Cracking FanDuel: Week 7

A look into the finer points of Week 7 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 7 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 7 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Lots of chalk this week

I can't name any RBs I like other than Todd Gurley and Devonta Freeman. That might end up being a trap, but I will roll with these in 100% of my cash lineups this week. I also think St. Louis sets up as the chalk defense and don't see a reason to fade them in any format.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • At $5,800 and facing the Raiders, Antonio Gates was setting up to be a chalk play except he never practiced all week. His game is later Sunday and we are likely not going to have word about his status until game-time. I am fading him in all my lineups and think if he scratches that Ladarious Green would get enough of a bump that he should be considered in all formats.
     
  • Another injury that does not look like it will be settled concerns both hamstrings of WR John Brown. He plays Monday night and promises to be out there, but with a plus matchup against the Ravens, will Arizona shut him down or limit his snaps? I favor playing Larry Fitzgerald and/or Michael Floyd against this unit. And with or without John Brown, Carson Palmer is still my favorite cash-game QB this week. In the last five weeks, only Michael Vick has struggled against the Ravens. Kaepernick (22.6 FP), McCown (35.5 FP), Dalton (31.3 FP), Carr (27.3) all have achieved 3X value against this hapless unit. Carson Palmer has been red-hot to start the season and I don't see a scenario where that doesn't continue at home on MNF.
     
  • I am fading everyone on the Patriots. I know they are playing great, but the Jets defense is the best they will face this year. Revis looks as if he will lock onto Julian Edelman. The Jets WRs could be sneaky plays if the Patriots can continue their high-scoring ways. Both Marshall and Decker are considerations, but this game night be best avoided. I have the feeling this could be a kicker-fest only.
     
  • Vegas pegs the high-scoring game of the week to be the Saints / Colts. Neither QB is 100%, but both defenses are really bad in both phases of the game. Over the last 4 weeks, the Colts are giving up 335 yards in the air, 107 on the ground and 2.8 TDs per game. The Saints aren't any better yielding 297 yards in the air, 143 on the ground and 3.0 TDs per game. Your winning GPP likely features some players from this game. I like WR Willie Snead ($6,500), RB Frank Gore ($7,100), WR TY Hilton ($7,700), and WR Donte Moncrief ($6,500) the best to achieve value. This might also be the game that QB Andrew Luck ($8,900) returns value.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 136.8

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 139.1