Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Dallas | Washington | -10 | 49.5 | 29.75 | +++ | + | + |
New England | Chicago | -7 | 50.5 | 28.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | New Orleans | 0 | 56 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
New Orleans | Green Bay | 0 | 56 | 28 | +++ | +++ | |
Indianapolis | Pittsburgh | -2.5 | 49 | 25.75 | + | ++ | |
Kansas City | St. Louis | -7.5 | 44 | 25.75 | ++ | ++ | |
Cleveland | Oakland | -7.5 | 43.5 | 25.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Detroit | Atlanta | -3.5 | 47 | 25.25 | + | + | |
Arizona | Philadelphia | -2.5 | 48 | 25.25 | + | + | |
Seattle | Carolina | -5 | 45 | 25 | ++ | ||
Miami | Jacksonville | -7 | 43 | 25 | ++ | + | |
Pittsburgh | Indianapolis | 2.5 | 49 | 23.25 | |||
Baltimore | Cincinnati | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||
Philadelphia | Arizona | 2.5 | 48 | 22.75 | |||
Cincinnati | Baltimore | 0 | 45.5 | 22.75 | |||
Tampa Bay | Minnesota | -2.5 | 41.5 | 22 | |||
Chicago | New England | 7 | 50.5 | 21.75 | |||
Houston | Tennessee | -1 | 42.5 | 21.75 | |||
Atlanta | Detroit | 3.5 | 47 | 21.75 | |||
NY Jets | Buffalo | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | + | ||
Tennessee | Houston | 1 | 42.5 | 20.75 | |||
Carolina | Seattle | 5 | 45 | 20 | |||
Washington | Dallas | 10 | 49.5 | 19.75 | + | ||
Minnesota | Tampa Bay | 2.5 | 41.5 | 19.5 | |||
Buffalo | NY Jets | 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | |||
St. Louis | Kansas City | 7.5 | 44 | 18.25 | + | ||
Oakland | Cleveland | 7.5 | 43.5 | 18 | + | ||
Jacksonville | Miami | 7 | 43 | 18 | + |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Green Bay (versus New Orleans): The fantasy game of the week features two high-flying offenses going against one another in the Superdome. Both teams are slated to score 28 points against the opposing defense. Both teams have future Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks. Both teams have issues on defense, but have no problems on offense. Neither team is favored to win, which means this one could go back and forth for 4 quarters. Enjoy.
- New Orleans (versus Green Bay): See above and switch teams.
RUNNING GAME
- Dallas (versus Washington): The Cowboys' running game is on fire and they are 10-point favorites on Monday Night football against the Redskins. DeMarco Murray has 7 consecutive 100-yard games and is in a good spot for number 8 with this matchup, where the Cowboys will be heavy on the running game to protect a lead in the second half of the game.
- Green Bay (versus New Orleans): All offensive players are in play in this matchup...on both sides of the ball. Any NFL game with a total of 50+ points that features two evenly-matched teams is chock-full of fantasy goodness.
- New Orleans (versus Green Bay): See above and switch teams.
TEAM DEFENSE
- None.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- New England (versus Chicago) Somewhat surprisingly, the on-again, off-again Patriots offense is slated to score 29 points against the Bears this weekend; two weeks ago, New England lost Stevan Ridley for the season, so their running game is still in flux. If they are to hit the total that Vegas predicts, Tom Brady and company will surely have a role in making that happen.
- Indianapolis (versus Pittsburgh): Andrew Luck has been spectacular this season; he is averaging 333 yards and nearly 3 touchdowns per game. This week, he gets a matchup against a subject Steelers' defense that just gave up 23 points to the lowly Houston Texans on Monday night; with oddsmakers projecting 25+ points this weekend, the Colts' passing game is attractive in fantasy circles.
RUNNING GAME
- New England (versus Chicago): As the 2nd-highest scoring team on the Vegas scoreboard, the Patriots have a lot of fantasy potential this weekend against the Bears. While their running game is in question, somebody has to tote the rock to get them to 29 points. Look to Shane Vereen.
- Kansas City (versus St. Louis): The Chiefs have one of the best running backs in the game in Jamaal Charles. With a 26-point projection out of Vegas, the Chiefs will have to score 3+ touchdowns to reach that number, yet they have almost no passing game; thus, Charles should be high on your DFS list this weekend.
- Cleveland (versus Oakland): Cleveland is touchdown-plus favorite at home with a top-5 offensive line against a very porous Oakland run defense. Give some serious consideration to Ben Tate, who will be ready to bounce back after a disappointing week against the Jags.
- Seattle (versus Carolina): Seattle is in a must-win situation after dropping back-to-back games to Dallas and St. Louis. This week, they travel to Carolina, where Vegas sees them as 5-point favorites who should score ~ 25 points. With Carolina sitting dead-last in rushing yards allowed (per carry), Marshawn Lynch should be a in fantastic spot to return to excellence after 2 consecutive letdown performances.
