TipAndPick's: Tips and Picks, DK Edition

Cash game and GPP selections for DraftKings

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “Tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on DraftKings and make value-based recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments.

Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.

CASH GAME PLAYS

QUARTERBACKS

Ben Roethlisberger (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $6800). The Steelers have a plush matchup against a decimated Ravens squad that has zero incentive to finish out their season, including their coaching staff who still has not named a starting quarterback. Meanwhile, the Steelers will be motivated to pounce, as they need to win their last two games in order to have any chance of making the playoffs. Ben Roethlisberger will lead that attack against the Ravens' 29th ranked pass defense (FootballOutsiders DVOA metric) that allowed five passing touchdowns to Russell Wilson just two weeks ago. The path of least resistance against Baltimore is definitely through the air, as their only bright spot this season has been the rush defense; consequently, it should be Roethlisberger who is asked to do most of the heavy lifting on Sunday afternoon. And Big Ben has been hot recently, throwing for 300+ yards in five of his last six games, averaging 26.5 DraftKings points over that same span...expect more of the same this weekend against a Ravens team that is looking forward to a top 10 pick in the 2016 NFL Draft.

Blake Bortles (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $6500). Less than a week after suffering a plantar fascia tear, Drew Brees announced on Friday that he is planning on playing against the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. Assuming Brees is healthy enough to run the Saints offense effectively, this NFC South matchup should be full of fantasy upside, as these secondaries are ranked 30th (Jaguars) and 32nd (Saints); if we knew that Drew Brees was 100% healthy, it would be his name in this column because the Jaguars, much like the aforementioned Ravens, boast a very solid rush defense (3.6 yards per carry; 3rd in NFL), which tends to force opponents to attack them through the air. For DFS cash games, however, we need more clarity than what we currently know about Brees' health, which makes him a GPP-only play (see below). Blake Bortles, however, is healthy and gets a top-end matchup against the Saints' porous secondary. Over the past month, Bortles has been on fire, averaging 28.8 fantasy points per week against defenses far better than New Orleans. This game has the highest Vegas total (52 points) on the entire slate and the gamescript is favorable for Bortles, as the Jags are currently 3-point underdogs, all of which should bolster the fantasy floor (and upside) of the Jacksonville passing game.

Also eligibleCam Newton ($7500)

RUNNING BACKS

David Johnson (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $5800). Full disclosure: I have been touting David Johnson since the Footballguys staff was running mock drafts in mid-July. After almost a full season of watching him excel in limited action, Johnson was named the feature running back three weeks ago and has not disappointed; over those three weeks, Johnson has rushed for 378 yards on 70 carries (5.4 yards per carry) alongside 3 rushing touchdowns and 11/94/1 as a receiver out of the backfield. This Sunday, Andre Ellington will return from injury to steal some touches away from Johnson, but Bruce Arians can no longer justify keeping Johnson off the field in lieu of inferior personnel; Ellington will be used as a change-of-pace back, while Johnson should see RB1-like action alongside short-yardage and goal line opportunities. Green Bay, the Cards' opponents, has disguised their inability to defend the run by leading most of their games and minimizing their opponents' rushing attempts, but with Arizona being favored to win this game by 4.5-points, the gamescript appears to be working in favor of the Cardinals backfield. At a $5,800 price point, Johnson is at least $1,000 cheaper than he should be, based on his implied usage and opponent--take advantage accordingly.

Karlos Williams (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4500). With LeSean McCoy missing Week 16 due to an MCL injury, Karlos Williams looks to be the RB1 in the Buffalo backfield against the Dallas Cowboys at Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo. Williams has been solid in limited action during his rookie season, averaging a lofty 6.0 yards per carry and having a penchant for finding the endzone (one touchdown for every 11 touches this season); in his only game without McCoy, Williams touched the ball 21 times for 70 all-purpose yards and a touchdown for a total of 14 DraftKings points...a below-average game for Williams, but still enough to achieve cash game value at his current salary. This weekend, Williams will face-off against the 4-10 Cowboys, who trot out FootballOutsiders' 27th ranked rush defense (DVOA) each week; the Cowboys will start QB Kellen Moore, who threw three interceptions last Sunday, which does not bode well for the Dallas offense and could lead to an early Buffalo lead that results in a heavy dose of Karlos Williams throughout the afternoon...Vegas agrees with that gamescript, as evidenced by their posting of the Bills as 6.5-point favorites at home.

