Cracking FanDuel: Week 11

A look into the finer points of Week 11 NFL games on FanDuel

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 11 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 11 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • In Nine games, the Chargers have yielded 11 TDs in RBs this season. In 8 of those 9 games, the top RB scored 15+ FPs including 5 performances over 20+ FPs. Fade Charcandrick West at your own peril this week. He gashed the much tougher Denver unit for 29.6 FP. His salary at $7,100 is grossly incorrect.
     
  • How bad are the Washington Redskins at defending the run? Since week 5, the Redskins are yielding 181 yards on the ground per contest. Although there is always a risk of a vultured TD from Cam Newton, this should be Jonathan Stewart's best situation all season.
     
  • Who's left standing at WR? - The Chargers have lost Keenan Allen. Malcom Floyd is expected to scratch. Ladarius Green is a game-time decision. Antonio Gates has multiple ailments that he will play through. And to make matters worse the Chargers are awful at the run and play a lockdown run defense team in the Chiefs. Despite all the losses in the passing game, I still expect the Chargers to air it out against Chiefs corners that are average at best. WR Dontrelle Inman will get the start opposite of Steve Johnson and makes for an interesting GPP play. Steve Johnson should be a massive number of targets in a game with lots of offense.
     
  • Some of the best WRs in the game are facing lockdown situations this week. Julio Jones gets Vonte Davis, DeAndra Hopkins gets Revis Island, etc. Because of this, this week is among the easiest to fit under the cap in awhile. This allows you to pay up at QB (Cam Newton), TE (Rob Gronkowski) or RB (Devonta Freeman) quite easily.
     
  • In the last three games the Seahawks have played the 49ers, the 49ers have managed a total of just 13 points and 551 yards. This week's version of the 49ers is without inline blocking TE Vernon Davis and features Blaine Gabbert at QB. It's going to be UGLY. This is not a position you need to get cute at. $5,400 is cheap enough for a unit that has real shutout potential this week.

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 133.7

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 129.5