Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay | San Francisco | -8.5 | 28.5 | 48.5 | ++ | +++ | |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -9 | 28.5 | 48 | ++ | +++ | |
| New Orleans | Dallas | -7 | 27 | 47 | ++ | ++ | |
| Atlanta | Houston | -6.5 | 26.75 | 47 | ++ | ++ | |
| San Diego | Cleveland | -8 | 26.5 | 45 | ++ | ++ | + |
| Seattle | Detroit | -9.5 | 26.25 | 43 | + | +++ | +++ |
| Buffalo | NY Giants | -5.5 | 26 | 46.5 | + | + | |
| Denver | Minnesota | -7 | 24.75 | 42.5 | + | ++ | |
| Arizona | St. Louis | -7 | 24.75 | 42.5 | + | ++ | |
| Philadelphia | Washington | -2 | 24.5 | 47 | |||
| Cincinnati | Kansas City | -4 | 24 | 44 | |||
| Oakland | Chicago | -2.5 | 23.5 | 44.5 | |||
| Baltimore | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 23 | 43.5 | |||
| Washington | Philadelphia | 2 | 22.5 | 47 | |||
| NY Jets | Miami | -2 | 21.75 | 41.5 | |||
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | -3.5 | 21.75 | 40 | + | ||
| Chicago | Oakland | 2.5 | 21 | 44.5 | |||
| NY Giants | Buffalo | 5.5 | 20.5 | 46.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 2.5 | 20.5 | 43.5 | |||
| Houston | Atlanta | 6.5 | 20.25 | 47 | |||
| Kansas City | Cincinnati | 4 | 20 | 44 | |||
| Dallas | New Orleans | 7 | 20 | 47 | |||
| San Francisco | Green Bay | 8.5 | 20 | 48.5 | + | ||
| Miami | NY Jets | 2 | 19.75 | 41.5 | |||
| Jacksonville | Indianapolis | 9 | 19.5 | 48 | + | ||
| Cleveland | San Diego | 8 | 18.5 | 45 | |||
| Tampa Bay | Carolina | 3.5 | 18.25 | 40 | |||
| Minnesota | Denver | 7 | 17.75 | 42.5 | |||
| St. Louis | Arizona | 7 | 17.75 | 42.5 | |||
| Detroit | Seattle | 9.5 | 16.75 | 43 | + |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: None
- Running Back: Eddie Lacy (Packers), Frank Gore (Colts), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)
- Receivers: None
- Defense: Seahawks
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Josh McCown or Drew Brees (Saints), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Mark Ingram (Saints), Devonta Freeman (Falcons), Melvin Gordon & Danny Woodhead (Chargers)
- Receivers: Randall Cobb/James Jones/Davante Adams (Packers), T.Y. Hilton/Donte Moncrief (Colts), Brandin Cooks/Marques Colston/Willie Snead (Saints), Julio Jones/Leonard Hankerson (Falcons), Keenan Allen/Stevie Johnson (Chargers)
- Defense: Broncos, Cardinals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Russel Wilson (Seahawks), Tyrod Taylor (Bills), Colin Kaeparnick (49'ers), Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Matthew Stafford (Lions)
- Running Back: Karlos Williams (Bills), Ronnie Hillman/C.J. Anderson (Broncos), Chris Johnson/David Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Doug Baldwin/Jermaine Kearse/Jimmy Graham (Seahawks), Sammy Watkins/Percy Harvin/Charles Clay (Bills), Anquan Boldin/Torrey Smith (49'ers), Allen Robinson/Allen Hurns (Jaguars), Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate/Eric Ebron (Lions)
- Defense: Chargers, Panthers