Also eligibleDenard Robinson ($5400), Kendall Gaskins ($3000)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Antonio Brown (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $9300). Antonio Brown has seven consecutive games with double-digit targets, including an 18-target monster 16/189/2 performance against the Broncos a week ago. His opponent this week, the Baltimore Ravens, have the 29th ranked pass defense (FootballOutsiders' DVOA metric) and zero desire to complete their season after losing nearly every skill player to injuries; Antonio Brown should see plenty of Jimmy Smith on his routes and Smith has struggled much of this season, allowing 6 touchdowns while in coverage (9th worst in the NFL) and an opposing quarterback rating of 102.0. With the likely gamescript (a Steelers' blowout), Brown may not reach his full 3x multiplier needed for cash games, but a 6-catch, 100-yard performance with a touchdown seems reasonable, if not likely, which is 25 DraftKings points. On a week where there is plenty of value to be had at other positions, Antonio Brown should be the one expensive player you target for your cash games because his floor appears to be the highest of the expensive receivers this holiday weekend.

Stefon Diggs (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4400). Stefon Diggs came out of nowhere to become the Vikings' WR1 and a fantasy darling before falling off the map for much of November and December; in fact, you might be wondering why/how Diggs could be considered a cash game candidate after his pedestrian second half of the 2015 season? Looking over Diggs' game logs, you will see that he has been the victim of circumstance and/or matchup for the better part of two months now. First, the Vikings have won 7 of their previous 10 games dating back to mid-October, a trend that generally results in bigger fantasy numbers for running backs (Adrian Peterson) than receivers; perhaps more importantly, Diggs has had to endue a gauntlet of tough coverage recently including Patrick Peterson, Richard Sherman, Desmond Trufant, and the talented secondaries in St. Louis and Green Bay. A week ago, Diggs got a reprieve from top-tier coverage and he responded with a pair of touchdowns against the Bears very average defensive backfield; this week, Diggs gets another juicy matchup against the league's most vulnerable secondary (passing yards per game), the New York Giants. Diggs' role in the offense could be further bolstered by an ankle injury to Adrian Peterson that kept the star running back out of practice for much of the week; if Diggs can manage to get the 8-12 targets he was getting against lesser coverage earlier in the year, he makes for a great cash game and GPP play this week at a modest $4,400 salary.

Rueben Randle (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $3500). With the one-game suspension of Odell Beckham Jr. comes a solid value play in the form of Rueben Randle at $3,500 against the Minnesota Vikings. Simply put, the loss of Beckham Jr. dramatically downgrades the entire Giants offense, but likely helps Rueben Randle's DFS value because of the volume that he should experience with Beckham's ~ 11 targets per game being redistributed elsewhere. To date, Randle has only averaged ~ 5 targets per game on the season, but that number should at least double this weekend, particularly if the gamescript plays out according to Vegas oddsmakers, who have slated the Giants as nearly touchdown underdogs. Randle should see plenty of the Vikings' Xavier Rhodes in coverage, who has allowed 6 touchdowns (and no interceptions) this season without a single interception; Eli Manning will be looking towards Rueben Randle (and Will Tye) often and Randle represents a solid value at only $3,500 for all of these reasons.

Also eligibleJarvis Landry ($6400), Jeremy Maclin ($6000)

TIGHT ENDS

Gary Barnidge (Cash game format, Salary: $4700). Salaries for tight ends have been creeping upwards for several weeks now on DraftKings and there are not many great values for cash games. Gary Barnidge appears to be one of the better options in Week 16 against the Chiefs in a game where Johnny Manziel's receiving options are extremely limited after target-monster Brian Hartline broke his collarbone two weeks ago. On paper, this is not a great matchup for Barnidge because the Chiefs boast the league's stingiest defense against the tight end position, but Barnidge has largely been matchup-proof, having amassed 50 receiving yards and/or a touchdown in 11 of his last 12 games. Furthermore, the Chiefs are 10.5-point favorites, which means that Johnny Manziel will be busy tossing the ball on Sunday and if the Browns get near the redzone, it will be Barnidge who gets the most targets because at 6'6" (Travis Benjamin is 5'10" and Taylor Gabriel is 5'8"). Barnidge's upside may be limited by the Browns' overall offensive output, but his floor would appear to be in the 12-15 point range, which would be fine based on his $4,700 salary.

