Vegas Value Chart: Week 11

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentOddsTotalTeam TotalRunningPassingDefense
New England Buffalo -7 48 27.5 +++ +++  
Atlanta Indianapolis -5.5 47.5 26.5 ++ ++  
Carolina Washington -7.5 45 26.25 ++ ++ ++
Arizona Cincinnati -4.5 48 26.25 ++ ++  
Seattle San Francisco -12.5 40 26.25 +++ ++ +++
Philadelphia Tampa Bay -5.5 45.5 25.5 + +  
Oakland Detroit -1.5 48 24.75 + +  
Dallas Miami 0 47.5 23.75      
Kansas City San Diego -3 44.5 23.75      
Miami Dallas 0 47.5 23.75      
Detroit Oakland 1.5 48 23.25      
Jacksonville Tennessee -3 43 23      
Minnesota Green Bay -1 45 23      
Green Bay Minnesota 1 45 22      
NY Jets Houston -2.5 41 21.75     +
Cincinnati Arizona 4.5 48 21.75      
Baltimore St. Louis -1.5 41.5 21.5      
Chicago Denver -1.5 41.5 21.5      
Indianapolis Atlanta 5.5 47.5 21   +  
San Diego Kansas City 3 44.5 20.75      
Buffalo New England 7 48 20.5   +  
Tennessee Jacksonville 3 43 20      
St. Louis Baltimore 1.5 41.5 20      
Tampa Bay Philadelphia 5.5 45.5 20      
Denver Chicago 1.5 41.5 20      
Houston NY Jets 2.5 41 19.25      
Washington Carolina 7.5 45 18.75      
San Francisco Seattle 12.5 40 13.75      

 

SUMMARY

3-STARS

2-STARS

1-STAR