It’s hard to believe that it’s Week 6 of the College Football season already and that we are headed towards the second Saturday in October. We have had five weeks of jam-packed action, both on the field and in DFS. This Saturday is no different and we have two huge slates of games on DraftKings to dig into. There’s a lot of ground to cover – 30 games in total – so let’s get right to it, starting with the early slate.
Early Slate
Saturday’s early set of games kicks off at 12pm and includes 17 games. Tournament highlights include the $140K Redshirt ($3 entry, $10,000 to 1st) and the $125K Tailgate ($27 entry, $12,000 to 1st). We have an interesting set of games to say the least, ranging from what look to be low-scoring defensive struggles to some projected shootouts. Totals for the early slate range from a low of 35 points all the way up to 78 ½ points.
As we explained last week, to attack a large slate like this we’ll want to break the games down into tiers to make them more manageable. This week brings us six games at 50 points or less and five games at 60 points or greater with the remainder falling in the middle. Our biggest focus will be on the games with a projected total of at least 60 points. Of those five games, three of them have astronomical totals that are greater than 70 points. We’ll start with those three games to find some building blocks for our lineups:
- Baylor @ Kansas. Baylor -45, 78 ½.
- Massachusetts @ Bowling Green. Bowling Green -13 ½, 79.
- Iowa State @ Texas Tech. Texas Tech -10, 73 ½.
There are plenty of choices for these three games, ranging all the way from value plays to high-end selections. Here are three that really stand out, one for each position:
- Baylor QB Seth Russell, $9,300. The blowout risk is very high for this game but Russell should do enough damage to justify his salary. He is averaging an amazing 40.6 points per game and our projections call for him to be one of the higher-scoring quarterbacks of the early slate.
- Massachusetts WR Tajae Sharpe, $7,200. This one’s pretty simple. Massachusetts is expected to be coming from behind. Sharpe receives a ton of targets and produces. Put him in your lineup and worry about the other eight spots on your roster.
- Iowa State RB Mike Warren, $6,000. Warren had a coming-out party last week as he ran for 175 yards and two touchdowns. His salary has jumped but remains very reasonable. For one of the higher-scoring games of the early slate we can roster a back with a reasonable cost and high upside.
A solid base behind us, we can focus on the rest of our lineup. Here are some more players for each position to keep on your radar:
- Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield, $8,000. Mayfield slowed down a little in Week 5 but is still rolling with an average of 37.8 points per game this year. He receives the privilege of facing a struggling Texas team that has allowed 16 passing touchdowns so far. There are problems deep in the heart of Texas, Mayfield will only add to them.
- Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner, $5,000. There’s some risk here as Leidner has not lived up to expectations this year, but he deserves consideration at a low price. The pressure is on Leidner to produce as well as he played poorly last week and saw time on the bench. Although he hasn’t shown it this year he has dual-threat ability that can add up the fantasy points quickly. Leidner makes for an interesting boom-bust player in GPPs on Saturday.
- Arizona RB Nick Wilson, $6,400. Wilson’s numbers have gone down for the past few weeks and his salary has followed. This is an outstanding price for a player with exceptional ability. The game against Oregon State has an O/U of 62 and our projections call for Wilson to be one of the higher scoring running backs of the early slate. Grab him at a discount.
- Western Kentucky RB D’Andre Ferby, $5,700. Ferby faces off with a Middle Tennessee team that is allowing 220 yards per game on the ground. The game just missed our cutoff to be featured as one of the higher-scoring games of the early slate with an O/U of 69. Ferby is a great way to gain some exposure to this matchup at a reasonable price.
- Notre Dame WR William Fuller, $6,500. Fuller’s production has dipped over the past few weeks but we like him to bounce back against Navy. The line for this game shows Notre Dame as a 14-point favorite with an O/U of 56. Look for Fuller to have a hand in building the lead and for his production to rise back up.
- Oregon State Wide Receiver Jordan Villamin, $4,100. We can always use some ways to save some salary and Villamin looks like one of the top bargains for the early slate. Villamin is averaging 16.5 points per game and our projections call for him to be north of that this week. Add in an O/U of 62 for the game against Arizona and we have a player that should be firmly on your radar for the early games.
