versus San Francisco late Monday night. 

Running Back

Adrian Peterson

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 14
  • Difference: -8

Peterson was bottled up in Week 1 against Tennessee and will get another tough opponent this week as Green Bay comes to town.  We fully expect the Packers to stack the box against the run and make either Shaun Hill or Sam Bradford beat them through the air.  The expected game script of the Vikings trailing only adds more negativity to our expectations.  Also, keep an eye out for a reported ankle injury Peterson suffered last week.

Todd Gurley

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 19
  • Difference: -14

Coming off a miserable outing against the 49ers, Gurley, and the Rams host the Seahawks this week.  The pitiful quarterback play inhibits the running lanes for the superstar ball carrier.  We still like his year-long upside but are afraid this could be another frustrating week for fantasy owners.  This looks to be a very low-scoring game without much scoring, further limiting Gurley’s upside without many scoring opportunities.

Doug Martin

  • Top 200 ranking: 10
  • Weekly ranking: 16
  • Difference: -6

Martin is a quality back but the matchup with the Cardinals in Arizona could be a tough one for the stout runner.  We expect the Cardinals defense to be well-prepared for Jameis Winston and the offense and the game could get ugly.  If the game becomes lopsided, Martin might be replaced by passing game specialist Charles Sims.

Wide Receiver

Donte Moncrief

  • Top 200 ranking: 20
  • Weekly ranking:40
  • Difference: -20

While Moncrief is expected to take on a larger role in the Colts offense, we are hesitant to expect much this week as Indianapolis travels to Denver to face the Broncos awesome defense.  We are leery of the Colts offense on the road.  Add in the quality of the Broncos secondary and it is difficult to get excited about Moncrief this week.  He will have some big outings.  We just do not expect one this week.

Brandin Cooks

  • Top 200 ranking: 6
  • Weekly ranking: 10
  • Difference: -4

Cooks had a huge game against the Raiders last week in New Orleans.  The game in New York against the Giants should look much different.  The Saints score far fewer points on the road than at home.  Plus, this is the same New York defense that held Dez Bryant in check a week ago. 

Jeremy Maclin

  • Top 200 ranking: 17
  • Weekly ranking: 31
  • Difference: -14

After the great comeback win against San Diego, questions still remain regarding the Kansas City pass offense.  The Chiefs will get a big test as they travel to Houston this week to meet the Texans.  Houston has the pass rush and secondary to keep the impotent Kansas City pass offense off balance all game. 

Tight End

Eric Ebron

  • Top 200 ranking: 11
  • Weekly ranking: 15
  • Difference: -3

Ebron looked good against the Colts last week but faces a better defense in the Titans in Week 2.  Tennessee completely shut down the Minnesota pass offense (not a huge feat), but still should help temper expectations.  This looks to be a low-scoring game at the expense of fantasy owners. 

Julius Thomas

  • Top 200 ranking: 5
  • Weekly ranking: 8
  • Difference: -3

Thomas finally looked healthy last Sunday against the Packers after suffering through an injury-plagued 2015.  The game in San Diego this weekend will be a lower-scoring affair.  The Chargers did a solid job defending Travis Kelce.  Thomas is still a solid TE1 candidate.  We just see other tight ends with higher upside this week.

Feel free to email me (Tefertiller@Footballguys.com) with feedback.  Also, I am on Twitter (www.Twitter.com/JeffTefertiller), LinkedIn, and Google+, so you can ask me questions on one of these as well.