The Fade is back for Week 13 to take a look at the week’s top fade candidates at each position. Before walking through this week’s selections, let’s take a look at some of the factors that will heavily impact ownership percentages, starting with some potential high-scoring affairs.
This Week’s Projected High-Scoring Games
- New York Jets @ New York Giants. Jets -2, 45. Both New York teams are squarely in the mix for playoff spots in their respective conferences.
- Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay -1, 46. Atlanta has lost four straight while the Bucs remain surprisingly alive in the Wild Card hunt.
- Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints. Carolina -7, 49 ½. The NFL’s lone remaining unbeaten team travels to New Orleans for a potential trap game.
- Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots. New England – 9 ½, 49. The Eagles get the pleasure of facing a Patriots team coming in off of their first loss of the season.
- Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh -7, 48. We could be looking at a bit of a shootout in Pittsburgh between two 6-5 teams.
All of the above games shape up to be solid potential sources of fantasy goodness. In terms of popularity, we can expect the top receivers from the battle of New York and the matchup between the Falcons and Buccaneers to have their fair share of supporters, as well as the Patriots passing game and the offenses of the Panthers and Steelers.
Popular Matchups To Exploit
- Browns vs. QBs. Over the past four games, the Browns have given up 12 passing touchdowns and allowed an average of 310.5 passing yards per game.
- Dolphins vs. RBs. For the season, opponents are averaging 110.3 rushing yards per game against the Dolphins.
- Eagles vs. WRs. Opposing wide receivers have had their way with the Eagles of late, including Calvin Johnson on Thanksgiving.
- Saints vs. TEs. The Saints have allowed six touchdowns to tight ends over the past three games.
- Browns vs. DEF. The Browns have allowed opposing defenses to score in the double-digits for two consecutive games and five times in total this season.
The Eagles secondary has been a popular target for DFS purposes of late and should be even more popular this week. They were exposed for the world to see on Thanksgiving Day and will be facing an angry Patriots team that specializes in exploiting opponents’ weaknesses. The Saints happen to be facing one of the top tight ends in the league in the form of Greg Olsen, who should have a healthy amount of supporters this week. Finally, the Bengals look to be a fantastic play both through the passing game and on the defensive side of the ball as they face off with the Browns on Sunday.
Last Week’s Heroes
- SEA QB Russell Wilson. The Seattle signal caller exploded for five touchdowns in last week’s entertaining win over the Steelers.
- MIN RB Adrian Peterson. It was just another day at the office for Peterson, who compiled 187 combined yards and found the end zone twice.
- SEA WR Doug Baldwin. Baldwin was the biggest beneficiary of Wilson’s big day as he hauled in six passes for 145 yard and three touchdowns.
- SD TE Antonio Gates. Gates found the end zone twice last week against the Jaguars while catching four balls for 53 yards.
- Carolina Panthers DEF. The Panthers took the Cowboys to the woodshed on Thanksgiving Day and the defense walked away with a 21.0-point performance.
Three of our heroes face of this week when the Seahawks travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. Expectations should be tempered for all three in what should be a tough game, but we can still expect a fair share of supporters hoping for a repeat. Gates will face off with a Broncos team that has allowed a few big games to opposing tight ends but remains stout defensively, while the Panthers defense looks pretty intriguing against a struggling Saints team.
On to this week’s fade candidates, we can expect the below players to be among the most popular at their respective positions for Week 13. You don’t have to fade them all, but if your roster happens to include all of the below players, you may want to pick a few to pivot off of and search for a little uniqueness for your lineup.
Ben Roethlisberger, $6,600
Roethlisberger threw for 456 yards, one touchdown and two picks in last week’s entertaining shootout against the Seahawks, which was viewed by much of the country as one of only two matchups in the 4pm timeframe. (Just an aside, but why does the NFL only schedule two 4pm games for some weeks? Can we make three games the minimum?) He’ll face off with a Colts team that has allowed multiple passing touchdowns in seven of eleven games and in three of their last four. Roethlisberger is very reasonably priced in relation to his potential upside and will find plenty of support for one of the week’s potential highest-scoring games.
Andy Dalton, $6,400
Dalton threw for three touchdowns last week against the Rams and gets the privilege of facing off with a Browns team that has struggled against the passing game of late. Add in a very reasonable price of $6,400 and we’re looking at a pretty popular quarterback selection for Week 13. The Bengals faced off with the Browns back in Week 9 and Dalton found success by throwing for 234 yards and three touchdowns, which was good enough for 21.86 points – solid production, but an output we could live with if we choose to fade Dalton this week.
