For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady (Primarily GPP; FD: $8600, DK: $7200). Don’t look now, but Tom Brady has been returning to form; over the past 3 games, Brady is averaging 300 yards and 3 touchdown passes per game. Why is he improving? Four factors have contributed to his resurgence: 1) Pats opponents have been weaker recently, 2) losing Stevan Ridley has forced the Patriots to throw more frequently, including to RB Shane Vereen, 3) Rob Gronkowski has gotten healthier and is playing full games, and 4) the Pats have been increasing their ‘no huddle’ snaps, which increases the pace of the game and positively impacts scoring. This week, the Patriots face the Bears, who are 26th in pass coverage on the season, but rate well (12th) against the run (per PFF), which means that the Pats will likely pass often. With his high-end salary, most DFS gamers will likely elect to spend slightly more for the big guys (Rodgers/Luck) or drop lower for value plays, which should make him low-owned for GPP’s. Lastly, Vegas projects New England to score nearly 30 points, too…all of which bodes well for Brady’s DFS prospects this weekend.
Ryan Tannehill (GPP only; FD: $8400, DK: $6700). Ryan Tannehill has been quietly putting up some solid fantasy stats this season. He has thrown for more than 30 passes in every game this year, he is averaging just under 2 touchdowns per game, and he has 130 yards rushing over the past 3 games. This Sunday, Tannehill gets a prime matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose secondary is downright terrible and will likely be missing starting CB Alan Ball; the Jags, however, are semi-decent against the run, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry, which should force the Dolphins to emphasize the passing game. At his price point, Tannehill will be low-owned because he does not have the name recognition of other guys in that price range; he represents a great GPP play for these reasons.
Ben Roethlisberger (Primarily GPP; FD: $7500, DK: $5800). Ben Roethlisberger finally got his big receiver last week when rookie Martavis Bryant made his season debut; Bryant made a splash by catching a 35-yard TD pass early in the game and would have had another if Roethlisberger were just a little more accurate on the throw. Against the Colts on Sunday, the Steelers will almost assuredly be playing from behind, which should force Roethlisberger to air it out to keep pace. The Colts are actually quite competent against the pass, but Roethlisberger’s fair salary keeps him in play for GPP games…particularly now that he has both Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant as receivers.
Kyle Orton (GPP only; FD: $7200, DK: $6300). Full disclosure: I never would have envisioned recommending Kyle Orton for DFS anywhere, but I am. Orton has been surprisingly serviceable after replacing E.J. Manuel a few weeks ago; since that time, Orton has thrown ~ 40 times for nearly 300 yards in three consecutive games and has 5 passing TD’s over that span. This week, he gets the porous NY Jets’ secondary, who have given up a league-high 18 passing touchdowns through 7 weeks; with the Bills top two running backs out with injuries, look for Orton to continue chucking the ball to Sammy Watkins in Week #8.
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Aaron Rodgers (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,000, DK: $9000). The Green Bay Packers fly south to New Orleans to play the Saints in the Superdome this weekend and this game should be a dandy. The game is a pick’em and the Vegas total is 56 points, which means that it should be a back-and-forth battle of 2 future Hall-of-Famers in Rodgers and Brees. Of those quarterbacks, Rodgers is the better play because of how poor the Saints’ passing defense has played to this point; New Orleans is 28th in the league against the pass, giving up over 270 yards through the air each game this season. With Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Davante Adams as receivers, Rodgers is destined to have a huge game.
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP format; FD: $9900, DK: $8800). Andrew Luck is averaging over 40 passing attempts per game, which makes him a consistent performer in the cash game section of this series. When a QB throws the ball 40+ times every game, good things are bound to happen. This week, he gets the Steelers, who have not faced a good QB this year, let alone an elite QB--they will have their hands full with Luck and Colts’ offense on Sunday. Expect more of the same from Luck and roster him with confidence in your cash games.
Nick Foles (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8200, DK: $6300). Nick Foles’ salary dropped across the industry this week because he is coming off a bye week. Their upcoming opponents, the Arizona Cardinals, are tough against the run, yielding 72.5 rushing yards per game, but are horrendous against the pass (31st in the NFL) and get almost no pressure on opposing quarterbacks. If Foles is given time in this Chip Kelley offense, he should have no problem reaching value against this secondary. At a modest salary, Foles is a nice mid-range selection for this weekend’s slate.
Teddy Bridgewater (Cash and GPP format; FD: $5400, DK: $5100). It is with some degree of hesitation that Bridgewater appears in the cash game section of this article, but his salary is just too cheap given his matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Simply put: At his salary, Teddy needs 11 points on FanDuel and 15 points on DraftKings to reach value for cash games. Against the horrid Tampa secondary, that represents 200 yards passing and a touchdown (or thereabouts), which should be no problem against a Bucs’ team that is yielding ~ 300 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game through the air this season. If you want salary relief to roster studs at other positions (i.e., DeMarco Murray, Jordy Nelson, etc.), Bridgewater is your guy.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Jeremy Maclin (Primarily GPP; FD: $8000, DK: $5500). Jeremy Maclin will be extremely underowned this weekend because he had a terrible game against the Giants, which was followed by a bye week; those two factors will play into a ‘recency bias,’ whereby the majority of DFS gamers will not roster him because he has not performed well within recent memory. By virtue of this column, you have been advised to consider Maclin for your GPP lineups because he was averaging ~ 12 targets per game prior to that dud against the Giants; if he gets 12 targets against the Cardinals, who are ranked 31st in the NFL against the pass, Maclin could feasibly get 8 receptions for 100+ yards and a touchdown (or two).
