Cost Efficiency Breakdown: DraftKings Week 13

A look into the shrewd DraftKings Week 13 plays in terms of cost efficiency. Who provides the most bang for your buck?

Week 12’s primary cash lineup certainly won me some money, but it left me wanting:

 

 

DK Pts

QB

Brian Hoyer

14.9

RB

Thomas Rawls

14.1

RB

T.J. Yeldon

12.2

WR

Julio Jones

10.6

WR

DeAndre Hopkins

8.6

WR

Doug Baldwin

41.5

Flex

Adrian Peterson

35.7

TE

Jacob Tamme

11.9

D/ST

Kansas City

5.0

   

154.5

I loved it enough to sneak it into a few low-dollar GPPs, but didn’t cash in a single one. I guess I’m thankful that Jones’ and Hopkins’ disappearing acts were hidden by the greatness of Peterson and the right-place-right-timeness of Baldwin.

Moving on, let’s take a run through my ideal Week 13 cash lineup, as always with an eye on cost efficiency:

QUARTERBACK

 

Sal

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Ryan Fitzpatrick

5,200

23.39

4.498

43.503

Cam Newton

7,400

29.48

3.983

43.250

Ben Roethlisberger

6,600

27.27

4.132

43.149

Alex Smith

5,100

22.22

4.358

41.086

Jay Cutler

5,100

21.71

4.258

39.681

Matt Schaub

5,000

21.16

4.233

38.945

Andy Dalton

6,400

24.77

3.871

38.528

Austin Davis

5,000

19.82

3.963

35.284

The Cash Play

There’s been just no stopping Cam Newton’s ($7,400) feet, law of averages be damned. Newton has run for a touchdown in seven of his 11 games, already his highest total since 2012, and they’re not fluky – Newton has taken more carries from inside the 10 than the likes of Frank Gore and Jeremy Hill. He’s the clear lynchpin of their short-yardage gameplan, so he typically only needs average air numbers to provide solid value. And over the last five weeks, he’s averaged 17.9 points on passing numbers alone. Newton is expensive, but Week 13’s many low-cost value plays should allow you to shoehorn him into your lineup.

…and cash considerations

The last meeting between the Steelers and Colts, of course, resulted in 522 yards for Ben Roethlisberger ($6,600) and 51 points for Pittsburgh. Those are unprojectable totals, of course, but this week’s matchup does looks poise to provide the most yardage and scoring of the week. If you can’t work Newton into your lineup, there’s little drop-off to Roethlisberger. He’s commanding one of the league’s most high-powered offenses, throws to two dynamic targets, and faces very little challenge from a mediocre Colts defense.

GPP Plays

Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200), fresh off a four-TD evisceration of the Dolphins, draws a very nice Week 13 matchup but doesn’t project to much ownership in a crowded week. The Giants have allowed 8.87 yards per attempt and seven red zone touchdown passes over their last four games. Armed with two Pro Bowl-caliber wideouts, Fitzpatrick is an easy dice roll for 20.8+ points… If Colts-Steelers winds up the high-octane shootout we all expect, Matt Hasselbeck ($5,300) could soar beyond 4x value. The Colts have thrown the ball plenty (38.2 times per game) with Hasselbeck subbing for Andrew Luck, and will likely need to approach 40 again to keep pace in a wild game… Cam Newton and Russell Wilson, draw the acclaim, but few QBs run the ball better and more often than Alex Smith ($5,100). Over the last four weeks, he’s racked up 179 ground yards – 38 more than Newton – to go along with improved passing production from what we’ve come to expect. The Raiders’ leaky pass defense sets up Smith as a darkhorse for 20+ points, depending largely upon his rushing opportunity and Travis Kelce’s ability to find openings in the secondary.

