Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
| Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Passing | Running | Team Defense |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | Pittsburgh | -7 | 29.5 | 52 | ++ | +++ | |
| Philadelphia | Atlanta | -2.5 | 28.75 | 55 | +++ | +++ | |
| Dallas | NY Giants | -6 | 28.75 | 51.5 | ++ | +++ | |
| Green Bay | Chicago | -7 | 28.25 | 49.5 | ++ | +++ | |
| Denver | Baltimore | -4.5 | 26.75 | 49 | ++ | ++ | |
| Atlanta | Philadelphia | 2.5 | 26.25 | 55 | ++ | + | |
| Arizona | New Orleans | -2.5 | 25.25 | 48 | + | + | |
| Indianapolis | Buffalo | -3 | 24.5 | 46 | + | + | |
| San Diego | Detroit | -3 | 24.25 | 45.5 | + | + | |
| Miami | Washington | -4 | 23.75 | 43.5 | |||
| Cincinnati | Oakland | -3.5 | 23.5 | 43.5 | |||
| Seattle | St. Louis | -4.5 | 22.75 | 41 | +++ | ||
| New Orleans | Arizona | 2.5 | 22.75 | 48 | |||
| NY Giants | Dallas | 6 | 22.75 | 51.5 | |||
| Pittsburgh | New England | 7 | 22.5 | 52 | |||
| Carolina | Jacksonville | -3.5 | 22.25 | 41 | ++ | ||
| Baltimore | Denver | 4.5 | 22.25 | 49 | |||
| Minnesota | San Francisco | -3 | 22.25 | 41.5 | + | ||
| Tampa Bay | Tennessee | -3 | 22 | 41 | ++ | ||
| NY Jets | Cleveland | -3.5 | 21.75 | 40 | +++ | ||
| Buffalo | Indianapolis | 3 | 21.5 | 46 | |||
| Detroit | San Diego | 3 | 21.25 | 45.5 | |||
| Chicago | Green Bay | 7 | 21.25 | 49.5 | |||
| Houston | Kansas City | -1 | 21 | 41 | |||
| Kansas City | Houston | 1 | 20 | 41 | |||
| Oakland | Cincinnati | 3.5 | 20 | 43.5 | |||
| Washington | Miami | 4 | 19.75 | 43.5 | |||
| San Francisco | Minnesota | 3 | 19.25 | 41.5 | |||
| Tennessee | Tampa Bay | 3 | 19 | 41 | |||
| Jacksonville | Carolina | 3.5 | 18.75 | 41 | |||
| Cleveland | NY Jets | 3.5 | 18.25 | 40 | |||
| St. Louis | Seattle | 4.5 | 18.25 | 41 |
SUMMARY
3-Stars
- Quarterback: Sam Bradford (Eagles)
- Running Back: Boldin/White/Lewis (Patriots), DeMarco Murray (Eagles), Randle/McFadden (Cowboys), Eddie Lacy (Packers)
- Receivers: Matthews/Agholor/Ertz (Eagles)
2-Stars
- Quarterback: Tom Brady (Patriots), Tony Romo (Cowboys), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Peyton Manning (Broncos), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
- Running Back: CJ Anderson (Broncos)
- Receivers: Edelman/Amendola/Gronkowski (Patriots), Bryant/T.Williams/Witten (Cowboys), Cobb/Adams/Rodgers (Packers), D.Thomas/Sanders/Daniels (Broncos), J.Jones/R.White (Falcons)
1-Star
- Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Andrew Luck (Colts), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
- Running Back: Coleman/Freeman (Falcons), Andre Ellington (Cardinals), Frank Gore (Colts), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
- Receivers: Fitzgerald/J.Brown/M.Floyd (Cardinals), Hilton/A.Johnson (Colts), K.Allen/S.Johnson (Chargers)
