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Vegas Value Chart: Week 3

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

Team Opponent Odds Game Total Team Total Passing Running Team Defense
New England Jacksonville -13.5 47.5 30.5 +++ +++ +++
Seattle Chicago -15 44 29.5 ++ +++ +++
Green Bay Kansas City -7 49 28 ++ ++  
Denver Detroit -3 48 25.5 ++ +  
Arizona San Francisco -6.5 43.5 25 + ++ ++
NY Jets Philadelphia -2.5 47 24.75 + +  
Pittsburgh St. Louis -1.5 47.5 24.5 + +  
Carolina New Orleans -4 45 24.5 + +  
Indianapolis Tennessee -3.5 45 24.25 + +  
NY Giants Washington -4 44 24 + +  
Baltimore Cincinnati -3 44.5 23.75      
Houston Tampa Bay -6.5 40.5 23.5     +++
Atlanta Dallas -1.5 45 23.25      
Minnesota San Diego -2 44.5 23.25      
Miami Buffalo -3 43.5 23.25      
St. Louis Pittsburgh 1.5 47.5 23      
Cleveland Oakland -3.5 42 22.75     +
Detroit Denver 3 48 22.5      
Philadelphia NY Jets 2.5 47 22.25      
Dallas Atlanta 1.5 45 21.75      
San Diego Minnesota 2 44.5 21.25      
Kansas City Green Bay 7 49 21      
Cincinnati Baltimore 3 44.5 20.75      
Tennessee Indianapolis 3.5 45 20.75      
New Orleans Carolina 4 45 20.5      
Buffalo Miami 3 43.5 20.25      
Washington NY Giants 4 44 20      
Oakland Cleveland 3.5 42 19.25      
San Francisco Arizona 6.5 43.5 18.5      
Tampa Bay Houston 6.5 40.5 17      
Jacksonville New England 13.5 47.5 17 +    
Chicago Seattle 15 44 14.5 +    
 

SUMMARY

3-STARS

  • Quarterback:  Tom Brady (Patriots)
  • Running Back:  Blount/Lewis (Patriots), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)
  • Receivers:  Edelman/Amendola/Gronkowski (Patriots)
  • Defense:  Patriots, Seahawks, Texans

2-STARS

  • Quarterback:  Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Peyton Manning (Broncos)
  • Running Back:  James Starks (Packers), C.Johnson/D.Johnson (Cardinals)
  • Receivers:  Baldwin/Kearse/Graham (Seahawks), Cobb/Adams/Jones (Packers), D.Thomas/Sanders (Broncos)
  • Defense:  Cardinals

1-STAR

  • Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Eli Manning (Giants), Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Jimmy Clausen (Bears)
  • Running Back:  Anderson/Hillman (Broncos), Ivory/Powell (Jets), Bell (Steelers), Stewart (Panthers), Gore (Colts), Jennings/Vereen (Giants)
  • Receivers: Fitzgerald/J.Brown (Cardinals), Marshall/Decker (Jets), A.Brown/Wheaton/Miller (Steelers), C.Brown/Ginn/Olsen (Panthers), Hilton/Moncrief (Colts), Beckham/Randle/Donnell (Giants), Robinson/Hurns (Jaguars), Jeffery/Royal/Bennett (Bears)
  • Defense:  Browns