Late Slate
The late slate kicks off at 7pm with 13 games on tap for the evening. As always, we have a great selection of tournaments to fit any budget. At the lower price point we find the $70K Redshirt, a tournament with a $3 buy-in that pays $5,000 to 1st place. Looking to spend a little more? Check out the $60K Tailgate. This tournament has a $27 entry fee and pays out $10,000 to 1st place.
This set of games is a little more bunched up for projected totals as games range from a low of 39 ½ points to a high of 63 points. Only three games match our 60 point total criteria, we’ll start there to find some core plays for the night games:
- Oklahoma State @ West Virginia. West Virginia -6 ½, 60.
- TCU @ Kansas State. TCU -10, 63.
- Cal @ Utah. Utah -7 ½, 61 ½.
Similar to the early games, we can find a mix of value and high-end plays from the projected high-scoring games. Here’s one pick from each to keep in mind:
- West Virginia QB Skyler Howard, $6,300. Howard gets the nod for a high-scoring game and lets us save some salary to boot. He struggled last week by throwing three picks versus only one touchdown but looks like a strong bounce back candidate against Oklahoma State.
- TCU Wide Receiver Josh Doctson, $7,600. Doctson is the gift that keeps on giving for DFS and his salary remains manageable. For the last three weeks his lowest output has been 34.9 points. In a game with the highest O/U of the late slate, we like Doctson to provide a nice return on his salary.
- Utah RB Devontae Booker, $9,000. Booker’s salary will make him a little tough to fit but there are plenty of value plays on the late slate to help you make it work. Our projections call for him to be the top scoring running back on the late slate for what should be an entertaining game versus Cal.
Some more players from the late slate to have on your radar:
- Michigan State QB Connor Cook, $6,400. Cook’s numbers have taken a hit over the past two weeks but a matchup with Rutgers could be just what the Dr. ordered. The Scarlet Knights are allowing 274.0 yards per game through the air and while Michigan State has shown a preference towards the run we still like Cook to take some shots downfield. Our projections like him too and have him ranked as one of the higher-scoring quarterbacks of the late slate.
- BYU QB Tanner Mangum, $6,500. Mangum has taken control of the starting job and put up some nice numbers in Week 5 after posting a dud against Michigan in Week 4. He threw for 365 yards, two touchdowns and two picks en route to 22.7 Points. An O/U of 57 and a BYU team that is favored by 8 1/2 points leads us to Mangum’s corner for some solid production at a reasonable price.
- Boise State RB Jeremy McNichols, $7,600. McNichols has been a touchdown machine with 12 already this season. The game with Colorado State has one of the higher totals of the evening at 59 ½ and with Boise State a 15 ½-point favorite, we can expect McNichols to receive plenty of work. If you’re looking to save a little money and still roster a high-level back, McNichols should be on your short list.
- BYU RB Algernon Brown, $4,700. Brown carried the ball 18 times last week in his first game back from injury. BYU welcomes an East Carolina team to town that is allowing 192.0 yards per game on the ground and has surrendered 11 rushing touchdowns. Brown looks like one of the better values of the night games.
- Utah State WR Hunter Sharp, $5,600. Sharp checks in on our projections as the top scoring wideout for the late slate. Utah State is an 11 ½-point favorite over Fresno State and Sharp should have a big hand in building the lead. Add in a very reasonable price and we have one of our favorite plays of the night.
- Michigan State WR Aaron Burbridge, $5,500. As we mentioned on Connor Cook, Michigan State has been leaning towards the run and we don’t expect that to stop. But we do expect them to take some shots against Rutgers, making Burbridge an excellent value play. Despite two down weeks in a row, Burbridge’s average points per game still stands at 19.9. This is a good indicator that if the ball finds its way into his hands he will produce. Burbridge is another solid value play for the late games.
That takes care of Saturday Sleepers and GPP Plays for Week 6. We have thirty games staring us in the face and a lobby full of games just waiting for our lineups. Be sure to get your lineups in on time and to secure your spots in the big tourneys you have your eyes on – they will fill up and you don’t want to be left on the sidelines. Best of luck this weekend!
