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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
New England | Jacksonville | -13.5 | 47.5 | 30.5 | +++ | +++ | +++ |
Seattle | Chicago | -15 | 44 | 29.5 | ++ | +++ | +++ |
Green Bay | Kansas City | -7 | 49 | 28 | ++ | ++ | |
Denver | Detroit | -3 | 48 | 25.5 | ++ | + | |
Arizona | San Francisco | -6.5 | 43.5 | 25 | + | ++ | ++ |
NY Jets | Philadelphia | -2.5 | 47 | 24.75 | + | + | |
Pittsburgh | St. Louis | -1.5 | 47.5 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Carolina | New Orleans | -4 | 45 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Indianapolis | Tennessee | -3.5 | 45 | 24.25 | + | + | |
NY Giants | Washington | -4 | 44 | 24 | + | + | |
Baltimore | Cincinnati | -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | |||
Houston | Tampa Bay | -6.5 | 40.5 | 23.5 | +++ | ||
Atlanta | Dallas | -1.5 | 45 | 23.25 | |||
Minnesota | San Diego | -2 | 44.5 | 23.25 | |||
Miami | Buffalo | -3 | 43.5 | 23.25 | |||
St. Louis | Pittsburgh | 1.5 | 47.5 | 23 | |||
Cleveland | Oakland | -3.5 | 42 | 22.75 | + | ||
Detroit | Denver | 3 | 48 | 22.5 | |||
Philadelphia | NY Jets | 2.5 | 47 | 22.25 | |||
Dallas | Atlanta | 1.5 | 45 | 21.75 | |||
San Diego | Minnesota | 2 | 44.5 | 21.25 | |||
Kansas City | Green Bay | 7 | 49 | 21 | |||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||
Tennessee | Indianapolis | 3.5 | 45 | 20.75 | |||
New Orleans | Carolina | 4 | 45 | 20.5 | |||
Buffalo | Miami | 3 | 43.5 | 20.25 | |||
Washington | NY Giants | 4 | 44 | 20 | |||
Oakland | Cleveland | 3.5 | 42 | 19.25 | |||
San Francisco | Arizona | 6.5 | 43.5 | 18.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Houston | 6.5 | 40.5 | 17 | |||
Jacksonville | New England | 13.5 | 47.5 | 17 | + | ||
Chicago | Seattle | 15 | 44 | 14.5 | + | ||
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots)
- Running Back: Blount/Lewis (Patriots), Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks)
- Receivers: Edelman/Amendola/Gronkowski (Patriots)
- Defense: Patriots, Seahawks, Texans
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Peyton Manning (Broncos)
- Running Back: James Starks (Packers), C.Johnson/D.Johnson (Cardinals)
- Receivers: Baldwin/Kearse/Graham (Seahawks), Cobb/Adams/Jones (Packers), D.Thomas/Sanders (Broncos)
- Defense: Cardinals
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Jets), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Cam Newton (Panthers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Eli Manning (Giants), Blake Bortles (Jaguars), Jimmy Clausen (Bears)
- Running Back: Anderson/Hillman (Broncos), Ivory/Powell (Jets), Bell (Steelers), Stewart (Panthers), Gore (Colts), Jennings/Vereen (Giants)
- Receivers: Fitzgerald/J.Brown (Cardinals), Marshall/Decker (Jets), A.Brown/Wheaton/Miller (Steelers), C.Brown/Ginn/Olsen (Panthers), Hilton/Moncrief (Colts), Beckham/Randle/Donnell (Giants), Robinson/Hurns (Jaguars), Jeffery/Royal/Bennett (Bears)
- Defense: Browns