- Miami (versus Jacksonville): Lamar Miller has scored four touchdowns over the past three games and faces a dreadful Jaguar front seven this weekend. Oddsmakers project the Dolphins to score 25 points and have them as 7-point favorites against the Jags, which should favor Miller's opportunities, particularly now that Knowshon Moreno is out for the season with an ACL tear.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Kansas City (versus St. Louis): The Chiefs return home as big favorites against a Rams team that is in store for a letdown game after upsetting the Seahawks last week. Vegas agrees with that sentiment, as they have the Chiefs projected to hold the Rams to 18 points. The KC defense is sneaky good; they rank 2nd in passing yards allowed and have not given up a single rushing touchdown all season.
- Cleveland (versus Oakland): Cleveland's defense has been anything but good this season, but they get a home game against the 31st-ranked scoring offense in the NFL. Given Oakland's offensive struggles and the Vegas line, Cleveland could be a DFS-worthy defense for Week #8.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Dallas (versus Washington): Dallas has been leaning heavily on the run all season and it has been paying dividends, but with a 30-point projection from Vegas, there has to be some upside with Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, and Terrence Williams on Monday Night Football. If the salary is reasonable, any of these players should get your consideration.
- Detroit (versus Atlanta): The Lions are projected to score ~ 25 points on Sunday against the hapless Falcon defense in London; if this game is on your DFS slate (it may not be because of the early kickoff time), both Matt Stafford and Golden Tate are solid options against the 4th worst team in the NFL against the pass.
- Arizona (versus Philadelphia): The battle of questionable 5-1 teams takes place in Arizona this weekend and Vegas likes the Cards by a nose. Because this could be a high-scoring affair, all facets of the Cardinal offense are in play, including Carson Palmer and his receivers...particularly in light of how bad the Eagles' defense has been against the pass (2.1 touchdowns per game allowed).
- Washington (versus Dallas): The starting quarterback for the Redskins is still unknown as of the writing of this article. Jay Gruden has indicated it will be former Texas Longhorns' standout, Colt McCoy. Regardless of the starter, Vegas thinks that the Redskins will be forced to throw the ball often to keep up with the Cowboys' offense; if that happens, Alfred Morris will quickly be forgotten and the emphasis will be on getting the ball to Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson.
- St. Louis (versus Kansas City): The Rams put together a masterpiece of a game last week against the visiting Seahawks to pull off a big upset. This week, they travel to Arrowhead, where they once again are 8-point underdogs. If the Chiefs manage to build an early lead, we might get to see if Austin Davis can work his magic two weeks in a row (he completed 17/20 last week for 155 yards and 2 touchdowns).
- Oakland (versus Cleveland): It is not very often that somebody recommends the Oakland offense for anything other than taking the opposing defense, but Derek Carr could be in play for GPP purposes this weekend. The Browns just gave up 24 points to the Jaguars last week, so they could very well yield some decent yardage and a touchdown or two to the Raiders, who are projected to be chasing points on Sunday.
- Jacksonville (versus Miami): Fresh off their victory against the Browns last week, the Jaguars host the Dolphins in Week #8. Miami comes to town as a 7-point favorite, which means that the Jags could be forced to air it out often against the Dolphins, particularly when one considers that the Dolphins are stout against the rush.
RUNNING GAME
- Indianapolis (versus Pittsburgh): The Colts are slated to score ~ 26 points against the Steelers, who have been throttled via the run when facing higher caliber running backs this season. While neither Trent Richardson, nor Ahmad Bradshaw get 20+ carries each game, there could be some fantasy value to be extracted from one of these players, if the salary is right.
- Detroit (versus Atlanta): All offensive players are fantasy-worthy when they play against the Falcons' defense. Atlanta has given up a league high 13 touchdowns on the ground this season; the next closest are Carolina and NY Giants with 8 touchdowns allowed, which exemplifies just how bad the Falcons' rushing defense truly is. Detroit has not been great running the ball this year, but there would no better spot for them to turns things around on the ground.
- Arizona (versus Philadelphia): In a back-and-forth battle of good offenses, the Cardinals will feature Andre Ellington against the Eagles' defense. Ellington has been impressive this year, making waves on both sides of the offense; with Philadelphia ranking in the bottom ten of rush defenses, Ellington is a viable option this weekend.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Dallas (versus Washington): If Vegas projects a team to score less than 20 points and that team's QB is Colt McCoy, the opposing defense should be near the top of your lists for DFS games.
- Miami (versus Jacksonville): The Jaguars have the lowest team total on the entire board this weekend and they will start Blake Bortles, who leads the league in interceptions. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have a top 5 passing and a top 10 rushing defense...things do not look promising for the Jaguars this weekend.
- NY Jets (versus Buffalo): Buffalo lost their top two running backs for at least a month last week and will feature Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown against the Jets' front seven this Sunday; given how stingy the Jets' defense is against the run, the only option for Kyle Orton will be to pass the ball. Vegas does not believe will be too successful, as evidenced by their 19-point projection for the Bills. The Jets could represent a cheap GPP option for DFS game slates.