Cracking FanDuel: Week 14

A look into the finer points of Week 14 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 14 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 14 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • FanDuel's pricing is the toughest I have seen all year. Generally there are a few guys that are locks at value. This week those value plays all come with a decent amount of risk.
     
  • I am going back to the well and looking for value against the awful Saints defense. A strong case can be made for Jameis Winston and I am not going to use much energy to dissuade someone from that choice. Cam Newton threw 5 TDs and hit for 37.14 FanDuel points last week. Five of the last six QBs that have played New Orleans have put up 25+ FanDuel points. At $7,800, Winston seems like a lock to have a great game now with Vincent Jackson and Austin-Sefarian Jenkins healthy. And that game script could certainly play out. An alternate game script that I believe is more likely is that the Saints defense attempts to shore up these passing woes a bit and slides guys out of the box. The problem is the Saints defense is also awful against the run. Over the last 3 weeks, the Saints have yielded a league high 185 yards on the ground. And that was facing Jonathan Stewart, Alfred Blue and Alfred Morris. Doug Martin's floor might be 16 points. His ceiling could be 30 points. Fade him at your own peril.
     
  • Odell Beckham will be playing against Brent Grimes. That's all you need to know there. Over the last 4 weeks, Miami is yielding 301 yards and 2 TDs per game through the air. WR2 Reuben Randle bitched that he was not seeing enough action. The coach's response, "Start catching the targets we are giving you". Beckham has logged 41 targets over the last 3 games (12, 18 and 11) and with Grimes on him, he may see even more action if that is possible.
     
  • Alshon Jeffery, when healthy is a great WR. He finally looks like he is completely back having logged 23 targets in his last 2 games. Since Week 11, teams have thrown 263 yards and 2.3 passing TDs per game. With Martellus Bennett done for the year, look for Jeffery to see an uptick in his 11 to 12 targets a game. At $7,500 he is a no-brainer start in all formats.
     
  • Anquan Boldin has logged 31 targets (6th best among WRs) over the last 3 weeks. His price of $5,900 and a soft matchup against the Browns makes him desirable in cash games this week. Shaun Draughn is also underpriced in the same contest. These punts are critical to play to allow you to lock up top talent most everywhere else.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 128.1

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 125.1