Cracking FanDuel: Week 6

A look into the finer points of Week 6 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 6 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 6 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Lots of injuries

The violent game that we all love is starting to exert itself on the Friday injury report. It seems like half the league is banged up and it makes setting DFS rosters challenging. Here are the situations that I am monitoring closely:

  • If Andrew Luck scratches, QB Matt Hasselbeck is a sure start for me. The same holds true for RB Dion Lewis. If he were to scratch, I would want RB LeGarrette Blount in the majority of my rosters. Unfortunately this is a late game and I doubt we get this kind of clarity. Both appear to be leaning towards playing and their injuries could be overstated (especially in the case of Dion Lewis)
     
  • Does Chicago have a healthy pass catcher on their roster? This situation requires monitoring, because Detroit hasn't been very good at keeping WR/TEs out of the endzone. Pass catchers have scored 9 times against this unit to date. With so many players as game time decisions, this is the case of looking at who is still standing if a bunch of them scratch. RB Forte and WR Marques Wilson both could get big bumps with multiple scratches. We will get full clarity before roster lock as CHI/DET is in the early slate.
     
  • I am watching the TJ Yeldon story closely in the morning (not because I like any of the backups), but I think without Yeldon we should see an uptick in passing attempts and targets. If Yeldon scratches, you have to consider QB Blake Bortles ($7,300), WR Allen Robinson ($6,700), and WR Allen Hurns ($6,500)in your cash and GPP rosters. They are already solid plays. If Yeldon scratches (and that's looking more and more likely), they become excellent plays).

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Anyone think the Patriots don't want to dismantle the Colts here on National TV? Deflategate was front and center based on the playoff game last year between these two teams. This has the highest under/over at 54 1/2 and the Patriots are favored by 10. Someone might eventually stop the Patriots high flying offense, but it won't be the Colts defense this week. I suspect the Patriots "Scorch the Earth" World Tour gains momentum after this one. Pissed off Tom Brady seems like the easiest of the plays this week. I can't really imagine a scenario where he doesn't get his. That puts TE Rob Gronkowski ($8,200), WR Julian Edelman ($7,900) front and center. I also love a "healthy" Dion Lewis ($7,200), but check his status in the morning. I suspect his injury is a bit of a smoke-screen, but perhaps there is something more. If Luck goes as expected, he is likely going top be playing from behind in this one. His price is a bit prohibitive (as well as the chance of aggravating his injury), but you can get some of his WRs at a good price. WR Donte Moncrief ($6,200) seems especially enticing if this becomes the shootout most expect.
     
  • Antonio Gates showed no signs of rust last week. And because that game was on Monday (after this week's prices were set), he stays at a bargain price of $5,500. In cash games, I am having a hard time seeing why you wouldn't play either Gates or Gronkowski.
     
  • The Packers / Chargers game has an under/over of 50 1/2 with Green Bay favored by 10 1/2 at home. San Diego has allowed 28, 24, 31, 27, and 24 points to their opponents so far this season. Rostering anyone on Green Bay seems very safe this week. QB Aaron Rodgers ($9,300), WR Randall Cobb ($8,100), WR James Jones ($6,600), RB Eddie Lacy ($7,300), and PK Mason Crosby ($4,900) should all have good games. From this list, I like Crosby and Cobb the best.
     
  • The Kansas City Chiefs on the road are AWFUL. And although I think there are better options that starting Teddy Bridgewater in cash games, you need to give serious consideration to WR Mike Wallace ($5,400) who appears to be in line for a lot of targets this week. This punt opens up your roster for solid plays everywhere else.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 127.9

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 127.0