Kudos go out to David (@kyehawk586) who reached out to me on Twitter to provide some feedback about how Tips & Picks helped him multiply his starting bankroll by 15-fold! If you have a profitable week thanks to FootballGuys DFS content and/or Tips & Picks, be sure to tweet me early in the week so that I can include your success in this column next Friday! See the end of this article for another impressive success story!!
For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Dwayne Allen (Primarily GPP; FD: $6000, DK: $3900). Dwayne Allen makes a repeat performance in the GPP section of Tips & Picks again this week after he caught 3 passes for 52 yards and a touchdown last week. Allen is an attractive GPP target because he does not get a slew of targets, but the targets that he does get are generally in the redzone, which makes them 'high-value' targets. His opponent this Sunday, the Pittsburgh Steelers, are ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, which bodes well for this big redzone monster. Indy is projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns, which also boosts enthusiasm for Allen.
Zach Ertz (Primarily GPP; FD: $5400, DK: $3200). The Arizona Cardinals have ranked in the bottom 10 teams in defending opposing tight ends for several years running now. This Sunday, the Cardinals host the Philadelphia Eagles, who are coming off a bye week and looking to keep pace with the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East; to their credit, the Cards are strong against the run, but they have struggled against the pass, which should catapult Ertz to the top of your list for GPP tournaments. Ertz is still not getting a majority of the offensive snaps in the Eagles' offense, but he is generally in the game on passing plays, which boosts his value. At a fair price on both sites and a plus matchup against Arizona, Zach Ertz is an option for your GPP lineups this weekend.
Scott Chandler (GPP only; FD: $5100, DK: $3100). Scott Chandler is my favorite GPP tight end this weekend for several reasons: 1) he is cheap, 2) he is not a well-known player, 3) he plays for the Bills, 4) his quarterback is Kyle Orton, and 5) he will be less than 2% owned in DFS games. Nobody in the country is happier than Chandler that Kyle Orton was handed the reigns to this offense a few weeks ago. Prior to Orton, Chandler was averaging 3 receptions and 29 yards per game; since Orton became the starter in Buffalo, Chandler is averaging 4.3 receptions and 54 yards per game (on 7 targets per game). Chandler is a big man at 6'7" tall, which means he will be a prime target in the redzone against the Jets, who are ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7200, DK: $5900). It took awhile, but the Patriots' offense is finally clicking and Rob Gronkowski is healthy; these two phenomena are certainly interrelated. Over the previous 3 weeks, Gronk has 18 catches on 30 targets for 262 yards and a touchdown; his salary is still reasonable because he has not scored often...but that is going to change in the near future. Vegas projects the Patriots to score nearly 30 points and Gronk is their primary redzone threat, which means that a double-touchdown Sunday could be imminent.
Jordan Reed (Cash and GPP format; FD: $5200, DK: $4000). If you cannot afford to pay Gronk's salary, you might consider the Redskins' Jordan Reed. In his two weeks since returning from injury, Reed has been an instrumental part of the Redskins' passing game and should only see his involvement increase on Monday night when he faces the Cowboys, who are allowing 7.1 catches and 77.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends (31st in the NFL). Furthermore, the Redskins will start Colt McCoy, which could (literally) play into Reed's hands if McCoy begins to checkdown to the TE, as a lot of inexperienced quarterbacks will do.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Shane Vereen (Primarily GPP; FD: $6800, DK: $6200). Now that Stevan Ridley has gone down for the season with a torn ACL/MCL, there is opportunity in the Patriots' backfield. Last week, Vereen increased his snap count from ~ 50% to 80% of New England's offensive plays, indicating that Bill Belichick sees him as the heir to the lead RB. Vereen's pass targets doubled from his season average last week and he saw a season-high 11 carries, both of which further argue that Vereen is the RB to roster in New England this weekend. Against the Bears' defensive front, Vereen could be a great play because of his involvement in both phases of the Pats' offense, particularly in light of the fact that New England is project to score almost 30 points on Sunday. In GPP format, Vereen is enticing because he will be underowned due to DFS games not trusting what Belichick will do with his backfield.
Doug Martin (Primarily GPP; FD: $6600, DK: $4400) Doug Martin is a prototypical GPP running back not because he is subpar 80% of the time, but because he will put up a 150-yard, 2-touchdown performance every so often. Martin has not yet had a breakout performance this season and he gets the Minnesota Vikings, who are giving up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2014; if the Bucs' offensive line can manage to create a hole or two, something they have not done much this season, Martin could have a huge day against the Vikings. He is a risky play, but will certainly differentiate your rosters from the masses because he will be a 1% owned player in most GPP contests this weekend.
Darren McFadden (Primarily GPP; FD: $6100, DK: $4700). The Cleveland Browns are ranked dead-last in rushing yards allowed against the run (155.7) and, for that reason alone, Darren McFadden should be given consideration for DFS tournies on Sunday. McFadden has been far from serviceable in his role at the lead RB in Oakland, but it is not entirely his fault--the Raiders rank 27th in the NFL in rush blocking (per ProFootballFocus), which could explain McFadden's 3.8 yards per carry average on the season. Despite this, McFadden could feasibly run for 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns due to matchup alone, which would separate a GPP roster from the masses simply due to ownership levels.