RUNNING BACK

 

Sal

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

DeAngelo Williams

5,600

25.10

4.482

44.905

Shaun Draughn

4,000

17.39

4.348

36.262

Charcandrick West

5,200

20.54

3.949

35.796

Doug Martin

5,900

21.49

3.643

33.780

Thomas Rawls

5,400

20.01

3.705

33.143

Adrian Peterson

6,600

22.63

3.429

32.618

David Johnson

3,400

12.95

3.807

27.398

Giovani Bernard

4,500

15.16

3.370

26.242

LeSean McCoy

5,700

17.46

3.063

25.597

T.J. Yeldon

4,800

15.06

3.138

24.356

The Cash Plays

The chalkiest play of the week will likely by David Johnson ($3,400), who will serve as Arizona’s lead back in a sneaky-good matchup with the Rams. There’s a lot of defensive talent there, but that supremely inept offense hemorrhages turnovers and keeps its tired defense on the field for far too long. There are holes in his game for sure, but Johnson should rack up touches as the Cardinals build a healthy lead, then help to ice the game down the stretch. And he brings as much big-play potential to the table as just about anyone. A total below the needed 10.2 points would be an upset… I don’t love DeAngelo Williams’ ($5,600) prospects as much as others, but he’s the shrewd play in that presumably wild game. It’s hard to pick a wrong Steeler, but with things being equal, you want to slot the running back into your cash contests. The 32-year-old has been slowed tremendously on the ground over the last two weeks, but remains the overwhelming lead back (95.4% of rushes over the last three weeks). What pushes him over the top is the extent to which the Steelers run the ball near the goal line – Williams has taken 11 rushes from inside the 10 over the last three weeks, far more than anyone else. This is a little too cheap for such a touch-dominant back in a high-octane matchup… Javorius Allen ($5,400) didn’t disappoint as Baltimore’s lead dog. His workload (16 touches) was underwhelming, but he ran well and saw the team’s second-highest target total (five). He only needs 16.2 to reach value, but should wind up near his ceiling against a Dolphins defense that’s allowed 20.0 points to the last four lead backs it’s faced.

…and cash considerations

LeSean McCoy ($5,700) has been as consistent a dual threat as just about anyone of late, averaging 21.5 touches over six games since his return to the lineup. And that floor looks even higher this week; Karlos Williams looks unlikely to play, and Anthony Dixon (22 touches through 11 games) is a special teamer at heart and no real threat to the workload. He’s not much of a red zone threat, but usage alone makes him a borderline RB1 play… As always, Jonathan Stewart ($5,300) would be an easy top-12 RB play if not for Cam Newton’s presence. I still like his general floor, though. Newton gobbles up rushing opportunities for sure, but Stewart still projects to 20 touches in a cake matchup with what the Saints call a defense. And even with Newton’s goal line prowess on full display, Stewart has seen seven rushes from inside the 10 over the last four weeks… With Matt Cassel back under center, expect Dallas to return to a more run-centered script revolving around Darren McFadden ($5,300). Remember that McFadden averaged a whopping 26.3 touches from Weeks 7-10.

GPP Plays

There’s a lot of contrarian appeal in Adrian Peterson ($6,600). The Seahawks don’t shut down the run quite as well as you probably think, allowing four teams to top 100 ground yards over their last seven games. The two teams who failed were San Francisco, headlined by Shaun Draughn, and the Steelers in a passing-game shootout. Peterson is worlds ahead of Draughn, and there’s virtually no chance of a downfield onslaught in the Seahawks-Vikings matchup… I like Doug Martin ($5,900) just fine, especially against a Falcons defense that Adrian Peterson just eviscerated Sunday. But I’ll be using him sparingly; Martin isn’t much of a receiving or red zone factor, so his value is largely tied to huge plays and game flow… Charcandrick West ($5,200) and Spencer Ware ($4,900) are dicey plays, but one or both could pay off mightily in a GPP. West is a true dual-threat weapon who’s excelled in the red zone, while Ware proved that virtually anyone can post numbers in Kansas City’s RB-friendly scheme. I prefer Ware this week; he could easily see 10-15 touches as West returns from a hamstring strain, an injury that’s somewhat prone to aggravation anyway.

WIDE RECEIVER

 

Sal

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Danny Amendola

4,700

22.03

4.688

44.006

Doug Baldwin

3,800

18.36

4.830

41.390

Antonio Brown

8,600

28.00

3.255

34.449

Anquan Boldin

4,100

16.04

3.912

31.340

Jarvis Landry

6,700

21.80

3.254

30.384

Julio Jones

9,000

26.19

2.910

29.791

Odell Beckham Jr.

