Another Saturday, another huge set of games on the docket for DraftKings. While this Saturday is a little more manageable with only two main slates as opposed to last week’s three, there’s still a ton of games to dig into. Let’s try to narrow things down a bit and find some matchups and players to keep in mind while building our rosters, starting with the early games.
Saturday Early Slate
The action for the early slate starts at 12pm and includes 15 games. One of the cool things about DraftKings is the range of tournaments to fit any budget. For example, the early slate this week features the $110K Tailgate with a $27 entry fee and the $100K Redshirt for a $3 entry, both paying out $10,000 to 1st place. It’s a great time to be a DFS player with the chance to win $10,000 from an afternoon of College Football.
To start narrowing down the games on the slate, we’ll look to the over/under totals for all 15 games. Of those games, we find six that have an expected total of at least 60 points. Three of those six look to be blowouts as there are huge favorites on one side of the ledger. We’ll keep these teams in mind, but don’t want to break the bank rostering players from these games as there’s a risk that the starters will spend the second half on the bench. A fourth game, Illinois at North Carolina, could offer some potential as North Carolina is an 8 ½ - point favorite with a projected total of 63. But two of the games really jump out as potentially great sources of fantasy goodness:
- Memphis @ Bowling Green. O/U 78 ½ with Memphis favored by 3 points.
- Western Kentucky @ Indiana. O/U 71 ½ with Indiana a 2-point favorite.
That’s a ton of projected points. We’ll definitely want some exposure to what looks to be two shootouts. Another benefit is we’re not talking about huge programs here. Newer players to CFB DFS will gravitate towards the big name schools and leave a ton of projected points on the table in the process. We’re not going to be like those guys, we’re going to do our homework and reap the rewards. Just from these two games, we have a bunch of options to try to squeeze into our lineups. Two names stand out at the top of the charts, one from each game:
- BowlingGreen QB Matt Johnson $8,700. Johnson comes in off a game in which he threw for six touchdowns and 491 yards, good for 45.14 points on DraftKings. Opponent Memphis just dropped 55 points on Kansas. Prepare for fireworks. Six quarterbacks on the early slate are more expensive than Johnson, who comes in on top of our quarterback projections.
- Indiana RB Jordan Howard $9,100. Howard has run for 304 yards and three touchdowns through two games this season. Western Kentucky is coming off of a game in which they allowed Louisiana Tech RB Kenneth Dixon to run all over them to the tune of 168 yards and two touchdowns. Howard is pricey and you’ll need to find some value to squeeze him in, but he should have little trouble providing a healthy return on his price.
If you’re looking to save a little salary, consider Bowling Green RB Travis Greene at $5,700. Greene should be one of the better value plays from the early slate of games. Other picks to keep in mind for the early set of games include:
- Temple QB P.J. Walker $6,300. Walker is an under the radar choice for his game against Massachusetts. He has yet to have a huge game this year but has the ability and dual-threat upside. Our projections like him this week and he looks to be one of the better quarterback values for the early slate.
- Texas A&M QB Kyle Allen $7,400. Allen and A&M will put up points. They are favored by 34 points at home versus Nevada in a game with an O/U of 65. A little risky as the Aggies could call the dogs off at halftime, but Allen and his loaded group of wide receivers are capable of doing plenty of damage in only a half.
- Northwestern RB Justin Jackson $6,800. Jackson is a workhorse back at a reasonable price. He has carried the ball 20+ times in each of the first two games and that shows no signs of changing. Northwestern faces a Duke team that has yet to be tested this year but should be slowed down with a step up in competition. We also have a line of Duke -3 ½ with an O/U of 48 points pointing to a close, grind it out type of game – a perfect situation for a workhorse back.
- Illinois RB Josh Ferguson $6,300. Ferguson flies under the radar a lot for DFS but continues to produce. He has scored 20+ points on DraftKings for two consecutive weeks and we have an O/U of 63 for the game against North Carolina. Nice chance to make it three weeks in a row.
