Photo: Jeffrey Becker, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space.  FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season.  Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend.  The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs.  Let’s dive in…

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT

The 5-2 San Diego Chargers, fresh off a disappointing home loss to the Chiefs, travel to Mile High Stadium Thursday night to take on the 5-1 Denver Broncos.  The AFC West showdown should give NFL fans a better feel of the true identity of the Chargers who, excluding an impressive win over the defending Super Bowl champ Seahawks, have beaten only subpar teams (Buffalo, Jacksonville, NY Jets, and Oakland), while losing to the Cardinals and Chiefs.  There are, however, no questions about the legitimacy of the Broncos, who, aside from a loss to the aforementioned Seahawks in Seattle, have been absolutely dominating their opponents in 2014.  Vegas favors the Broncos by ~ 9 points and has the total set at 50 points.

Digging into the metrics a bit, the first thing that pops out about the Chargers is how bad their offensive line has been in 2014.  The Chargers have the worst rated run-blocking offensive line in the NFL and their pass blocking is not much better at 28^th (per PFF); given that the Broncos are 3rd in the NFL in sacks, that does not bode well for the Chargers' offense.  If one also considers the number of injuries suffered at the running back position (Ryan Mathews, Danny Woodhead, Donald Brown), the Chargers' winning record is a testament to how well Philip Rivers has played this season and the fact that they are vying for top spot in the AFC West.  His matchup against the Broncos is likely the toughest he has seen all season, however, as the Broncos are stout against the run allowing only 74.3 yards per game, which means that Rivers will likely be forced to air it out to keep pace with the Broncos potent offense.  One of his weapons, WR Malcolm Floyd will line up against Chris Harris, Jr., who is currently rated the #1 coverage cornerback in all of football; thus, the burden of the receiving game will fall to either Keenan Allen or Antonio Gates.  Gates is the player who is more attractive because Denver has covered the tight end position poorly over the past few years, but Allen will become a target simply out of necessity.  Branden Oliver, despite playing well over his first few starts, should be minimized by this Denver defense for two reasons: 1) they are ranked 3^rd against the rush in yards per game, and 2) San Diego may have to abandon the running game early to stay in contention.

As is the case every week, all offensive Bronco players are fair game.  The Chargers have been tough against opposing quarterbacks, but those quarterbacks were not named Peyton Manning.  Peyton is expensive in daily format, but he is consistent and has tremendous upside, both of which justify his high salary.  Demaryius Thomas is red-hot entering Thursday’s game, garnering 37 targets over the previous 3 games and looking like the 2013 version of himself during that time.  Both Wes Welker and Emmanuel Sanders are somewhat baffling, as they will get 10 targets in one game and then fall off the map in the next game, so it is difficult to recommend them for anything other than tournament play.  Julius Thomas is tied with Demaryius Thomas for redzone targets (12), but lacks the target consistency that one might like to see when putting together a cash game roster.  For the running game, Ronnie Hillman is doing his best to keep Montee Ball from regaining his starting gig at the RB when he returns from injury; Hillman had back-to-back 100-yard performances against the Jets and Raiders before he regressed a bit last week against a solid Chiefs’ defensive front.  He could be sneaky here, particularly if Denver jumps to an early lead.

Predicted Score:  Denver 31, San Diego 17

Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:

4-stars:  None

3-stars:  Peyton Manning (DK @ $8900, FD @ $10,200; Cash & GPP)

2-stars:  Demaryius Thomas (DK @ $7900, FD @ $9400; Cash & GPP)

1-star:  Ronnie Hillman (DK @ $4900, FD @ $7000; GPP only), Antonio Gates (DK @ $5600, FD @ $6500; GPP only), Wes Welker (DK only @ $3700; GPP only), Keenan Allen (DK @ $4400, FD @ $6400; GPP only)

KICKERS

Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend.  If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team.  With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):

Dan Bailey, DAL ($5400 versus Washington):  The Cowboys are projected to score more points than any other team in the NFL this week and Dan Bailey is near-perfect on the season.  If you have the salary space, he is a fine play against the Redskins.

Shayne Graham, NO ($4800 versus Green Bay):  Graham has 12 fantasy points in each of the previous two weeks and he is playing in the game with the highest projected Vegas total.  At $4800, he is simply too cheap.

Matt Prater, DET ($4500 versus Atlanta):  Prater had a tumultuous start with the Lions a few weeks ago, but settled in last week.  Due to his bad start, his salary is still depressed; he is one of the better kickers in the league and is playing in a dome against a team with a poor defense.  At minimum price, he looks attractive this week.

TEAM DEFENSES

Seahawks (versus Carolina):   (FD: $5300, DK: $3200).  The Seahawks look like a bad team right now, but they find themselves in a must-win situation against the Carolina Panthers after two consecutive losses.  The Panthers have virtually no running game and only one legitimate wide receiver in Kelvin Benjamin, which makes Carolina's offense somewhat one-dimensional.  With the Seahawks in desperation mode, look for them to lean on their defense to give them a boost.

Chiefs (versus St. Louis):   (FD: $4800, DK: $2800).  The Chiefs' defense is under the radar right now.  The are ranked 2nd in the league against the pass, yielding only 209 yards per game and they have yet to give up a rushing touchdown on the year.  With St. Louis riding high off their upset victory of the Seahawks last week, this is the perfect letdown situation for the Rams, as they travel to Arrowhead to face this stingy defense.

Cowboys (versus Washington):   (FD: $4700, DK: $3000).  Vegas projects Washington to score ~ 20 points on Monday night.  While the Cowboys have not been stellar on defense, they could very well be facing former Texas Longhorns' standout, Colt McCoy.  If McCoy starts, the Cowboys' defense could be in for a nice night, as McCoy will surely be rusty after not starting an NFL game nearly 3 years.

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