Cracking FanDuel: Week 16

A look into the finer points of Week 16 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games. It also does not include Saturday's Redskins/Eagles game.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 16 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 16 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Beware of the Week 16 DFS trap. I can't say it any clearer than that. So many of the teams are not playing for anything at all. Teams that have been dominating like Carolina and Arizona could decide to rest starters based on the game flow. Coaches put less preference on playoff seed than fans do. Most teams just look to qualify for the playoffs so only teams on the bubble are really fully motivated this week. This week's games also occur just days after Christmas. Just as all of us are super busy during this week, you can expect the same time juggling from the players. Players can be rusty, ill-prepared, etc. It's nearly a given they have practiced less than normally. Additionally some younger players may be given a chance where this is the most important game of the year for them. As much as I would like to say I have analyzed all of these situations and my projections are ready to dominate DFS contests, I am going to tell you that this is the hardest week to get right. Last year I took the week off in DFS contests and watched nearly every staffer have a horrible week. I probably will play this week, but will look to diversify more than normal as well as playing at about 25% of my normal weekly spend. You have been warned. Expect some CRAZY stuff this week.
     
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs and New York Jets are all competing for two playoff spots. The Steelers (10 point favorites) and Chiefs (11 point favorites) have matchups where they should be able to score a lot of points. I expect both teams to run uptempo with the hopes of getting in extra plays to ensure they get their needed victories. The Jets play the Patriots at home and are a small under-dog. Game flow will likely decide their game. If they were to fall behind early though, I think this could be the high scoring game of the week.
     
  • Vegas has pegged the New Orleans / Jacksonville game as the high scoring game of the week at 51.5 points. But with two teams out of the playoffs and Brees less than 100%, I think this is one of those traps you might be better avoiding. I do like Willie Snead at $6,000 though (especially if Brees plays)
     
  • WR Alshon Jeffery's scratch leaves little options for the CHI passing game. TE Zach Miller could see a massive number of targets.
     
  • WR Dez Bryant's scratch could open the door for WR Terrence Williams ($4,800) or WR Cole Beasley ($4,900) to reach value at their discounted prices.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 135.4

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 132.8