8,900

25.25

2.837

28.512

Alshon Jeffery

6,900

20.81

3.015

27.510

Sammy Watkins

5,600

17.69

3.159

26.570

Kamar Aiken

4,800

15.68

3.267

25.879

Vincent Jackson

4,700

14.92

3.174

24.514

Brandon LaFell

4,800

14.57

3.035

23.165

The Cash Plays

There’s no better on-paper play than Odell Beckham, Jr. ($8,900), who’s back to dominating targets (31.6% over the last four games) and cornerbacks (16.2 yards per catch) on the regular. Most importantly, Darrelle Revis is sitting, and his cornerback teammates have been spotty at best. Antonio Cromartie has been roasted badly by the deep ball all year and allowed four TDs over his last five, while Buster Skrine has allowed the eight-most yards after catch among full-time slot men. Beckham moves around the formation a lot and should treat this secondary as a buffet; his projection of 7 for 116 and 0.44 touchdowns actually looks like a floor… I don’t buy too much into recent player-versus-team history, but it’s hard to ignore what Julio Jones ($9,000) has done of late against Lovie Smith’s Buccaneers. His last three matchups with them have gone 9-161-2, 8-119, and 12-162-1, good for a scintillating average of 30.4 DraftKings points. With game flow no longer on the Falcons’ side – they’ve lost four straight games and five of six – there’s just no reason not to roster the guy, especially with his salary decrease… It would be foolhardy to keep chasing Doug Baldwin’s ($3,800) recent production, but at this salary, there’s no chase required. DraftKings again priced Baldwin as a near-punt play, despite a very solid target share (24.8% over the last four games) in a passing game that’s increased its yardage output for three straight weeks. This matchup with the Vikings won’t emulate last week’s Seattle-Pittsburgh shootout, but Baldwin needs just 11.4 points to hit his value marker. Five catches for 64 yards is well within Baldwin’s wheelhouse, and there’s upside for a decent bit more.

…and cash considerations

There’s been little stopping the Eric Decker ($6,300) Train – he’s splitting targets almost evenly with Brandon Marshall of late and has found the end zone in eight of his 10 games. There’s not a ton of ceiling in play with Marshall available, but note that this week, Marshall is likely to draw some shadow coverage from shutdown man Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. The Giants’ other cornerbacks have been shaky at best, so Decker carries as much upside has he has all year into Week 13… I won’t try to talk you out of investing so little in Danny Amendola’s ($4,700) return. Pressed firmly into Julian Edelman’s low-impact but high-volume slot role, Amendola needs just 14.1 points to reach cash value, and he’s notched 17.9 and 23.7 since Edelman’s injury. Neither belongs in the same room as a talent like Julio Jones or Odell Beckham, Jr., but either can create full-PPR fireworks in this offense, with this small-ball quarterback. That goes double with Rob Gronkowski on the shelf… Alshon Jeffery ($6,900) will be very a chalky play against the 49ers, who have been worked over via the pass all year. I love the talent, the matchup, the game flow expectation, the salary, and the high ownership; it’s hard to go wrong here… It’s a good thing Allen Hurns has already been ruled out, because Allen Robinson’s ($7,300) fast-rising salary would be prohibitive otherwise. As it stands, though, Robinson has as sunny a Week 13 outlook as just about anyone. He’s drawn 11+ targets in four of his last six, and with Hurns’ 18% target share up for grabs, that looks like an absolute floor. The Titans’ cornerbacks have been predictably burnable, so there’s very strong upside here...

GPP Plays

Anquan Boldin’s ($4,100) return from injury has gone as well as can be expected. With Blaine Gabbert looking competent, Boldin has notched 93 yards in both games back. He probably doesn’t even need to find the end zone to reach his 16.4-point GPP marker… Vincent Jackson ($4,700) hasn’t been sexy, but he’s been consistently targeted (26.4% over his last four games) and has shown well in the red zone. He projects to a 5-74 line, with a solid shot at finding the end zone in an offense that throws the ball incessantly near the goal line... No one wants Kamar Aiken ($4,800), a marginal talent in a toothless offense quarterbacked by Matt Schaub. But there are so few No. 1 options this low on the salary spectrum, and none whose offenses project to throw as much as Baltimore. He’ll be leaned on heavily throughout the rest of the year, and $4,800 might be as low as he comes.