Zach Miller (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4000). With the announcement that Alshon Jeffery is doubtful to play against Tampa Bay, Zach Miller jumped into contention as a cash game play on DraftKings. After missing three consecutive seasons due to various injuries, Miller has quietly put together a nice 2015 campaign with the Bears; the 31-year old tight end has started five games this season and averaged 15.7 DraftKings points in those efforts. This week, Miller will start against a lackluster Buccaneers secondary and should have minimal competition for targets, as Martellus Bennett and Marquess Wilson are both on injured reserve and Alshon Jeffery is looking like he will watch this game, leaving only Eddie Royal and Joshua Bellamy to compete for Jay Cutler's downfield passes; like Barnidge, Miller is a big redzone target on a team without other viable options (Royal is only 5'9" and Bellamy barely touches 6-feet), so it would not be surprising to see him become a focal point near the goal line. Miller needs only 12 fantasy points to reach value, a number that is quite likely if Alshon Jeffery is, indeed, absent from this game.

Also eligibleWill Tye ($3500)

TEAM DEFENSES

Seahawks (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4300). Call it a narrative if you like, but the Seahawks will be looking for revenge against the Rams this week after being embarrassed on opening weekend in a 34-31 loss in St. Louis. Since then, the Rams have gone 5-8 and won only one game on the road, while the Seahawks have record a 9-4 record, including winning 7 of their last 8 games...a reflection of how this week's matchup should play out. Since getting gouged by the Steelers a month ago, the Seahawks have given up an average of 9 points per game and have averaged double-digit fantasy points over that same span; meanwhile, the Rams are averaging only 12 points per game on the road and will suit up Case Keenum against the intimidating "Twelfth Man" in Seattle. They are expensive, but Seattle's defense represents one of the safer plays on the DFS board for cash games in Week 16.

Chiefs (Cash and GPP formats, Salary: $4200). Kansas City is feasting on a cupcake schedule, having won eight straight games and scoring double-digit fantasy points in all-but-one of those contests. There is little reason to doubt that the Chiefs will stay hot this weekend against Johnny Manziel and the toothless Browns offense that has scored only 26 points over their previous three games (9.3 points per game). Manziel has thrown an interception in three straight games, but has not yet had that "disaster game" that some of us expect; this could be that game because the Chiefs have the third most sacks on the season, while the Browns allowed the third most sacks...a combination that should put Johnny Manziel on his heels for most of the game and could force him into trying to make plays where there otherwise are none. Do not be surprised if the Chiefs defense scores again this weekend for those reasons.

GPP PLAYS

QUARTERBACKS

Drew Brees (Salary: $6800). Monitor Brees closely on Sunday morning...if reports are that he is near 100%, he will be asked to throw often against the league's 30th ranked DVOA pass defense; the Jags should contain Tim Hightower with their stout rush defense (3.6 yards per carry), which should funnel additional action to Brees and the passing game. The Jags have allowed three or more touchdowns in half of their last six games, while scoring 34 points per game over the past month...a clear indication that their defense is doing very little to prevent scoring and their offense is keeping pace in many of those games, resulting in high-impact fantasy shootouts. Brees' ownership levels could be somewhat low because of concerns about his torn plantar fascia, which further enhances his GPP prowess.

Jay Cutler (Salary: $5200). Nobody will be on Jay Cutler this week because he will be without Alshon Jeffery, but his salary and upside are entirely within reason for GPP formats. The matchup is prime against the Buccaneers, who have allowed at least a pair of touchdowns in 10 out of 14 games this season and have FootballOutsiders' 24th ranked pass defense; action will continue to be focused through the air against the Bucs, as they boast a stifling rush defense (3.3 yards per carry; 4th ranked DVOA). Adam Gase and Cutler will dice up this secondary with a series of short passes to many different receivers including Joshua Bellamy, Eddie Royal, Matt Forte, Marc Mariani, and Zach Miller. Miller is the recommended stack because of his redzone prowess--you can have both for $9,200 and need only ~ 35 fantasy points to reach GPP value at likely low ownership. If Tampa Bay can move the ball effectively (they should be able to do so), this game has sneaky shootout potential.