Mark Ingram (GPP only; FD: $6100, DK: $4300) and Travaris Cadet (GPP only; FD: $5300, DK: $3000). The Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and the Saints is full of fantasy options. While the Packers will look to exploit the Saints' defensive weakness (secondary), the Saints will do the same and try to rush the ball against a Green Bay team that is ranked in the bottom 5 of most major defensive categories against the rush. With Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson both already ruled 'out' for the game, the rushing game will be split between Ingram and Cadet, where Ingram should get the carries and Cadet will be heavily targeted in the passing game. Either of these backs is liable to finish the night with 20 fantasy points, so give them strong consideration for your GPP lineups.
Bishop Sankey (GPP only; FD: $5300, DK: $3300). Sankey has been a relative disappointment through the Titans' first seven games, but the shortcomings of this offense start at the QB position; with Jake Locker battling injuries, Charlie Whitehurst has been terrible, leaving rookie LSU standout, Zach Mettenberger to take over the helm this Sunday. Given the increasing number of opportunities that Sankey is getting in the Titans' offense and the change of personnel at the top (Mettenberger), it is entirely possible to think that Sankey could put up decent numbers against a Texans' defense that is in the bottom ten of defenses in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. At a bargain-basement price, Sankey has immense value in tournament format.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Matt Forte (Primarily cash format; FD: $9500, DK: $8800). Forte is in another world right now--he is averaging nearly 9 targets per game in the Bears' passing game and has 16 carries per game, which, when combined, makes him an almost must-play in cash game formats. This Sunday, the Bears travel to New England, who are big favorites, which would ordinarily mean that the value of opposing running backs would be minimized; however, that is the beauty of rostering Forte--he is never out of the mix because the Bears will just throw to him when they are trailing. Due to his high salary, Forte's upside might be somewhat limited, but his floor remains high for those looking for cash game running backs.
Jamaal Charles (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8700, DK: $6700). On DraftKings, Jamaal Charles is close a "must-play" in all formats; as the focal point of the Chiefs' offense, Charles is almost guaranteed 20 points against the overrated St. Louis Rams. Andy Reid has admittedly done a poor job of getting the ball into Charles' hands, particularly in the passing game, but the Rams are ranked 28th in yards allowed to opposing running backs on the season; thus, it would stand to reason that the Chiefs' coaching staff will conscientiously try to ensure that Charles gets increased exposure against this poor rushing defense. Kansas City is one of the bigger favorites on the day, too, with a 26-point projected total, all of which bodes well for Jamaal Charles.
Marshawn Lynch (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6200, DK: $5600). Marshawn Lynch and the Seahawks get a prescription for what ails them this Sunday when they travel to Carolina to face the Panthers' awful defense. Seattle has had back-to-back embarrassing losses to Dallas (at home) and St. Louis (away); in both losses, Lynch looked strong running ball, but he was limited against the Cowboys due to gamescript and he had several key plays, including a TD run, negated due to penalties against the Rams. That should all change when Lynch gets the ball against the Panthers, who are the league's worst run defense, yielding 5.3 yards per carry against opponents; that statistic has equated to 27.0 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, ranking 31st in the NFL. Look for the Seahawks to right their ship on the back of Marshawn Lynch and the Panthers' defense this weekend.
Ben Tate (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7000, DK: $4600). Ben Tate disappointed last week in a plus matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but Tate's Browns fell behind early and the Browns seemed to lose focus on all aspects of their game. Despite that disappointment, the Browns are the 5th best rush blocking offense in all of football and they will line up against the 7th worst defense against the run in the NFL (per ProFootballFocus). As strong favorites, Tate should get plenty of opportunities to carry the ball against this Oakland front seven that is yielding 145+ yards per game on the ground; if he gets 20+ carries, as he has averaged over the past three games, Tate should be in a good spot to reach value again this Sunday.
Jerick McKinnon (Cash & GPP format; FD: $5800, DK: $4400). ProFootballFocus ranks the Tampa Bay Bucs as the worst-rated team against the rush, which should put this week's value play, Jerick McKinnon, on your fantasy radar. Since Adrian Peterson was suspended early in the season, the Vikings have been pitting Matt Asiata and Jerick McKinnon against one another to determine which back gives them the best opportunity to win; it would appear that McKinnon has won that battle, as evidenced by his increasing snap count (and Asiata's decreased playing time). McKinnon is a former option QB at Georgia Southern with freakish athleticism that appears to be translating well in the NFL; in limited action during this rookie season, he is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has caught 12 of his 16 targets in the passing game. At such a low salary, rostering McKinnon in your cash games should allow you to 'spend up' at other positions.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL Week #1 games. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
Received this feedback (below) from Kevin Sica (@Kevinsica1), who obviously watched the RGLive webcast and it paid HUGE dividends for him--see the proof in his tweet!
