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Vegas Value Chart: Week 1

An early Vegas-based snapshot of the teams and positions to target in this week's DFS game slate.

Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week.  Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week.  Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves.  Let's take a look.

TeamOpponentOddsTeam TotalGame TotalPassingRunningTeam Defense
New England Pittsburgh -7 29.5 52 ++ +++  
Philadelphia Atlanta -2.5 28.75 55 +++ +++  
Dallas NY Giants -6 28.75 51.5 ++ +++  
Green Bay Chicago -7 28.25 49.5 ++ +++  
Denver Baltimore -4.5 26.75 49 ++ ++  
Atlanta Philadelphia 2.5 26.25 55 ++ +  
Arizona New Orleans -2.5 25.25 48 + +  
Indianapolis Buffalo -3 24.5 46 + +  
San Diego Detroit -3 24.25 45.5 + +  
Miami Washington -4 23.75 43.5      
Cincinnati Oakland -3.5 23.5 43.5      
Seattle St. Louis -4.5 22.75 41     +++
New Orleans Arizona 2.5 22.75 48      
NY Giants Dallas 6 22.75 51.5      
Pittsburgh New England 7 22.5 52      
Carolina Jacksonville -3.5 22.25 41     ++
Baltimore Denver 4.5 22.25 49      
Minnesota San Francisco -3 22.25 41.5     +
Tampa Bay Tennessee -3 22 41     ++
NY Jets Cleveland -3.5 21.75 40     +++
Buffalo Indianapolis 3 21.5 46      
Detroit San Diego 3 21.25 45.5      
Chicago Green Bay 7 21.25 49.5      
Houston Kansas City -1 21 41      
Kansas City Houston 1 20 41      
Oakland Cincinnati 3.5 20 43.5      
Washington Miami 4 19.75 43.5      
San Francisco Minnesota 3 19.25 41.5      
Tennessee Tampa Bay 3 19 41      
Jacksonville Carolina 3.5 18.75 41      
Cleveland NY Jets 3.5 18.25 40      
St. Louis Seattle 4.5 18.25 41      

SUMMARY

3-Stars

  • Quarterback:  Sam Bradford (Eagles)
  • Running Back:  Boldin/White/Lewis (Patriots), DeMarco Murray (Eagles), Randle/McFadden (Cowboys), Eddie Lacy (Packers)
  • Receivers:  Matthews/Agholor/Ertz (Eagles)

2-Stars

  • Quarterback:  Tom Brady (Patriots), Tony Romo (Cowboys), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Peyton Manning (Broncos), Matt Ryan (Falcons)
  • Running Back:  CJ Anderson (Broncos)
  • Receivers:  Edelman/Amendola/Gronkowski (Patriots), Bryant/T.Williams/Witten (Cowboys), Cobb/Adams/Rodgers (Packers), D.Thomas/Sanders/Daniels (Broncos), J.Jones/R.White (Falcons)

1-Star

  • Quarterback: Carson Palmer (Cardinals), Andrew Luck (Colts), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
  • Running Back:  Coleman/Freeman (Falcons), Andre Ellington (Cardinals), Frank Gore (Colts), Melvin Gordon (Chargers)
  • Receivers: Fitzgerald/J.Brown/M.Floyd (Cardinals), Hilton/A.Johnson (Colts), K.Allen/S.Johnson (Chargers)