TIGHT END

 

Sal

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Jacob Tamme

3,700

16.03

4.333

34.704

Delanie Walker

5,700

18.10

3.176

27.023

Crockett Gillmore

3,600

12.72

3.532

25.191

Benjamin Watson

4,400

13.63

3.098

22.871

Heath Miller

3,300

11.01

3.336

22.133

Julius Thomas

4,000

12.47

3.118

22.019

Kyle Rudolph

3,700

11.82

3.196

21.978

Travis Kelce

4,700

13.81

2.938

21.831

The Cash Play

Scott Chandler’s ($2,500) miniscule salary makes him the top value play at TE in Rob Gronkowski’s absence. Chandler has actually been a viable if low-volume weapon all year in the Patriots’ TE-heavy scheme, with 14 catches and two touchdowns through his first 10 games as Gronkowski’s backup. Subbing last week, he turned 11 targets into a 5-58 line and caught a touchdown. Chandler needs just 7.5 points to cash this week; reaching 5-7 catches and/or finding the end zone would make him the play of the week.

…and cash considerations

With Allen Hurns out for Sunday and Bryan Walters likely to miss, Julius Thomas ($4,000) looks significantly underpriced. He’s quietly been something of a target monster, averaging 8.2 since Week 6, and is line to lap that number easily this week. The Jaguars go exceptionally pass-heavy near the goal line, boosting Thomas’ TD potential even further… As the Titans’ No. 1 receiving option, Delanie Walker ($5,700) has carved out a nice rapport with Marcus Mariota. Overall, he’s caught 6+ balls in eight of ten games, to go along with a WR-like 14.5 yards per catch over his last four. With Rob Gronkowski out, Walker is as safe as they come… The Raiders seem to have tightened their TE defense a bit, but they’ve still been burned by the last two dynamic ones they’ve faced (Walker and Ladarius Green). Athletic targets have scorched them up the seams, making Travis Kelce ($4,700) a fine value play. If he can find the end zone, as TEs do against the Raiders, his 14.1-point marker will be a formality.

GPP Plays

In four games with Leonard Hankerson either out or limited, Jacob Tamme ($3,700) has averaged 9.5 targets and a 7-82 receiving line. Hankerson will sit again this week, so it’s puzzling Tamme is projecting to such low ownership. He should again brush up against tournament value… Antonio Gates ($4,900) has seen both his salary and his ownership slip as he’s under-produced through several injuries. It’s time to cash in – this is as low as either will be again. Gates is still seeing nearly 20% of Philip Rivers’ targets and remains a big part of the teams goal line plans… Ryan Hewitt ($2,500) should see the bulk of action in place of Tyler Eifert. He would only need to catch 4-5 balls or a touchdown to return GPP value.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

 

Sal

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Buccaneers

2,500

7.50

3.001

16.440

Chiefs

3,000

8.35

2.783

16.078

Titans

2,600

7.24

2.786

14.993

Texans

2,500

6.52

2.606

13.303

Panthers

3,500

7.85

2.242

12.562

Steelers

2,800

6.34

2.265

11.409

Jets

2,700

6.17

2.284

11.346

Dolphins

2,300

5.41

2.353

10.950

The Cash Play

The Raiders offense has improved for sure, but it’s been underwhelming of late. They’ve posted just 51 points over the last three games, while Kansas City ($3,000) has allowed more than 18 just once over their last seven. Even with Justin Houston likely to miss, there’s plenty of juice here.

…and cash considerations

Follow the chalk to the Bengals ($3,400) and Patriots ($3,400), both of whom take on offenses likely to score near the bottom of the league… Since I so love stacking a high-usage, heavy-favorite RB with his defense, many of my David Johnson lineups will call for the Cardinals ($3,900). They’ve been fairly slack in terms of sacks and takeaways, but the Rams’ anemic offense and Nick Foles lining up under center is a remedy for that… It seems unconscionable to roster a defense against Drew Brees and the Saints, but the Panthers ($3,500) are officially ablaze. They’ve forced a league-high 12 turnovers over the last four games and a studly 13 sacks over their last four games. And the Saints have managed just 20 points over the last two weeks, against two underwhelming defenses.

GPP Plays

The projection model warns us not to sleep on the Titans ($2,600), who boast great sack potential and virtually zero ownership. Blake Bortles has shown some real progression, but is still prone to sacks and turnovers, so Tennessee’s playmaking defensive front could feast.