Cracking FanDuel: Week 18

A look into the finer points of Week 18 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games. It also does not include Saturday's Redskins/Eagles game.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 18 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 18 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

    • For me, cheap RBs are the story for the week. Both Alfred Morris and Fitzgerald Toussaint are so incorrectly priced, that I highly recommend both in your lineups. Toussaint is not all that talented, but Pittsburgh is not a team that likes to juggle backs in and out of the game. They tend to run enough no-huddle that they will stay with their one option for most of the action. Fitzgerald got this carries this week in practice. I expect him to get 15+ touches. Alfred Morris gets a boost because of the scratch to Matt Jones. He won't be very involved in the passing game, but should get enough touches that at $5,500, he is a decent bet to return value even without scoring a TD. Another RB option that also makes sense is Christine Michael (who gains the start after an odd late scratch from Marshawn Lynch). The weather (freezing temperature) will be miserable in Minnesota and that could translate to a game script that involves a lot of running.
       
    • The players that I believe have massive upside in this week's contests are in the PIT/CIN game. I expect a high-scoring affair with plenty of passing yards. Because of this, I recommend both Antonio Brown and AJ Green in your lineups. Both could have monster games. I prefer fading Ben Roethlisberger (only because you can get Aaron Rodgers so cheaply). I have a strong sense Rodgers turns around and ugly season and carries the Packers to a nice road win. His running ability could be the added difference in your DFS contests.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 113.2