Teddy Bridgewater (Salary: $5200). There are several factors pointing towards a big day from Teddy Bridgewater this week...First, Adrian Peterson was injured in-game versus the Bears last week and was obviously affected--the league's best running back only mustered 63 yards on 18 carries, one of his worst outings of the season; Peterson missed multiple practices this week, but returned on Friday...the Vikings will need him for the playoffs and could choose to limit his carries against a Giants defense that has been shredded by the pass all season. The Vikings have a fairly high implied team total (~ 26 points) and are in a must-win situation to secure a playoff birth...expect them to pull out all stops and exploit the weakness of the Giants defense in order to win.

RUNNING BACKS

Adrian Peterson (Salary: $7300). A week after being over 30% owned in various DFS contests last week, Adrian Peterson was less than 5% owned in Thursday-locked large-field GPP's on other DFS sites...far too low for a running back with multiple touchdown upside. Yes, Peterson was pedestrian last week after suffering an ankle injury and, yes, he missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday this week, but only Adrian Peterson knows exactly how bad that injury is...assuming Peterson starts against the Giants and the coaching staff plays him as though he is 100%, Peterson could end this game with 100+ yards and a pair of touchdowns at ownership levels that are a fraction of where he was just a week ago. As 6.5-point favorites, the game flow could also favor a heavy role for Peterson.

Christine Michael (Salary: $4400). After three years with the team, Christine Michael finally got his chance for extensive action with the Seahawks last weekend and he responded with a 16-attempt, 84-yard performance against the Browns...Russell Wilson scavenged all the touchdown opportunities, but Michael should gets some goal line looks this weekend against the Rams as 14-point favorites. The Rams are a good, but not great rush defense, allowing 4.2 yards per carry and seven of their last eight RB1's to surpass 100+ all-purpose yards; if Michael can accrue similar numbers this weekend, he could easily hit 5x value on his moderate $4,400 salary. Michael also possesses the advantage of having 'fresh legs' deep in the season because of his limited usage to this point...do not underestimate the 'fresh legs' angle for running backs, as those players take a beating with hundreds of touches (and hits) over the first three months of the season--those running backs who have less mileage on their legs in December tend to thrive.

Cameron Artis-Payne (Salary: $4300). Entering last week's game against the Giants, nobody knew how Ron Rivera would split carries between Cameron Artis-Payne, Fozzy Whittaker, and Mike Tolbert in a backfield without Jonathan Stewart. Despite all seeing similar snap counts (32, 26, and 23, respectively), Artis-Payne emerged as the clear leader in the backfield, finishing the day with 16 touches and 93 all-purpose yards after entering the game in the second quarter. This week, Coach Rivera has announced that Artis-Payne did well in his role as RB1, so he will receive similar action against the Falcons. Since their Week 10 bye, the Falcons have allowed every opposing RB1 to score > 15 DraftKings points, which would be close the 4x multiplier necessary for Artis-Payne to reach GPP value at his $4,300 salary. With the Panthers being touchdown favorites, Artis-Payne should see plenty of volume in the second half...if he finishes with 100-rushing yards and/or a touchdown, he will assuredly reach value; lastly, like Christine Michael, Artis-Payne enters Week 16 with only 28 total touches on the season, so he should be ready for whatever volume the coaching staff is prepared to give him.

Bilal Powell (Salary: $3900). Chris Ivory has one 100-yard rushing game and one touchdown in his previous six games, while Bilal Powell is thriving with 80+ all-purpose yards and a touchdown in each of his past three games (21.6 fantasy points per game). Over his past five games, Powell has 37 targets in the passing game, which is where he will be used heavily this week against the Patriots, who should keep their foot on the gas and force the Jets to throw the ball often. The Pats shut down Chris Ivory on the ground back in Week 7 (17/41/0) and forced the Jets to compete via the pass...Ivory got the action that would have gone to Powell (who missed the game with an injury) including a touchdown pass. Nobody likes rostering a player that does not enjoy a full bevy of snaps, but that fact will keep Powell's ownership low and allow you to capitalize on Ivory's recent demise in a game where Powell should be used heavily.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Allen Robinson (Salary: $7500). A fairly simple formula: Roster the best receiver on the team playing against the Saints. The sophomore star has slowed recently due to the return of Allen Hurns and Julius Thomas, but Allen Robinson has multiple touchdown upside every Sunday, especially when he lines up across from one of the league's worst coverage cornerbacks, Brandon Browner. The only thing that keeps Robinson from becoming a cash game play is the fact that the Jags could conceivably score with Julius Thomas, Denard Robinson, and/or Allen Hurns...all of whom could steal massive fantasy points from Robinson. Bump Robinson's value if Brees appears to be close to 100% on Sunday morning...if we can count on the Saints keeping the game close and/or winning, Robinson's number could be called far more often than it has (nine times) in the past two weeks.

