Cracking FanDuel: Week 1

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests.

Footballguys has partnered with FanDuel and as part of that deal, I will be penning a weekly piece that tries to cover some of the finer points on beating their contests. This article will usually appear on Saturdays and not include the early Thursday games.

My approach to FanDuel's Daily Games

In salary cap games where other companies are determining prices, I like to see where their thoughts differ substantially from my projections. My value chart below matches up my projections against FanDuel's prices:

Link to Week 1 Value Chart

Some explanation of my Excel manipulation is in order:

  • Everything is sorted by position
  • I have converted my projections to FanDuel Fantasy Points. These figures appear in the FP column.
  • The Price column reflects FanDuel's Week 1 Price
  • The Points per $K column reflects the expected points per $1,000 of salary allocated (the higher the value the better).
  • H-Value represents our own proprietary formula that matches price and expected fantasy points (the higher the value the better).
  • I have highlighted player's names (in green) that should be strong considerations for your lineups. They generally reflect the most bang for the buck at their respective positions. Players in yellow also are worth consideration when building your roster.

General Thoughts

Situations that stand out to me this week.

  • Las Vegas has set the over/under of the PHI/ATL game at 55 1/2 points. HC Chip Kelly would love to run the offense at an uptempo pace for nearly the whole game. He gets a struggling Atlanta defense that bodes well for that type of game script. On the other side of the ball, the Atlanta Falcons have an OL that we rate in the bottom 5 of he league. This is going to make running the ball a real challenge for the Falcons. This sets up for a game script that includes massive amounts of passing. I like all of these players in this one: QBs: Sam Bradford, Matt Ryan. RBs: none, Recs: WR Jordan Matthews, WR Julio Jones, and TE Brent Celek (if Zach Ertz scratches)
  • The New York Giants are missing their star DL Jason Pierre-Paul. It will drastically impact their ability to put any pressure on QB Tony Romo. Give Tony Romo a lot of time, and you have to expect Dez Bryant to have his way in this contest. Conversely, the Giants will be playing a Dallas defense without star CB Orlando Scandrick. That sets up well for both QB Eli Manning and his star WR Odell Beckham Jr. to play pitch and catch. Las Vegas has the over/under at 51 1/2. I think that total may be a tad low and believe this should be the highest scoring game on Sunday/Monday.
  • Aaron Rodgers has carved up the Chicago Bears the last 2 games to the tune of 10 passing TDs. And although the Packers will be without their star wideout Jordy Nelson, I like Aaron Rodgers chances to shred the terrible CB play on the Bears.
  • Early FanDuel pricing leaves many situations that should yield high points per dollar spent. These situations are very attractive to me this week:
    - QB Sam Bradford, PHI ($7,500)
    - QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF ($5,000)
    - RB Benny Cunningham, STL ($5,100)
    - WR Davante Adams, GB ($5,500)
    - WR Rueben Randle, NYG ($5,300)
    - WR Steve Johnson, SD ($4,700)
    - WR Allen Hurns, JAX ($4,600)
    - TE Martellus Bennett, CHI ($6,200)
    - TE Greg Olsen, CAR ($5,900)
    - New York Jets defense ($4,400)
    - PK Brandon McManus ($4,500)

Sample Roster 1 ($60K) - Projected Points = 125.7

  • QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF - $5,000
  • RB Benny Cunningham, STL - $5,100
  • RB Eddie Lacy, GB - $8,500
  • TE Greg Olsen, CAR - $5,900
  • WR Julio Jones, ATL - $9,000
  • WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG - $8,900
  • WR Dez Bryant, DAL - $9,000
  • TD New York Jets - $4,400
  • PK Brandon McManus, DEN - $4,500

Sample Roster 2 ($60K) - Projected Points = 121.6

  • QB Sam Bradford, PHI - $7,500
  • RB Lamar Miller, MIA $7,300
  • RB Eddie Lacy, GB - $8,500
  • TE Martellus Bennett, CHI - $6,200
  • WR Davante Adams, GB - $5,500
  • WR Odell Beckham Jr., NYG - $8,900
  • WR Jordan Matthews, PHI - $6,800
  • TD New York Jets - $4,400
  • PK Matt Prater, DET - $4,700