Cracking FanDuel: Week 13

A look into the finer points of Week 13 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 13 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 13 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • The Saints defense have given up 16 passing TDs in their last 4 games. 7 times this year the QB playing the Saints has thrown for 300 yards and at least 2 TDs. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan might have been shown the door, but this unit just isn't any good. Cam Newton should put on a clinic. This is not a situation you really want to out-think. Jay Cutler and Alex Smith are priced good enough to play, but neither offer the upside of Cam Newton.
     
  • The Patriots draw a Philadelphia Eagles team that appears to be in full melt down. Vegas originally set the line at 13 points, but has since retreated to 9.5. The contest is tied for the highest over/under at 49 points. The two Patriots that represent significant value are TE Scott Chandler (who will have a large role due to the injury of Rob Gronkowski) and Danny Amendola (who I will bump up from his current projections when it's 100% known he will play). Over the last 4 weeks, the Eagles have been destroyed in the air giving up 275 yards and 3.8 TDs per game. I expect Tom Brady's short passing game to Amendola and Chandler to have a field day here at home. Also in play are the Patriots defense and PK Stephen Gostkowski. In GPPs, LaFell, Brady, Blount all should be considered.
     
  • The Rams run defense has been yielding a lot of yards (138 yards per game over the last 4) as of late. This is likely due to their ineffective offense forcing the defense to be on the field for large stretches. Look for that to continue as they go against a red-hot Arizona team that has it's offense playing at an exceptionally high level. This bodes well for the last Arizona RB still standing - David Johnson. At $5,900, he is criminally under-priced.
     
  • The Pittsburgh offense has been on fire. Ben Roethlisberger hung 456 passing yards on the Seahawks on the road last week. Look for Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, and DeAngelo Williams to all have large roles in the other game with a large Vegas over / under (also 49 points). Over the last 4 weeks, Pittsburgh has averaged 435 passing yards and 2 TDs per game through the air.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 133.8

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 133.6