- Michigan WR Amara Darboh $5,300. Darboh looks to be one of the top targets for Michigan. He had a solid game of 8/101/1 in Week 1 followed by a disappointing 4/50/0 in Week 2. Good opportunity to bounce back against UNLV, a game in which Michigan is favored by 34 points.
- Massachusetts WR Tajae Sharpe $6,600. Slightly under the radar for the masses but a favorite of experienced CFB DFSers, Sharpe scored 27.8 points on DraftKings last week. Our projections call for a bit less this week but he’s still a solid choice with a good chance to provide a return of 3x his salary.
Saturday Late Slate
The late slate kicks off at 6pm and includes 14 games. Tournament highlights include the $60K Tailgate - $27 entry, $10,000 to 1st – and the $50K Redshirt- $3 buy-in, $4,000 to 1st place. Four of the fourteen games feature O/U’s of at least 60 points. None of them offer close spreads, so we’ll go with the two lowest of the bunch to start things off:
- Texas Tech @ Arkansas. O/U 70 ½ with Arkansas favored by 11 ½ points.
- BYU @ UCLA. O/U 60 with UCLA a 16 ½ - point favorite.
A couple of different directions we can go here, but two players stand out as particularly appealing choices:
- Arkansas TE Hunter Henry $4,900. Henry is a tight end but listed as a wide receiver for DraftKings purposes. And as opposed to other college tight ends, he has the ability to produce like one. Just last week, he hauled in eight passes for 117 yards. Keon Hatcher, the Razorbacks top wideout, is out for at least six weeks due to injury. Henry should be the top option in the passing game for a game with an O/U of 70 ½.
- UCLA RB Paul Perkins $8,800. Perkins will not come cheap, but our projections like him to return 3x his salary. He ran for 151 yards and two touchdowns last week and faces a BYU team that has given up four rushing touchdowns this year. UCLA is a 16 ½ -point favorite, pointing to a reliance on the ground game once the lead is established.
Two picks that should provide both points and safety, should be a solid base to build upon. Additional players to keep on your radar for the late slate include:
- Colorado QB Sefo Liufau $6,300. Great price for a quarterback with nice upside potential. Saturday’s game against Colorado State projects to be close and has an O/U of 57. Last year’s meeting between the two teams saw Liufau throw for 241 yards and two touchdowns while chipping in another 47 yards on the ground.
- Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly $7,300. Kelly has been off to an explosive start including last week’s five total touchdown performance. A big step up in competition against Alabama this week will cause many to stay away, but he should remain firmly on your radar. Last year’s 23-17 victory for Ole Miss was led by quarterback Bo Wallace throwing for 251 yards and three touchdowns. Take advantage of the low ownership percentage, the Ole Miss offense looks to be for real.
- Toledo RB Kareem Hunt $6,800. Hunt returns from a two-game suspension to start the season so there is some risk involved, but indications are that he will return to a normal workload. He piled up 1,631 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2014.
- Cal RB Daniel Lasco $6,300. Lasco is questionable for Saturday’s game so be sure to monitor the news, but this is a great price for a key cog in the Cal offense. Lasco posted 22.3 points on DraftKings last week and has the potential to do the same this week.
- Penn State WR DaeSean Hamilton $4,600. Hamilton projects to be one of the better values at wide receiver for the late slate. Opponent Rutgers was just lit up for 478 yards and four touchdowns through the air. Granted that was against a pass-heavy Washington State, but it still puts out some positive vibes for the Penn State passing attack. You’ll need to save salary somewhere for Saturday Night’s games, Hamilton provides you with some great upside at a bargain price.
- USC WR JuJu Smith-Schuster $7,100. Smith-Schuster was electric last week, catching 10 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. A stack with quarterback Cody Kessler is intriguing, but there is some risk as last year’s USC-Stanford game was a low scoring affair. Our projections call for Smith-Schuster to have a solid shot at returning 3x value.
That’s a wrap for this week’s Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays, be sure to take advantage of all of the awesome CFB tools right here on Footballguys while you build your rosters for Saturday’s games. Best of luck this weekend!