Cracking FanDuel: Week 20

A look into the finer points of Week 20 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 20 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 20 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Speaking honestly, I don't think the edge is great enough to play this week. There are just 4 teams. The pricing is pretty efficient. The chalk plays are going to be highly owned with so little options. If you don't hit the top QB, you likely will lose in cash games.
     
  • Of all the teams, the one that I just don't see winning their game is the Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning was not very accurate last week and I suspect that trend will continue for the limited time he has left in the NFL. He also tends to come up small against the Patriots. I am avoiding all Denver players. I do think the Broncos will try to run the ball and make this more about defense and field position. I suppose that could put the DEN RBs in play, but I am not a buyer (except in GPPs).
     
  • The game that I expect to be more fast-paced is the CAR/ARI game. If I were entering contests this week, I would look to maximize my roster spots with options from this game. Note: FanDuel allows you a maximum of 4 players from any team. Our IVC recommends 5 CAR players, but you must exclude one.
     
  • Manning seems most likely to make a major mistake and the score should be low enough that NE defense jumps off the board to me as a MUST-PLAY.
     
  • Although I could make a case for three of the four QBs this week to score the most fantasy points, I think the smart money is on Cam Newton who is a dual-threat to run and pass for TDs. He has the highest ceiling of all players as well.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 113.0