Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
**NOTE: Due to uncertainty surrounding Derek Carr's hand injury, there are no betting odds on the BAL/OAK game as of Tuesday, September 15th. When odds are available, the table will be updated.**
Team | Opponent | Odds | Game Total | Team Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia | Dallas | -6 | 55.5 | 30.75 | +++ | +++ | |
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -11 | 47 | 29 | ++ | +++ | +++ |
Indianapolis | NY Jets | -6.5 | 47 | 26.75 | ++ | ++ | |
NY Giants | Atlanta | -2 | 51 | 26.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | Seattle | -4 | 48.5 | 26.25 | ++ | ++ | |
Dallas | Philadelphia | 6 | 55.5 | 24.75 | ++ | + | |
Pittsburgh | San Francisco | -5.5 | 44 | 24.75 | + | ++ | + |
Atlanta | NY Giants | 2 | 51 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Cincinnati | San Diego | -3.5 | 45.5 | 24.5 | + | + | |
Miami | Jacksonville | -6 | 41.5 | 23.75 | + | ++ | |
Arizona | Chicago | -2 | 45 | 23.5 | |||
Minnesota | Detroit | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||
Kansas City | Denver | -3.5 | 42 | 22.75 | + | ||
New England | Buffalo | 0 | 45 | 22.5 | |||
Buffalo | New England | 0 | 45 | 22.5 | |||
St. Louis | Washington | -3.5 | 41 | 22.25 | + | ||
Seattle | Green Bay | 4 | 48.5 | 22.25 | |||
Carolina | Houston | -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | ++ | ||
Chicago | Arizona | 2 | 45 | 21.5 | |||
Tennessee | Cleveland | -1 | 41.5 | 21.25 | |||
San Diego | Cincinnati | 3.5 | 45.5 | 21 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||
NY Jets | Indianapolis | 6.5 | 47 | 20.25 | |||
Cleveland | Tennessee | 1 | 41.5 | 20.25 | |||
Denver | Kansas City | 3.5 | 42 | 19.25 | |||
San Francisco | Pittsburgh | 5.5 | 44 | 19.25 | |||
Washington | St. Louis | 3.5 | 41 | 18.75 | |||
Houston | Carolina | 3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 11 | 47 | 18 | |||
Jacksonville | Miami | 6 | 41.5 | 17.75 | |||
Baltimore | Oakland | -6.5 | 42.5 | 24.5 | ++ | +++ | |
Oakland | Baltimore | 6.5 | 42.5 | 18 |
SUMMARY
3-STARS
- Quarterback: Sam Bradford (Eagles)
- Running Back: DeMarco Murray (Eagles), Ingram/Robinson (Saints)
- Receivers: Matthews/Agholor/Ertz (Eagles)
2-STARS
- Quarterback: Drew Brees (Saints), Andrew Luck (Colts), Eli Manning (Giants), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Tony Romo (Cowboys)
- Running Back: Frank Gore (Colts), Jennings/Vereen (Giants), Eddie Lacy (Packers), DeAngelo Williams (Steelers)
- Receivers: Colston/Cooks/Coleman (Saints), Hilton/Moncrief/Johnson (Colts), Beckham/Randle/Donnell (Giants), Cobb/Adams/Jones (Packers), T.Williams/Witten/Beasley (Cowboys)
1-STAR
- Quarterback: Ben Roethlisberger (Cardinals), Matt Ryan (Falcons), Andy Dalton (Bengals)
- Running Back: Randle/McFadden/Dunbar (Cowboys), Coleman/Freeman (Falcons), Hill/Bernard (Bengals), Miller (Dolphins)
- Receivers: A.Brown/Wheaton/Miller (Steelers), J.Jones/White (Falcons), Green/Eifert (Bengals)