Cost Efficiency Breakdown: DraftKings Week 10

A look into the smart DraftKings Week 10 plays in terms of cost efficiency. Who provides the most bang for your buck?

Last week’s ideal lineup brought solid, if unspectacular results:

 

 

Sal

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

QB

Philip Rivers

6900

15.2

2.203

RB

Todd Gurley

6900

19.9

2.884

RB

Doug Martin

5700

5.3

0.930

WR

Antonio Brown

8100

49.6

6.123

WR

Alshon Jeffery

6700

28.1

4.194

WR

Stevie Johnson

3200

13.8

4.313

Flex

Darren McFadden

4300

16.2

3.767

TE

Jordan Reed

4500

10.8

2.400

D/ST

Broncos

3000

7.0

2.333

   

49300

165.9

3.365

 

It’s clear that my investment in Rivers’ value went for naught. That and Martin’s utter flop mitigated the fun of Brown’s monstrous day, but this lineup would’ve looked very average without that 49.6. It won across the board in its cash contests, though, and certainly wasn’t my bitterest disappointment – one of my tournament lineups “featured” Chris Thompson, who went touchless until garbage time and bombed my chances there.

Here’s a look through my top Week 10 cash lineup, which projects to 175.78 points:

QUARTERBACK

QBs projected to 19+ pts

 

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Blake Bortles

23.29

4.159

40.143

Kirk Cousins

20.52

3.947

35.760

Alex Smith

19.49

3.898

34.413

Josh McCown

19.46

3.892

34.334

Cam Newton

22.66

3.238

30.828

Drew Brees

23.06

3.116

29.923

Aaron Rodgers

21.99

2.932

27.496

Tom Brady

22.89

2.662

25.477

The Cash Play: Blake Bortles ($5,600)

The week’s top projected scorer, Bortles remains underpriced, considering the perfect storm that’s swirled right into his wheelhouse. His receivers are blossoming into true downfield and red zone winners, his line struggles mightily in run blocking, and his team finds itself trailing down the stretch nearly every week. Bortles has thrown multiple touchdowns in four straight games and soared past 4x scoring value in three of them. With a dream secondary matchup and a robust red zone outlook, he projects as a true QB1 with top-three upside for the week.

…and cash considerations

Based upon Cam Newton’s ($7,000) typical ground production, he only requires a passing line around 225 yards and a touchdown to return value in a given week. That’s a great QB1 floor, and a threshold we can confidently project regardless of whether the Panthers dominate Tennessee. The Titans pass defense has finally been exposed, so it’s easy to see Newton hitting those marks… There’s finally real value again in Tom Brady ($8,600) and Aaron Rodgers ($7,500),the top two weekly salaries who often find their stats bogged down in game flow. That’s always a worry, but both have QB1 floors and rostering them typically ensures you’re following the chalk. Rodgers offers noticeable salary relief, but Brady’s matchup features an elite red zone outlook and an eye-popping 30.75-point Vegas production.

GPP Plays

It seems counterintuitive as a watcher of football, but Kirk Cousins ($5,200) is shaping as a fine GPP dice roll. There’s a little less “dice roll” to it than it seems – since Week 5, quarterbacks have posted 20, 21, 26, 41, and 36 points against the Saints’ pathetic defense. That’s a 25-point average, and Cousins needs just 20.8 to return value… The Matt Cassel ($5,000) bandwagon is understandably empty, which makes him an intriguing play against a horrid Tampa Bay defense. Only the Saints have allowed more red zone touchdown passes, so Cassel’s QB-minimum salary buys you a strong shot at a 2-TD line. That would get him appreciably close to the 20 points he needs… With relatively no ownership likely, Alex Smith ($5,000) looks like a nice contrarian play that can swing a big tournament. Vegas likes Kansas City to play from behind, and the Broncos’ daunting secondary will be short-handed due to Aqib Talib’s suspension.

RUNNING BACK

RBs projected to 16+ pts

 

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Jeremy Langford

21.56

4.492

41.720

Lamar Miller

22.55

4.175

39.649

DeAngelo Williams

25.43

3.912

39.460

Charcandrick West

18.76

3.908

33.846

Darren McFadden

16.99

3.467

28.578

Mark Ingram

19.30

3.015

26.492

DeMarco Murray

18.89

3.047

26.485

Todd Gurley

19.09

2.615

22.850

Justin Forsett

16.15

2.692

21.637

The cash plays: Todd Gurley ($7,300), DeAngelo Williams ($6,500), Darren McFadden ($4,900)

Gurley’s ascent to the top of the RB salary heap was swift and decisive. And with a huge chunk of RB1s out of commission or on bye, he and Williams are the chalkiest plays of the week. Gurley has gradually lost salary value during his breakthrough but remains as steady as they come, the centerpiece of his offense with pass game and short yardage value that increases by the week… Williams’ 2015 success has been absolutely stunning. Much of it is owed to the Steelers’ suddenly dominant run-blocking line, but for whatever reason, Williams is a true weekly threat for both monstrous usage (75 touches over three starts) and a great touchdown outlook (14 runs from inside the 10). The sledding will be tougher with Landry Jones under center, but the usage potential is just through the roof… McFadden’s salary remains embarrassingly low for a bellcow back who’s seen his success thus far. The Tampa run defense is stout, but McFadden’s pass game usage (22 targets over the last four games) tends to compensate well. He’ll need 14.7 points to reach cash value, which looks like an absolute floor.

…and cash considerations

LeGarrette Blount’s ($4,900) Week 10 projections – 18 rushes for 85 yards and half a touchdown – are solid and don’t even account for the loss of Dion Lewis. The team has yet to show a hint of trust in James White, and Brandon Bolden is a core special teamer and little more, so the power game’s share of the offense should become more stable to some degree going forward. Blount is a 7-point favorite in a game projected to feature red zone fireworks… Mark Ingram ($6,400) and DeMarco Murray ($6,200) look like moderately popular plays who should score well in Week 10. Ingram has been a model of RB1 consistency in terms of usage and goal line play. He’s struggled to reach cash value at times, but carries no usage concerns whatsoever into a tasty matchup with a defense that’s allowed 5.3 yards per rush over four weeks… Murray hosts a fledgling Dolphins team that tends to fall into early holes; he projects to 114 scrimmage yards and could see significantly more if the Eagles jump to a lead… Antonio Andrews ($3,700) looks like strongest cash punt. Bishop Sankey is all but phased out of the Titans’ plans, and David Cobb isn’t up to speed. Tennessee’s script doesn’t look great for rushing production, but Andrews should dominate what’s there.

GPP Plays

The Broncos have a favorable outlook as six-point home favorites, so the hot hand between C.J. Anderson ($3,800) should certainly flirt with 4x value. Over the last four games, the two have combined for six rushes from inside the 10, so there’s RB2+ potential if one dominates the backfield. I’d much rather invest in the cheaper and finally healthy Anderson… Charles Sims ($3,500) has eaten noticeably into Doug Martin’s share, and over the last 2-3 weeks he’s been more dynamic. His 32 Week 9 snaps were a good sign, and if the Buccaneers fall behind Dallas, he’s likely to approach that mark again… Charcandrick West ($4,800) has an imposing matchup with a defense that’s been borderline dominant, but if Kansas City jumps to an unlikely lead, he could certainly hit 4x value. He’s picking up 4.71 yards per rush as the starter and averaged three rushes from inside the 10.

WIDE RECEIVER

WRs projected to 16+ pts

 

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Stefon Diggs

23.29

4.567

44.077

Alshon Jeffery

27.22

3.833

39.998

John Brown

18.19

3.307

28.207

Mike Evans

19.00

2.794

24.361

Odell Beckham, Jr.

21.71

2.467

22.995

Allen Robinson

18.08

2.699

22.950

Demaryius Thomas

17.79

2.405

20.287

Jarvis Landry

16.44

2.453

19.891

Randall Cobb

16.15

2.411

19.382

Calvin Johnson

16.05

2.139

17.141

The Cash Plays: Alshon Jeffery ($7,100), Michael Crabtree ($5,800), Stefon Diggs ($5,100)

Jeffery’s price tag is creeping up much slower than we’d expect. He’s topped eight catches and 118 yards in all three games since returning from injury; with or without Matt Forte in the lineup, Jeffery is the offensive focal point. And only the Patriots and Washington are throwing more in the red zone than Jeffery’s Bears. His floor and ceiling are both far too high for this salary, and his cash value simply can’t be understated, especially against the Rams’ burnable cornerbacks… Diggs looks like the week’s top value play, a dynamic No. 1 wideout who dominates targets (28.5% over the last four weeks) and faces a particularly poor secondary in Oakland. His Week 9 flop ended a four-week streak of reaching 5x value, with an average line of 8 catches for 105 yards. Diggs isn’t much of a red zone threat, but he’s been nothing short of phenomenal in accruing consistent usage and yardage totals… Crabtree is probably playing beyond his depth – he’s neared or topped 6x value in each of the last two weeks and will face an underrated secondary this Sunday. But like Diggs, he represents another high-floor way to follow the Week 10 chalk and keep pace in cash contests. Amari Cooper has gotten the attention, but Crabtree has seen a jaw-dropping 80 targets at the halfway point and is winning both in and out of the red zone.

…and cash considerations

A date with the Ravens’ truly beatable secondary puts both Allen Robinson ($6,700) and Allen Hurns ($5,800) into the WR1 limelight. Baltimore has hemorrhaged fantasy points to wideouts, so either (or both) make for very sexy stacks with Blake Bortles. The two account for a great target share (45.2% over four games) and are producing touchdowns at a remarkable rate. Hurns has found the end zone in six straight games, and Robinson has turned five of his red zone looks into scores… With Vincent Jackson not practicing, Mike Evans ($6,800) is again shaping up as a cash WR1 option. He hasn’t been finding the end zone, but Evans is dominating secondaries and maximizing what Jameis Winston has been able to give him. With 40 targets over the last three weeks and 17 back in Week 3, Evans has proven how capable he is to post huge usage games in addition to his monstrous scoring potential… Odell Beckham Jr. ($8,800) is exceptionally pricey, but represents the best chance for 3x value among the top salary tier. The Giants project to 23.75 points in a likely home shootout, and Beckham has been exceptional in the red zone (three TDs on five targets over four weeks).

GPP Plays

If he’s playing, John Brown ($5,500) has the look of a GPP winner. He’s commanded 24.6% of targets over his last four games, and for all of his production, he’s hinted at even more by drawing long pass interference calls. The matchup is daunting, but Brown won’t be shadowed by Richard Sherman and possesses the downfield chops to produce splash plays at any time. Injuries are injuries, but this salary is noticeably low for such potential... With or without Brown on the field, teammate Michael Floyd ($3,800) looks like a solid swing at 4x value. He’s seen 20 targets over the last three weeks and found the end zone in each game. Larry Fitzgerald’s early-season strangehold has loosened, so there are big games on the horizon for both Brown and Floyd… DeAndre Hopkins has been great, but the Texans’ No. 2 receivers, Nate Washington ($4,400) and Cecil Shorts ($3,000), have been quietly dominant fantasy values all year. Washington has scored 17+ points three times, while Shorts has notched 9+ in all five of his appearances. Most of that production has come at or near the minimum salary, where the two again find themselves for Week 10. Washington is the stronger play, but is questionable with a hip injury, so I have more interest in Shorts. If Washington can’t go, Shorts will be in line for WR2 usage in a game the Texans are likely to trail from gun to gun.

TIGHT END

TEs projected to 12+ pts

 

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Delanie Walker

17.80

3.787

31.957

Ben Watson

16.27

3.784

30.533

Gary Barnidge

17.38

3.621

30.196

Jimmy Graham

15.92

3.250

25.939

Jordan Reed

15.05

3.271

25.377

Charles Clay

13.75

3.354

24.870

Greg Olsen

17.18

2.727

22.608

Tyler Eifert

14.96

2.579

19.948

Rob Gronkowski

18.31

2.288

19.582

Martellus Bennett

13.16

2.800

20.310

The cash play: Delanie Walker ($4,700)

Walker posted a beastly Week 9, and it shouldn’t have been too surprising. He’s seen solid usage ever since Week 2, regardless of QB, and drawn moderately impressive red zone attention as well. I like him a lot in a matchup that should require plenty of Marcus Mariota’s passing. The bevy of great weekly TE options has kept his price tag nice and manageable, so 3x value (14.1 points) is perfectly reasonable, especially as an underdog.

…and cash considerations

The ultra-talented Jordan Reed ($4,600) has clicked with Kirk Cousins – as much as anyone can, I guess – and has been made an offensive focal point throughout 2015. And while his downfield dynamism is limited by his QB, he’s responded with outstanding efficiency (a 70.4% catch rate, despite last Week 9’s dropfest). But most importantly, Washington has thrown more red zone passes than anyone over their last four games. Reed’s hefty share from there (10 of 32 targets) gives him the week’s second-best TD outlook to go with his solid usage and efficiency rates… Greg Olsen ($6,300) is ultra-consistent, with 65+ yards and/or a touchdown in every game since Week 2. But the algorithms have taken notice, and 3x value looks less predictable each week. I still like the play, but he needs to land near his absolute ceiling to reach his multiplier.

GPP Plays

With the Browns offense's bandwagon emptying rapidly, DFSers seem to expect Gary Barnidge’s ($4,800) breakout to wind down rapidly. I’m still a believer in Barnidge’s game, but more importantly, in his crucial offensive role. Dating back to Week 3, Barnidge has seen a 20.6% share of the passing game – and 28.1% in the red zone. Lawrence Timmons and the Steelers are easy targets for opposing TEs, so Barnidge looks poised to post one of his better lines while sporting his lowest salary and ownership in months… We only sporadically see the best of Rob Gronkowski ($8,000) – game flow tends to work against him, plus Brandon Lafell is no back in the mix – but this is one of the better weeks to take a stab at a huge game. The Patriots’ monstrous Vegas projection against the Giants’ thoroughly overmatched defense points to Gronkowski dusting his projections here… Look for the Vikings to involve Kyle Rudolph ($3,000) more this week than they typically like to. The Raiders’ inability to slow TEs has become borderline legendary, so Rudolph seems a lock to top the two-target mark he’s seen for three straight games.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

D/STs projected to 7+ pts

 

DK Pts

Pts/$1K

H-Value

Eagles

8.09

2.996

17.045

Buccaneers

6.90

2.758

14.484

Panthers

8.25

2.501

14.368

Steelers

6.91

2.303

12.103

Kansas City

6.26

2.407

12.041

Packers

7.16

2.236

11.962

Rams

6.43

1.785

9.053

The cash play: Steelers ($3,000)

I don’t love this unit one bit, but I love the matchup and the stack with DeAngelo Williams. With the ground game likely to dominate the Steelers’ focus, the Browns should see their time of possession limited. Josh McCown’s injury and general history of inaccuracy also bode well for their prospects.

…and cash considerations

Vegas (and the free world) figure the Panthers ($3,300) to control their matchup with Tennessee. That and their upper-tier sack potential against a rookie QB and his shoddy front line make Carolina a very solid play… The Rams ($3,600) aren’t a value play by any means, but I like their chances of forcing Jay Cutler into turnovers.

GPP Plays

The Dolphins offense has been streaky, and I think we’ll see the rough side Sunday in a road matchup with the Eagles ($2,700). Both sides point to a strong pass rush showing, and the Eagles are tied for the league lead with 11 takeaways over the last four games.