Sammy Watkins (Salary: $6700). Sammy Watkins gets a prime matchup against the oft-burned Morris Claiborne on Sunday at home; Claiborne has received negative grades for five consecutive weeks on ProFootballFocus and has allowed an opposing quarterback rating of 105.4 when in coverage this season. Meanwhile, Watkins has been linking up with Tyrod Taylor a lot recently, having scored in four consecutive games with a pair of touchdowns in two of those games...with Robert Woods suffering a season-ending groin injury last week, Watkins could be in line for even more volume in an offense that already features the second-year star. As we close out the 2015 season, Tyrod Taylor is campaigning for a starting position in 2016, so there is good reason to believe that he will continue to try to bolster his numbers in order to secure the job next year.

T.Y. Hilton (Salary: $5800). It is a shame that the Colts are so beaten up at every position because they have a prime matchup against the Dolphins' 31st ranked pass defense this weekend. Donte Moncrief has been dealing with a toe injury for several weeks now, barely practiced this week, and is a true game-time decision entering Sunday; if Moncrief does not play, T.Y. Hilton should be discussed in cash game circles because of the number of targets he will see against this dreadful Dolphins secondary that has allowed some huge weeks to receivers all season, including 3 receiving touchdowns to Danny Woodhead a week ago. Hilton has been inconsistent as of late, scoring less than seven fantasy points in three of his previous five games, but he has surpassed 20 fantasy points in the other two games during that stretch...exemplifying why he is strictly a GPP play at this juncture. Add in the total disaster that is the Colts backfield and you have to seriously consider T.Y. Hilton as the one player who could carry this Colts offense in Week 16.

Markus Wheaton (Salary: $4100). The ownership levels for the Steelers are going to be immense this weekend...for good reason--the Ravens stink, the Steelers have all the incentive in the world to play well, and there is a slew of fantasy value on the side of the Steelers. Of those players, Markus Wheaton will be the lowest-owned player and, for that reason, he is an attractive GPP play. In GPP's that locked on Thursday night (other DFS sites), Antonio Brown was 43% owned, Martavis Bryant was 17% owned, DeAngelo Williams was 26% owned...and Markus Wheaton was 3% owned! Two months ago when Wheaton was an afterthought in Ben Roethlisberger's mind, those numbers would have made a lot of sense, but Wheaton has been a mainstay in this offense since his breakout game against the Seahawks a month ago...the third-year receiver is averaging 9.3 targets per game over the past month and has scored a touchdown in three of those four games. Wheaton is not the most likely Steelers' skill player to excel on Sunday, but his projected ownership levels dictate that you give him serious consideration on your GPP lineups, particularly in light of his recent success in the offense.

Jermaine Kearse (Salary: $3200). Quick...who has more targets in the Seahawks' offense over the previous two weeks? If you guessed Doug Baldwin or Tyler Lockett, you would be wrong because Jermaine Kearse is leading the surging Seahawks offense in targets during that time. Kearse has 14 receptions for 184 yards in those two weeks, but did not manage to find the endzone; meanwhile, Baldwin and Lockett have eight touchdowns over that same span, despite not having as many targets. From week to week, predicting touchdowns is difficult at best and dangerous at worst...but predicting targets is far safer; as such, Jermaine Kearse is a sneaky GPP play this week because his salary has dropped to near the site minimum while the salaries of both Lockett and Baldwin continue to surge. Of the three, Baldwin looks to be the receiver with the biggest likelihood for failure against a team that has allowed only two touchdowns all season to slot receivers. Truthfully, Kearse does not need to score to achieve value at his salary, but if he does, he will catapult your entry into contention at less than 2% ownership. 

