Vegas Value Chart: Week 16

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentOddsTotalTeam TotalRunningPassingDefense
Pittsburgh Baltimore -10 47.5 28.75 +++ +++  
New Orleans Jacksonville -3.5 52 27.75 ++ +++  
Kansas City Cleveland -12.5 43 27.75 +++ ++ +++
Carolina Atlanta -7 47.5 27.25 ++ ++  
Arizona Green Bay -4.5 49.5 27 ++ ++  
Seattle St. Louis -13.5 40.5 27 +++ ++ +++
Detroit San Francisco -9.5 43 26.25 ++ + ++
Oakland San Diego -5 47 26 + +  
Minnesota NY Giants -6 45.5 25.75 + +  
Philadelphia Washington -3 47.5 25.25 + +  
Buffalo Dallas -6.5 42.5 24.5     +
Jacksonville New Orleans 3.5 52 24.25      
New England NY Jets -3 45.5 24.25      
Tampa Bay Chicago -3 45.5 24.25      
Houston Tennessee -3.5 42.5 23      
Miami Indianapolis -1.5 44 22.75      
Green Bay Arizona 4.5 49.5 22.5      
Washington Philadelphia 3 47.5 22.25      
Denver Cincinnati -3.5 40.5 22     +
Chicago Tampa Bay 3 45.5 21.25      
Indianapolis Miami 1.5 44 21.25      
NY Jets New England 3 45.5 21.25      
San Diego Oakland 5 47 21      
Atlanta Carolina 7 47.5 20.25      
NY Giants Minnesota 6 45.5 19.75      
Tennessee Houston 3.5 42.5 19.5      
Baltimore Pittsburgh 10 47.5 18.75   +  
Cincinnati Denver 3.5 40.5 18.5      
Dallas Buffalo 6.5 42.5 18      
San Francisco Detroit 9.5 43 16.75      
Cleveland Kansas City 12.5 43 15.25   +  
St. Louis Seattle 13.5 40.5 13.5   +  

 

SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR