This week, we'll discuss the following topics:
Dez Bryant will miss significant time with his foot injury. Looking at Week 2, Dallas still has one of the higher team totals on the board as they host Philadephia. Which Dallas player (of any position) is the best cash game option? Which is the best GPP/Tournament option?
Justin Howe: Jason Witten is assuredly the main beneficiary here. He's long been Tony Romo's true security blanket -- never for big plays, but who cares -- and was already a low-end TE1 alongside Bryant. He's now a legitimate threat to catch 6-9 weekly passes, depending on game flow. And Sunday's red zone usage was very reassuring; Witten has traditionally seen modest usage there but now looks like a weekly touchdown threat.
Terrance Williams will be highly owned in tournaments this week, and he's not bad as a deep ball/touchdown play but under no circumstances at this cost. He's priced higher than Jordan Matthews and Brandon Marshall and simply isn't that caliber of player or DFS option. I'm far more interested in Lance Dunbar, a clear-cut passing down back. With tons of snaps coming against the wild-eyed Eagles, Dunbar projects to catch another handful of balls and generate open-field yardage for just $3,900.
John Lee: It may be difficult to believe, but I think the player who benefits the most from the Bryant injury is Tony Romo, at least in the context of this question (fantasy output against the Eagles this weekend). Teams that face the Eagles have averaged 69.9 plays per game since last year, while the league average is 64.0 plays; this 10% expected increase will augment Romo's stat line most notably because he will be the one touching the ball on every play. None of the Cowboys receivers are talented enough to prosper in Bryant's absence -- Witten is too old/slow, Williams is too inconsistent, and Cole Beasley is too small to get appreciable redzone action. Also, Dunbar will steal receptions from each of those receivers, as he did on Sunday against the Giants. For those reasons, do not expect the Cowboys to have a "go-to" receiver in the passing game; instead, they will likely employ a passing scheme that involves short passes to take advantage of a given matchups each week. So avoid the Dallas receivers and focus your cash games on Romo this weekend. It should pay off well.
John, that is an excellent response. While I was bullish on Romo for this week due to the matchup, this answer still surprised me a bit due to much of the coverage on Dallas focusing on their season-long outlook and Romo's being downgraded. Using that as a litmus test of sorts, do you guys think that Romo is a nice contrarian GPP play too? He has volume and shouldn't be as highly owned as he would be in a normal week with Bryant in the fold. That sounds like a nice recipe to me. For John and everyone, assuming you'd use Romo in a tournament, who would you stack him with this week? Being that FantasyAces uses a two-quarterback lineup, it's likely that two stacks must be used to hit your lineup's ceiling.
Will Grant: Williams is sitting at $4,700 and Beasley is sitting at $4,300 for this week. Neither really leaps off the page as a "must stack" with Romo in this case. Even Witten isn't a bargain at $4,750 but at least he'll be a bit more consistent with his receptions (five of his eight receptions against the Giants came in the fourth quarter with Bryant out of the game). I think Witten and Romo are good cash plays, but if you're looking for a GPP quarterback, I think I'd pass on Romo in favor of a one who has a more consistent stack at receiver.
Chris Feery: Witten is the best cash game option as he will receive a bump in both targets and red zone looks. As Justin mentioned, Witten has always been Romo's safety net. I expect him to lean on him even more while Bryant is out. I also believe the fears of his decline heading into 2015 were slightly overstated. Witten has at least another productive year under his belt. For GPPs, I like Beasley and expect him to carve out a significant role in the offense quickly. He has hands and can create space, with more opportunity he could pay off nicely. It will also be interesting to see what Terrence Williams does with the opportunity on front of him, but my money will be on Witten and Beasley being the biggest beneficiaries of Bryant's absence.
Jeff Pasquino: I had to (discount) double-check the multipliers for FantasyAces before I crafted this response, but I actually am right there with John that the Dallas passing game will be worth more now with Bryant out. The prices for the rest of the offense are all very cheap with Witten the highest priced at $4,750, Williams barely cheaper at $4,700, Beasley at $4,300 and even Dunber at $3,900. This is a "Panera lunch special" where you can Pick Two to stack with Romo ($6,700) and have a great shot at all three hitting value, even in tournaments. With cash at 3x and tournament targets right about 4x for FantasyAces, even taking Witten and Williams with Romo will put you just over $16,000, so 48-65 points would be the targets here. With the half-PPR scoring, a 300-yard game with two touchdowns to the receivers of choice with about 60% of those yards going to the right two pass catchers certainly would put you very close to that mark. Last week a combination of Romo/Witten/Dunbar would have netted 16-130-2 receiving (33 points) and Romo's 356 yards and two scores would top the 25-point level, as an example of getting close to 60 points with the right trio.
John Lee: If I were stacking a receiver with Romo this week, I would probably roll with either Williams or Witten. Witten is the safer play, but I think Williams is the better upside play. Witten should see the heaviest of volume, and Williams will be the deep threat.
That said, I don't think it's necessary to run a Romo/receiver stack Sunday. The Eagles will likely try to force a lot of underneath passing by giving safety help to whomever covers Williams, the Cowboys only deep threat with Bryant out. Romo will gladly dink and dunk eight-yard passes all night with Beasley, Witten, and Dunbar, which will collectively boost his stats to an upper tier; that said, I might just play Romo by himself and look for a more predictable high-end receiver elsewhere. It would be a shame to roster Romo with 20+ fantasy points, only to miss on his best receiver and sink one's chances of winning a GPP.
Week 1 Results
Tennessee at Tampa Bay was surprising. Is the Tennessee offense better than we expected, or is the Tampa Bay defense one we should target?
Justin Howe: Both. Marcus Mariota, one of the best quarterback prospects I've ever seen, looks (at this early point) to have soaked up a healthy amount of Ken Whisenhunt's NFL offense. He looks patient and capable of methodically finding his targets. This unit won't light many more opponents on fire, but the talent upgrade at quarterback from recent years is clear, which gives the preferred weapons (Bishop Sankey, Kendall Wright) a rosier GPP outlook. And yes, Tampa Bay makes for a fine defensive target. They "boast" some of the worst cornerback play in the league, and the pass rush is nonexistent. And they aren't producing the turnovers that Lovie Smith's defensive scheme calls for.
Will Grant: I must admit that I was one of the people caught completely off guard by the disaster of a performance that the Tampa Bay defense put up last week. I haven't been impressed with the Titans on offense, and I figured Lovie Smith would be able to frustrate a rookie quarterback in his first appearance. Justin makes some good points, but I'm still not buying that Tennessee is the team you want in DFS. Despite the 28 point rout, the Titans only put up 309 yards of total offense and despite Mariota's four touchdown passes and near perfect completion rate, he barely cracked 200 yards passing - including a 52 yard touchdown pass. That being said, the Titans face Cleveland this week, and the Browns had trouble handling the Jets and their ground game last week. I'd look at Bishop Sankey for a cash game play, and maybe Mariota, but I don't see them being a good GPP candidate.
Tampa is in a world of hurt and if their defense is struggling already, this is a team that could be facing some tough times coming up. They are on the road against the Saints this week and like Justin, I think that Drew Brees and Mark Ingram are good players to target against the Bucs this week.
Chris Feery: I agree with Will. I was caught off guard by the performance of the Tampa Bay defense in Week 1. I had very similar thoughts on the Bucs ability to frustrate a rookie quarterback. Things escalated quickly on Sunday, and they never got a chance to get their feet underneath them. Heading to the Superdome this week is not a recipe for a quick turnaround, so they may have another painful week. As for Tennessee, yes they were better than expected, but let's pump the brakes a bit. I need to see more before I'm sold. While Mariota looked like a world-beater on Sunday, the fact remains that he is a rookie, and there will be the inevitable walls ahead.
John Lee: The most important thing to point out here is that we should not be too quick to jump to generalizations about teams and player expectations based on a single week's performance; the sample size is just too small to know for sure.
That said, it appears that the Bucs defense is picking up where they left off in 2014 with a bottom tier defense; Bishop Sankey averaged 3.7 yards per carry in his rookie season but nearly doubled that number (7.2) against the Bucs last week. Furthermore, Marcus Mariota threw for a touchdown every four passes -- an unsustainable rate of success. I would be very cautious rostering Titans the rest of the way, although I must admit that Bishop Sankey is interesting this weekend against the Browns' porous rush defense.
Should we avoid passing game players against Carolina after they shut down Jacksonville and ended last season playing well?
Howe: I'm starting to fade receivers against Josh Norman, that's for sure. He's a shadow corner on a remarkable run of success against top receivers. From Week 10 of last season through last Sunday, Norman has squared off with Julio Jones (twice), Mike Evans, Josh Gordon, Jeremy Maclin, and Allen Robinson. Those six meetings have produced a total line of just 20 catches for 218 yards and one score. He's erasing WR1s left and right, so I'm generally avoiding him, as any receiver theoretically good enough to overcome his coverage will be a high-priced dice roll anyway.
Grant: Houston looks like they will go with Ryan Mallett this week against the Panthers. As Justin points out though, that may not make that much of a difference. Were they not playing Carolina, I would think that DeAndre Hopkins would be a good play this week given how Mallett locked onto him. But given Justin's stats, and the fact that Hopkins is one of the higher-priced receivers, I'll probably fade him this week against the Panthers.
Feery: Great input from Justin on Josh Norman, definitely food for thought going forward. For this week, I would definitely fade Hopkins as Will pointed out. He had a great week last week, but I think he will be bottled up pretty well from here on out until Arian Foster returns. As for fading all receivers against the Panthers, I would say no. The matchups will dictate that on a week-to-week basis. Looking at the Panthers schedule, dates with several strong offenses such as the Colts and Packers lie ahead. If they were to shut them down, you could color me impressed, but I can't imagine fading either one of them at this point.
Lee: With regards to the Carolina secondary, it's tough to make any conclusions after a single game against Blake Bortles and his lackluster receiving crew. The Panthers definitely improved last year when they released Antoine Cason in November. It was the definition of the expression "addition by subtraction." If the Panthers are to win the division again this season, their defense will need to step up because of the inadequacies in that offense. This weekend, the Panthers get another easy matchup against the Texans, so we may not know the legitimacy of this secondary until the following week when they host Drew Brees and the Saints.
Is the Buffalo defense a must-avoid for cash game plays?
Grant: As for Buffalo this week, I think I'd fade the Patriots against them. The expectations for Tom Brady and the crew are sky high and with an extra few days of rest, they should be able to play well against the Bills. That being said, I think it's going to take a balanced attack to beat them and as Justin mentions, spreading the ball around a lot. Rob Gronkowski isn't going to get three touchdowns this week, no matter what his owners want, and the other New England receivers will have to step up a bit. With Blount back, the Patriots may spread the ball around just enough so that nobody is a clear "must play" this week -- especially Brady as one of the top priced quarterbacks.
Lee: Buffalo's defense looks like the real deal after stymieing the Colts' powerful offense on opening weekend. They will get another big test this weekend against the Patriots, who will have 10 full days to prepare for this game. If Buffalo manages to contain and/or shut down New England's offense, you can safely avoid most opposing offensive players thereafter...but for now, I want a bigger sample size to determine if Rex Ryan has put together a juggernaut of a defense.
Feery: For Buffalo, I would say yes until proven otherwise. This coming week is interesting and will be especially telling. The Patriots have had over a week to prepare and that's more than enough time for Belichick to cook something up to tilt the game in favor of his offense. That being said, Ryan gets himself and his teams up for games against his nemesis and we can expect another raucous crowd in Buffalo. This could be similar to the perfect storm that Andrew Luck and the Colts walked into in Week 1. I'm fading the Patriots this week and we should receive a good indicator if the Bills defense is a must-avoid or a matchup based play.
Howe: The Bills defense is a fine unit, and I generally expect little from opposing quarterbacks. But I'm not necessarily fading running backs; that's to say that I won't bench a confident RB1 consideration on their account. I even have some (mild, tepid) LeGarrette Blount enthusiasm this week, as I expect the Patriots to throttle down and scheme away from that suffocating pass defense. It's really their best option, so Blount and Lewis could split 30+ carries.
Positional Matchup Trends
Which positional matchup do you see as a developing trend that DFS players should target?
Will Grant: It's a little early to make sweeping generalizations about any team against a particular position. That being said, I'm sure everyone saw Travis Kelce's second touchdown last week. He could have fallen down and crawled into the end zone and I don't think the Texans would have gotten over to touch him. The Chiefs are comically identified as not throwing touchdown passes to their wide receivers, so it wasn't as if the Texans didn't know Kelce was going to be targeted. Yet Kelce caught all six passes he was thrown, including two touchdowns, and it really points to a potential vulnerability in Houston to the tight end position. Greg Olsen had a terrible game last week, and his salary is relatively low at $4,300 (tied for 10th this week). I don't know if I'd have him in a GPP this week, but he's an interesting cash play against the Texans.
Jeff Pasquino: I was with you up until the last sentence Will. I think Olsen is a great pick in GPPs because most people will be off of him (recency bias), and the matchup is favorable. That's the trends (plus lower pricing) you want to seek out for tournament plays. Cash tight ends for me are more like Jason Witten and Tyler Eifert.
Grant: That's a fair point, and I didn't consider how people might be fading him this week. Lower competition would make him a stronger GPP play. I'm just not sure that the Panthers will target Olsen enough for him to reach the value that you'd want in a GPP.
Pasquino: It's all good, Will. I think some people will just see the box score and not dig into the game log and see that Olsen caught a touchdown that was overruled by a questionable offensive pass interference call (a weak push-off) on Olsen. That touchdown would have saved a lot of rosters in Week 1.
Carolina also talked about getting Olsen the ball more in Week 2, which plays well into a positive narrative street for Olsen. While I'm not 100% on board, I can see good reason to at least check his ownership percentages heading into Week 2 for tournament lineup decisions.
John Lee: I will be very surprised if Detroit continues to get torched on the ground this season, simply because they were the league's best defense against the run in 2014, yielding only 69.3 rushing yards per game. I am currently considering last week's performance as an aberration that talent will correct, but will be monitoring that situation closely, for sure.
Likewise, the Cardinals have had the #8 and #3 ranked defenses in defending passes to running backs over the past two seasons. However, the difference here is that the Cardinals Defensive Coordinator, Todd Bowles, left the team this off-season to take on the Head Coach position with the Jets. His absence might explain the sudden change in defending the pass from out of the backfield. Of the three scenarios presented, it might be the most likely to continue trending deeper into the season.
Justin Howe: I've never liked the cornerback group in Indianapolis beyond Vontae Davis. Greg Toler seems to be just another guy, and Darius Butler belongs in the slot, where he's decent but not consistent. The Colts make things nice and easy on us fantasy folk, using Davis to shadow clear No. 1 wideouts all over the field, so secondary receivers will get a noticeable volume uptick from me. This week, Brandon Marshall will draw that treatment -- though Eric Decker is arguably the better player at this point -- giving Decker a nice GPP WR2 outlook. He's a touchdown machine, great down the field and in the red zone, and could be the main beneficiary of a hypothetical Jets-Colts mini-shootout.
Chris Feery: I agree with Will. It's a little early to pigeonhole any teams as downright awful against a certain position. But Week 1 did offer us several situations to keep on our radar:
- Bucs Passing Defense
- Raiders Rushing Defense
- Lions vs. Wide Receivers
- Both Steelers and Texans vs. Tight Ends
Of these four matchups this week, the Bucs could be in for another long day Sunday against the Saints. Brees quietly threw for 355 yards last week on the road and has to be chomping at the bit for kickoff in the Superdome. Justin Forsett looks like a really strong play against a Raiders defense that gave up 127 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground last week to the Bengals. Teddy Bridgewater and Charles Johnson or Mike Wallace could be an under the radar play this week. Many will shy away from Bridgewater due to his rough MNF performance. I would expect the Steelers and Texans to adjust and not leave TEs blatantly uncovered going forward. They have to, right?
Mobile Quarterback Rankings
It is said that rushing quarterbacks are a "cheat code" in fantasy football. They're often priced lower than the elite passers as well. With the two-quarterback game at FantasyAces, sneaking a mobile quarterback into the lineup can be both cost effective and yield big production. Rank the following quarterbacks for this week, factoring in their respective prices into your evaluation:
- Johnny Manziel ($5,200)
- Colin Kaepernick ($5,850)
- Tyrod Taylor ($6,100)
- Marcus Mariota ($6,100)
- Cam Newton ($6,200)
- Russell Wilson ($6,500)
- Ryan Tannehill ($6,550)
- Colin Kaepernick: We saw what Tom Brady did to the Steelers defense in prime time last week. Kaepernick isn't Brady by a long shot, but the point here is that the Steelers have some issues and Kaepernick can exploit them. He's on the road and on a short week, but his price is a little lower than the next two guys which is why I've got him ranked #1.
- Ryan Tannehill: I like this matchup. Cam Newton didn't exactly blow the doors off the Jaguars last week, but I think Tannehill is in a better place and has better weapons around him than Newton does. Tannehill should have a solid game as well. Unfortunately he's also the most expensive of the QBs listed here.
- Cam Newton: Vegas marks this game as the one with the lowest total offense this week. Houston has a tough defense and Carolina is going to need Newton to use his mobility if they are going to win. Newton should have a good game fantasy wise, and his running will be a big part of it. He's a little expensive though, so he gets knocked down a bit here.
- Russell Wilson: Wilson had a good game despite the fact that his team struggled against St. Louis. Now he goes on the road against a tough Green Bay team, and they could struggle there too. But Green Bay gave up 225 yards passing and even 31 rushing yards to Jay Cutler in Chicago last week. Wilson should have another solid game this week. That being said, he's also pretty expensive at $6,500 and will need a big game to really be of value in DFS.
- Johnny Manziel: This is a tough match-up with Tennessee, who ate up Jameis Winston last week. Manziel is going to have just as tough a time this week. Manziel is dirt cheap though, so even a little success will get him to cash.
- Tyrod Taylor: This pricing is a classic fantasy overreaction. Tyrod Taylor was a bargain last week, and he helped a lot of DFS owners cash in. This week, his salary explodes, and he faces a much tougher opponent in the division rival Patriots. This game is going to be a dogfight, and I think the Patriots are going to make it very difficult on Taylor this week. If he had Manziel's price tag, I'd be more excited. I think Taylor is going to have a tough time this week, and his price tag makes him prohibitive.
- Marcus Mariota: For all his mobility, the Titans offense isn't built on Mariota running for 30 or 40 yards a game. Even in their blowout last week, Mariaota had just six total rushing yards on two carries. Mariota had four touchdown passes though, which did make him a good play last week. But he only had 200 yards passing, and 25% of them came on one touchdown pass less than two minutes in the game. This week, he's facing another weaker defense in Cleveland. Can he have a repeat performance? He is going to need it if you are going to sink $6,100 into his position. I think Mariota could have another solid game, but I don't think he's going to do well enough to be successful in DFS with that price tag. It doesn't help that you can't really find a receiver that you would want to stack him with in your lineup either.
Jeff Pasquino: Will's list is a good start. I would probably be off of most of these guys even as a QB2 as there are some good solid options in the normal top-10 list. But I think Wilson offers some solid tournament upside. His price is the highest here at $6,200, but he can run for 100 yards or throw for 300 any particular week (and sometimes both as we saw once last season). Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett can also break free for touchdowns, so I think he has the most upside. Most of all, I can see a game script against Green Bay where he has to produce big numbers to keep up with the Packers in a shootout.
Kaepernick would be next, but I don't see much in the way of a passing game just yet for him. Pittsburgh did get burned plenty by New England in Week 1 so it is possible, but I don't know how probable it would be for Kaepernick to reach even cash game value.
I would not really bother with most of the other guys, but if you forced me, I would take Tannehill next (best receivers of the remaining guys), then Newton (best remaining rusher, goal line option), then Mariota (confidence off of Week 1), then Tyrod Taylor (New England is so much better than the Colts on defense) then lastly Manziel (no confidence in Cleveland).
Justin Howe: Wilson is a strong start most weeks, and this one is no different. He brings a consistent weekly rushing boost and looks to have added passing upside with red zone monster Jimmy Graham on board.
Kaepernick is running the ball at historic levels. He's at a point seen only by Newton since Michael Vick's heyday has seen, where we can confidently expect a 4-12 point weekly boost. And his matchup with the pathetic Steelers secondary makes him likely to maximize his 20-25 high-impact passes.
Newton's passing numbers will rebound a bit, as Greg Olsen will have much more impactful games. Newton's a top-10 play any given week, but his upside is always capped by that anemic "attack."
Tannehill won't see great volume if his date with the Jaguars goes as planned, and we haven't seen much rushing production from him lately. He's more of a high-end QB2 option this week.
We didn't see Mariota's rushing upside in Week 1, but that was likely due to a rigid rookie game script that never changed due to the blowout win. I think this week he'll trade off two or three of those passing touchdowns for some rushing yardage, but probably not enough to make him a QB1 play.
Taylor has a date with Bill Belichick, a daunting task for a second start. He's likely to struggle all-around, but this is a particularly porous Patriots defense. He's a solid bet to mix in a handful of big plays, but a risky GPP play; the salary is still a bit too high.
Manziel is worlds away from being an NFL-relevant passer (think Tim Tebow on his best day), but he brings big-play upside with his legs. A gifted open-field runner supremely unafraid to take off, he has some lines of 50+ ground yards in his future, bringing mid-QB2 upside for as long as he starts. But the floor, I'm afraid, would be devastating to a GPP lineup. I'm waiting until he shows something, anything, from his arm to hold up as potential.
- Tannehill: He's the most expensive on the list, but I like his upside this week. The Panthers did not put enough points on the board last week due to their dearth of talent at wide receiver. I don't anticipate similar problems for the Dolphins.
- Kaepernick: The Steelers defense looked awful last week. While I expect improvement from the defense and he will never be confused with Tom Brady, he should score enough to justify his price.
- Mariota: He had a stellar debut, but my enthusiasm is tempered until I see more. That said, he should be in consideration for his matchup against the Browns, though I wouldn't count on a repeat of last week
- Newton: He is too risky due to a lack of receiving talent and I can't imagine the Texans not making some adjustments on defense to thwart Greg Olsen's chances of having a Travis Kelce-like day. He could make up the difference on the ground, but I'll take my chances elsewhere.
- Wilson: The game with the Packers could be a nice source of fantasy points, but I'll pass on Wilson. There are too many quarterbacks in this price range that I would rather roll with this week.
- Taylor: The Patriots have had 10 days to prepare for an inexperienced quarterback. I'll be staying away this week.
- Manziel: Simply based on price, I like him as a GPP flier for a lineup if playing multiple entries. He's too boom or bust for cash games.
John Lee: None of the quarterbacks on this list excite me as anything other than a GPP play this week; most have challenging matchups and represent GPP plays on this particular slate, as other quarterbacks offer better value for their salaries. Here are my quick takes on each one this weekend:
- Wilson: He has the most upside of any of this crew, but Vegas is not confident that the Seahawks will move the ball effectively against the Packers at Lambeau (team total of 22 points). Wilson is the consummate dual-threat quarterback, and the gamescript sets up nicely for him, but the Vegas total has me somewhat apprehensive about his fantasy potential.
- Tannehill: His team is slated to score 24 points, the most of any QB on the list, but it is likely that the Dolphins try to return to the ground after getting away from the rushing game last week. The Dolphins are six-point favorites, which tends to bode well for those involved in the rushing game over those in the passing game. At Tannehill's price, I think he is too risky to start in any format this week.
- Newton: On paper, Newton has a great matchup against a Texans team that was crushed last week by the Chiefs; in that game, Kansas City was the beneficiary of some boneheaded moves by the Texans, who gave the Chiefs short-field situation on multiple occasions. Houston's defense is better than it showed last week. I expect to see them play much improved against this low-powered Carolina offense.
- Kaepernick: I cannot buy into the 49ers Hyde -- er -- hype just yet. After crushing the Vikings on Monday night, the Niners will head back to the east coast for an early start against a very bad Steelers defense, all of which makes Colin Kaeparnick sound like an intriguing play. The linesmakers in Vegas disagree and have installed the Steelers as 5.5-point favorites and project the Niners to score fewer than 20 points, which severely limits any enthusiasm I might have about him this Sunday.
- Taylor: He made me a lot of money last week against the Colts, but his salary is now prohibitive just a week later. Bill Belichick has made a career out of beating teams by taking away their best weapon, and Taylor is that weapon. I think Buffalo wins this matchup, but I expect Taylor to have a bit of a dropoff in his fantasy production.
- Manziel: Since he was drafted, I've been adamant that Manziel is not an NFL quarterback. To this point, he has proven me correct, but the Browns are apparently not yet convinced. So we will see Manziel line up across from the Titans this weekend, whose secondary is terrible but could not be exploited by a better quarterback and better receivers last Sunday. There's no reason to think Manziel will do any better.
- Mariota: He threw four touchdowns on 16 passes last week against a bad Tampa Bay secondary. This week, he will see Joe Haden covering one of his primary receivers, and I expect a major regression. His salary is a deal-breaker on FantasyAces. I'll have very few, if any, shares of him.
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