TIGHT ENDS

Julius Thomas (Salary: $5100). Since returning from the Jaguars' Week 8 bye, only Allen Robinson has more targets from Blake Bortles than Julius Thomas; the powerful tight end is averaging 7.4 targets per game over that span and gets a tremendous matchup against the Saints, who have yielded more fantasy points to the tight end position than any team in the league this season. The danger in rostering Thomas is similar to the danger in rostering a Steeler skill player this week--any of them can score against their respective defenses and choosing the correct player to fill out your roster will be a challenge. It would not be surprising if Julius Thomas were held scoreless because Allen Robinson, Denard Robinson, and Allen Hurns all excelled...and vice-versa. That said, you want players with multiple touchdown upside in each of your roster slots and Julius Thomas definitely possesses that type of ability. In a game where the Saints will certainly be preoccupied with containing Allen Robinson, it would not be surprising to see Thomas capitalize on lesser coverage underneath and in the redzone.

Kyle Rudolph (Salary: $3300). On Christmas weekend, shouldn't we expect to see a name like "Rudolph" in an article designed to help you win some Christmas cash? Only the Saints have allowed more fantasy points to opposing tight ends than the New York Giants, which means that Kyle Rudolph could be in store for a solid performance on Sunday at a fair $3,300 salary. Rudolph has logged 12+ fantasy points in three of his past five games, which would be enough to reach GPP value on DraftKings at his current salary. At discussed above, Adrian Peterson is a real question mark entering the weekend and his role will dictate exactly what transpires with Teddy Bridgewater, Stefon Diggs, and Kyle Rudolph; if Peterson is limited in any way, the entire Vikings' passing offense could be in store for lofty numbers against a Giants secondary that ranks 27th in FootballOutsiders' DVOA metric. From a game strategy vantage point, I believe it makes more sense to take a chance on a low-salary tight end because the variance associated with the position really hurts one's roster when that person spends a lot of salary on a tight end and that player underperforms; on the contrary, if one rosters a disappointing tight end at $3K, it will not completely kill the roster's chance of a top finish.

DEFENSES

Broncos (Salary: $3400). The league's best secondary against a rookie quarterback away from home? Yes, please! Seriously, though...a week after throwing a pick-six to the Steelers' William Gay, Marvin Jackson asked A.J. McCarron to do as little as possible against the 49ers to bring back a victory and McCarron did exactly that with a 21 attempt, 192-yard performance (one passing touchdown); McCarron will not have the luxury of throwing the ball only 21 times this weekend against the Broncos, who should stifle Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard attempts at rushing the ball...which means that McCarron could throw the ball in excess of 35 times, particularly if Brock Osweiler can lead the Broncos to an early lead. If McCarron is forced to throw too often, the Denver secondary will take advantage and we could another defensive touchdown scored against this young quarterback, who has never played against a defense of this caliber in his 25 years of playing the game.

Bills (Salary: $3200). Speaking of plus defenses against young quarterbacks, how about the Bills against the Cowboys' Kellen Moore making his NFL debut at Ralph Wilson Stadium? Last week, Moore got his first taste of playing quarterback at the NFL level and threw three interceptions (from 25 pass attempts) along the way...the Cowboys have all but given up on their season, placing Tony Romo on the injured reserve earlier this week, which could mean that we see an even less motivated team on Sunday in Buffalo. Jason Garrett will likely try to lean on Darren McFadden and his top-ranked offensive line to keep the game close against a Bills' defensive front that FootballOutsiders ranks as the 3rd worst rush defense in the league...but if the Cowboys fall behind (and they likely will), Moore's number will be called and Bills' defensive scores could result.

Lions (Salary: $2800). The Detroit Lions are not a defensive juggernaut, but they face a San Francisco 49ers team that has allowed three of their last four opponents to score double-digit fantasy points. The Lions will have to contend with names like Blaine Gabbert and Kendall Gaskins this Sunday, which should not prove to be a difficult task...shut-down cornerback Darius Slay will cover Torrey Smith, leaving only the aging Anquan Boldin to create offensive damage, which will be difficult with Gabbert throwing the pigskin; in fairness, Gabbert had been displaying tactical skills protecting the ball until last week when he threw three interceptions against the Bengals...if he falls behind this week (and oddsmakers project that they will), we could very well see a repeat turnover-prone performance and get the opposing defense at a bargain $2,800 price point.

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