T.Y. Hilton (Primarily GPP; FD: $7900, DK: $6800) and Donte Moncrief (GPP only; FD: $5100, DK: $3000). T.Y. Hilton is averaging 10 targets per game and matches up against Cortez Allen, who is having a wretched season; meanwhile, Reggie Wayne has not practiced yet this week, which should bode well for rookie Donte Moncrief’s snap count on Sunday. In a game where the Steelers are projected to score 26 points, both Hilton and Moncrief represent solid GPP plays at different price points against a defense that has not yet been tested by a quality passing offense.
Greg Jennings (GPP only; FD: $5500, DK: $4000). Greg Jennings is the most-targeted receiver in the Vikings offense and he will matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs’ secondary this weekend; the Bucs’ defense is dead-last in a whole slew of statistical categories against the pass, which should help Jennings accumulate some fantasy goodness. Given the fact that Jennings has done little this season, his salary is low, but his upside is immense in this matchup; all of these factors make him an ideal tournament play, particularly if he is as low-owned as I suspect he will be.
Jermaine Kearse (GPP only; FD: $4900, DK: $4000) and Paul Richardson (Primarily GPP; FD: $4900, DK: $3000). With the Percy Harvin trade complete, Doug Baldwin got all the action last week…which means that he will get all the attention from the DFS public this week. The sneaky plays in Week #8 will be the other two wide receivers in the Seahawks’ offense. Jermaine Kearse will line up against the Panthers’ Antoine Cason, who is ranked 101st (out of 106) in pass coverage this season; Paul Richardson will get Melvin White, who is not much better than Cason in coverage. At bargain salaries, both guys should be on your GPP radar this weekend. [If you are into this kind of information, high-volume DFS player CONDIA rostered Kearse in a $25 50/50 on FanDuel this week, which certainly supports my initial thoughts on him.]
Martavis Bryant (GPP only; FD: $4800, DK: $3000). Bryant made his NFL debut last week after the Steelers came to the stark realization that they had no 6-foot plus redzone target in their receiving corps. Bryant caught a 35-yard touchdown and could have had another TD if Ben Roethlisberger had thrown a more accurate pass early in the game. Nonetheless, the 6’5” Bryant will definitely get plenty of looks in the redzone from this point forward; plus, Bryant will be shadowed by CB Greg Toler, who ranks in the bottom 10% of cornerbacks on the season. If the Steelers fall behind early, Bryant could get a lot more looks this week than he did last week in his season-opener; at near minimum-salary on both sites, he represents solid value for tournament play.
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Jordy Nelson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8800, DK: $7800). Jordy Nelson may never leave this section of this column. He had an ‘off’ week last week and finished with 16 and 18 points on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. On Sunday night, Nelson will find himself in the marquis game of the week against the Saints, who are yielding 270+ yards per game through the air, which is 28th in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is giving Nelson 10.4 targets per game and the Packers are projected to score 4 touchdowns, which makes Jordy a great play for your cash games.
Antonio Brown (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8700, DK: $8000). Speaking of guys who may not leave this section, Antonio Brown is a model of consistency. Brown now has 19-consecutive games with at least 5 catches and 50 yards…which is good enough for 7.5 points on FanDuel and 10 points on DraftKings; those numbers represent Brown’s floor, but his ceiling is much higher, particularly if the Steelers will be playing from behind. Brown will draw CB Vontae Davis, who is solid in coverage, but until somebody shuts him down, Brown will stay in this spot.
Sammy Watkins (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7300, DK: $5700). Excluding his NFL debut and Week #6 when he was shadowed by Darrell Revis, Sammy Watkins has averaged 11 targets per game. This week, Watkins will get the opportunity to exploit the Jets’ secondary, who have given up a league-leading 18 passing touchdowns while managing only a single interception thus far. With both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson out with injuries, look for Kyle Orton to feed the ball to Watkins all day long on Sunday; at his moderate price tag, Watkins could be a boon to your cash game lineup.
Andre Johnson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7000, DK: $5300). Tennessee cornerback Blidi Wreh-Wilson bleeds yardage to whomever he covers; on Sunday, Andre Johnson gets his turn through the Wreh-Wilson fantasy turnstile. Multiple reports out of the Texans' locker room all seem to concur that Andre Johnson has not been getting enough looks in their offense; if that is true, Johnson should see more than the 9 targets/game he has been getting to this point in the season, which adds to his cash game value. Given these facts, Johnson seems like a no-brainer for all formats on Sunday.
Davante Adams (Cash only; FD: $5400, DK: $3500). Davante Adams’ snap count has increased almost every week during his rookie season and Aaron Rodgers cannot seem to say enough positive things about him. In a matchup against the Saints’ porous secondary, Adams would appear to be situated for a huge game, particularly given his ridiculously-low salary. Adams only got a single target last week (a 10-yard touchdown), but the gamescript precluded excessive passing in the second half; this week, in a matchup against the Saints, each team’s passing game should be on full display. If Adams reaches 10 fantasy points, he pays off his salary and allows you some flexibility at other positions.