DeAngelo Williams, $5,600
Williams remains affordably priced and will be a popular target along with the rest of the Steelers offense for a potentially high-scoring game against the Colts, who have actually held opposing running backs in check over the course of their three-game winning streak. Against the Seahawks last week, Williams contributed 117 combined yards and a touchdown, good enough for 24.7 points. Similar production this week would provide a solid return of 4.4x value – certainly nothing to sneeze at, but you’ll need to look elsewhere to capture a little differentiation for your lineups.
David Johnson, $3,400
The Cardinals backfield belongs to Johnson for this week and he is expected to receive a heavy workload against a struggling Rams team. Quite simply, Johnson is one of the top value plays of the week at a bargain basement salary of $3,400 and we can expect his ownership percentage to be astronomical. Johnson is one of those unique situations that we discuss from time to time that is truly tough to pass on: a heavy workload at a steal of a price. But if we’re looking for some uniqueness and Johnson by chance goes out and lays an egg, we’ll have a tremendous leg up on a great portion of the field.
Danny Amendola, $4,700
We’ll have to monitor the news on Amendola as he is currently listed as questionable, but signs point to him giving it a go on Sunday. Assuming he’s a full go, Amendola is one of the top value plays of the week and will have plenty of DFSers in his camp. Over his last two games, Amendola has been targeted 23 times and hauled in 19 of them, pointing to a fruitful day against a suspect Eagles passing defense. The Patriots passing game has been besieged by injuries of late and Amendola will continue to be heavily-targeted – both by Tom Brady and DFSers.
AJ Green, $7,600
Green found the end zone twice last week while hauling in six passes for 61 yards, good for a cool 24.1 points. He should be a popular stack target along with quarterback Andy Dalton as they face off against a porous Browns secondary. Green could also see a spike in targets for Week 13 as teammate Tyler Eifert is currently listed as doubtful. He looks like a solid play for this week, but we can find similar production a little south on the salary chart that may also not be as highly-owned.
Greg Olsen, $6,400
We can expect Olsen to be heavily-owned this week as the Panthers face off with a Saints team that has had their share of struggles against the tight end position. Olsen is the top receiving threat for a Panthers offense that is favored by seven points in a game with the highest-projected total of the week at 49 ½ points. If the projections come to fruition, Olsen should have a big hand in helping to run up the score. He also checks in as the most expensive tight end this week as Rob Gronkowski is set to spend the week on the sidelines with a knee injury. We’ll look to save a little salary at tight end and gain some uniqueness in the process.
Scott Chandler, $2,500
Speaking of Gronkowski, Scot Chandler jumps into the starting tight end role for the Patriots in Week 13 and is regarded as one of the top ‘sleeper’ picks of Week 13. As Chandler’s ownership percentage on Sunday will indicate, it’s pretty hard to be a sleeper pick on an offense as prolific as the Patriots. Chandler should receive a solid amount of targets and have little trouble achieving value. In short, he makes for a great low-cost option, but if you’re looking for some uniqueness – you’ll have to keep digging.
Cincinnati Bengals, $3,400
We return to Cincinnati once again for a fade candidate, this time on the defensive side of the ball. The Browns have allowed double-digit points to opposing defenses in back-to-back games and five times in total this season. They will also have a new starter at the helm as Austin Davis has been given the nod to replace the injured Josh McCown. Solid defense against a poor offense with a new starter? You can sign me up all day, as well as plenty of other DFSers. The Bengals defense makes for a fine choice in Week 13, but their ownership percentage may outweigh the benefits of their potential output.
Chicago Bears, $2,600
The Bears defense has played pretty well of late and has not allowed more than 17 points per game over the last five. They welcome an offensively-challenged 49ers team to town that has allowed several big games to opposing defenses in 2015 – but none over the past three weeks. The 49ers have been a popular target for DFSers over the past two weeks as they faced off against the Seahawks and Cardinals, but allowed only 6 and 10 points respectively. The matchup may pay out some better dividends this week, but you may be better served by digging for the week’s hidden gem at defense.
That takes care of The Fade for Week 13 and our walkthrough of players you may want to consider taking a pass on. Some of them will be tough to look past while others are actually not that painful to pass on once you dig a little deeper. Thankfully, we don’t have to fade all of them – just the right ones. Best of luck this weekend!