The Contrarian: FanDuel Week 3

Photo: USA Today Sports

If ever there were an argument for fading the crowd, Week 2 gave us definitive proof. Outside of Julio Jones and Rob Gronkowski, the highest owned player at each position (Drew Brees, Carlos Hyde, John Brown, Rams defense) combined for 34.2 points. The chalk play was a bankroll killer.

Was it a fluke? Possibly. We’re still in the pre-trend era of the 2015 season. We are young and have a lot to learn. But regardless, the process will remain unchanged. 

Just like with fades, we’ll never advocate going contrarian for the sake contrarianism. There is a method to uniqueness. Throwing darts at low-floor, bottom depth chart players is not a part of that method. Taking advantage of injury situations and over/under point totals from Vegas is.

Going forward, we’ll have to leave our comfort zones a little bit. So be sure to protect your bankrolls and limit how much you invest as a contrarian. And definitely use the Interactive Value Chart as a part of your process. It incorporates the core of your roster with the ease of lineup optimization and top-20 stack rankings. Complete with strategy guides for both cash and tournament games, you won’t find a more comprehensive daily fantasy tool anywhere. Use it and abuse it. You can also check out our Cracking FanDuel blog for more information and updates.

The numbers presented in the tables below are taken from a $2 Thursday night GPP. We can use these exposure percentages to assist our ownership projections for Sunday/Monday GPPs. Doing so increases our accuracy and provides a clearer picture of groupthink—something we’ll almost always try to avoid.

Quarterbacks

It looked bad. We were nearing the two-minute warning and Peyton Manning had only 85 yards, one interception and no touchdowns. By halftime he put a pair of touchdowns on the board and finished the game with 256 yards and three scores. Imagine if the offense had things together for the entire game. Whether or not you’re worried about his arm strength, Manning is still one of the best in the league at reading defenses and pulling his team out of deficits. It doesn’t hurt that his own defense will keep fields short for him in the process. For just $8,200 we can get an elite passer that the crowd is snoozing on.

And if we consider Manning’s exposure snoozing, Andrew Luck’s 1.5 percent ownership has the crowd in a coma. Fantasy drafts would look a lot different if everyone knew that after two weeks he would have only three touchdowns to five interceptions. Recent performance hasn’t impacted his salary but it has scared off the masses. This week he travels to Nashville and will face a Titans secondary that made Travis Benjamin look like the second coming of Odell Beckham Jr. When the crowd fades the player, fade the crowd.

In the bargain bin, as always, we find Nick Foles. This will be his second straight appearance in this space. But this time, it’s personal (it’s not actually personal). In Week 1, at home, Foles led the Rams to an overtime victory, and clocked out with 297 yards, one passing touchdown and one rushing touchdown (10^th most points of the week). After a horrible game on the road, he returns to the comfort of the Edward Jones Dome where he’ll face a defense that has allowed 579 yards and six touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, and has yet to register an interception. Expecting tournament value from his $6,500 salary (19.5 points) is well within reason, setting Foles up as the contrarian play of the week.

running backs

It has been reported that Drew Brees won’t play in Carolina. The Panthers are home favorites against a shabby offense now missing its best player, and no shot of the defense keeping the Saints relevant in this contest. Jonathan Stewart will cost you only $6,500 and the crowd won’t even know. The ground game is going to be on full display in Charlotte.  

In that same price range we find Isaiah Crowell, who, despite being out-snapped by Duke Johnson last week, put together a respectable box score. It’ll be hard to predict which running back is going to provide the most value as the season grinds on. For now, Crowell is the getting the majority of carries and all of the goal line work. The Browns offensive line is one of the best in the league. The Oakland Raiders run defense is one of the worst. Crowell should find the end zone at least once. Or, if your looking for a high-risk value play, consider Johnson.

Like Manning, C.J. Anderson has lost the crowd’s trust. That’s just fine by us. We think he gets it going this week in Detroit.

More CJ Anderson ammunition: He's run 47 pass routes to Ronnie Hillman's 15 this year.

— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 24, 2015

There’s not much to be concerned about from a usage standpoint. The offensive line is worth worry but Manning covers some of those problems. The Lions have allowed the fifth most rushing yards this season and are susceptible to pass-catching running backs. Anderson should be good for three or four dump-offs, and few shots at the end zone.

Deep in the bargain bin we find Lance Dunbar. While it’s hard to be excited about anyone on the Cowboys offense after the injuries they’ve suffered, Dunbar will get a few extra snaps thanks to his pass-catching ability. This week he gets the Atlanta Falcons, who have allowed 199 receiving yards on 24 receptions to running backs this season. There’s nothing attractive about the 45-point over/under in this game, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Cowboys fall behind and Dunbar soak up garbage-time snaps.

wide receivers

A.J. Green is a top-shelf wide receiver that the crowd generally fades. There’s always the Dalton Effect to be concerned about—that is, Andy Dalton on the road in a divisional game—but the Ravens secondary just surrendered 220 yards and two touchdowns to the combination of Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. Green is in a great spot for his first breakout game of the season.

If T.Y. Hilton plays Sunday, and it sounds like he will after practicing Friday, we’ll be happy to pay his fee of $7,600. There’s no one in the Titans secondary that can cover him, even if his history against them isn’t great. If the Colts are going to turn things around, and we believe they will, they’ll start by using their best playmakers early and often against Tennessee.

The idea behind identifying a contrarian play has more to it than just looking at exposure numbers and throwing darts at low-priced options. We need logic. Logic backed with historical data if we can find it. Historically, Bill Belichick’s defenses have targeted the best player an offense has and removed said player. Basically, a beat us some other way approach. We’ll see how that is and how well that works when they face Allen Robinson and the Jaguars. In any case, Allen Hurns could see plenty of action as Blake Bortles is asked to throw 40 times. There’s nothing sexy about Hurns. He is, without question, a high-risk value play. But he has been steady through two weeks, collecting nine receptions for 128 yards. Eventually, one of those receptions will be in the end zone, at which point he’ll hit tournament value. He hasn’t had many opportunities on that side of the field yet, but an increase in volume, which you would expect against the Patriots, should create those opportunities.

The Houston Texans pass rush may destroy any hope Jameis Winston and Co. have of building a winning streak before it even begins. But with their starting tight end out for several weeks, and Mike Evans finally off of a pitch count, now is the time to take advantage of his salary and limited exposure. We’re certain the Buccaneers won’t be able to run the ball, and we’re not worried about the Texans secondary. Evans has a good matchup and should finally payoff after being hampered for the first few weeks.

tight ends

Basically, the only way to be a contrarian at tight end is by fading Gronkowski. He is the second highest owned player per Thursday night numbers. But if you’re looking for an upside play at a discount, Jared Cook is fifth in receptions and seventh in yards. The only thing missing from his game is a touchdown or two. Feel free to be courageous with a Foles/Cook stack.

Greg Olsen is the only receiver that’s going to consistently produce for the Panthers. It may not seem that way when you look at their box score, but he leads the team in targets despite only seeing three in Week 1. He’s also been targeted only two times in the red zone. The touchdown drought ends this Sunday against the Saints.

Before his injury in Week 1, Delanie Walker had converted all three of his targets into 43 yards and a touchdown. He’ll return to action just in time for the Titans first home game against a soft Colts defense that has yet to be tested by a tight end of his skill set. His salary of $5,200 gives us a plenty of roster flexibility with out sacrificing our floor at this position.

DEFENSE

Avoiding a chalk play is going to be difficult this week. The Jets, Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots and Panthers are all worth their respective price tags, despite ownership. The Texans will be under owned at home against a rookie quarterback. Even though we like Evans, it’s not unfathomable that Winston plants a few passes into the hands of defenders.

And for $400 less, a decent pass rush, a top cornerback and the threat of Benjamin returning punts for touchdowns makes the Browns a sneaky play the crowd won’t consider.

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