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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
The Patriots host the Jets in an AFC North showdown between two teams that appear to be headed in different directions. The Pats have won two in a row after a slow start, while the Jets have now dropped 5 straight games to clock in at 1-5 on the season. The oddsmakers in Vegas have listed the Pats as big (10-point) favorites over the Jets, so there could be some decent fantasy options in this one.
The Jets’ secondary opened the season as one of the worst in the NFL, while their front seven was the most proficient against the run. This dichotomy has forced Jets’ opponents to resort to the pass to score points…and they have been doing exactly that—Jets’ opponents are averaging over 26 points per game on the season. However, those points are now being scored both on the ground and through the air; the Jets' coaching staff has been forced to adjust their defensive schemes, pulling linebackers out of normal assignments to help the weak secondary. This adjustment has improved the Jets’ pass defense, but significantly hurt their run defense; in fact, after not allowing a single running back to surpass 50 yards through four games, they have allowed back-to-back 100-yards rushers over the past two weeks (Branden Oliver and Ronnie Hillman).
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots’ offense has slowly been showing signs of life. Over the past two games, they have scored 80 points, which matches the total number of points they scored over their previous four games. The resurgence of the offense is directly related to the health of star tight end, Rob Gronkowski. In the early weeks of the season, Gronk’s snaps were limited to situational plays and redzone opportunities; over the past two weeks, he has played over 90% of Patriots offensive snaps and the offense is rolling as a result. The interesting thing to watch on Thursday, however, will be New England’s running game—last week, they lost Stevan Ridley for the season due to an ACL tear, so that will make room for Shane Vereen, Brandon Bolden, and possibly even rookie James White. The distribution of carries is subject to interpretation, but it would appear that Vereen will be the biggest beneficiary in the Pats’ backfield.
The Jets’ offense is a complete disaster and should likely be avoided. They have scored 20+ points only once out of six games and the majority of their points scored have come in garbage time during blowouts. With Eric Decker just now starting to look like himself after nursing a hamstring injury for the first six games, Geno Smith has looked far from a serviceable quarterback option. The lone bright spot in the Jets' offense has been running back, Chris Ivory, but his shared role in the backfield with Chris Johnson continues to hamper his fantasy value.
When rosters lock on Thursday night, you could do worse than several players on the Patriots; Rob Gronkowski looks like a viable option particularly in light of the number of targets he has been receiving and the lack of redzone-worthy receivers on the Patriots. Likewise, Tom Brady has thrown for over 600 yards and 6 touchdowns over the past two games and the Jets should not be able to slow him down with their porous secondary. In PPR format, Julian Edelman is an option for your GPP's; as a deep flyer, I might also consider Brandon Bolden (in GPP format), who should see increased carries in the second half of the game if the Pats build an early lead. Lastly, the Patriots’ defense looks like a great play against this Jets’ squad that has almost zero offensive weapons. Just remember that Thursday night players are almost always owned in high percentages, so do not overdo it! Predicted Score: New England 31, NY Jets 14
**NOTE: The forecast in Foxborough for today is an all-day heavy, soaking rain that could potentially affect playing conditions. In fantasy circles, people often overreact to weather forecasts and make roster edits that are unnecessary; in this case, just be aware that field conditions could potentially be affected by the extreme amount of rain expected in Boston on Thursday. Make your final roster decisions accordingly.**
Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:
4-stars: Rob Gronkowski (DK @ $6700, FD @ $7500; Cash & GPP)
3-stars: Tom Brady (DK @ $7600, FD @ $8300; Cash & GPP)
2-stars: Patriots Defense (DK @ $4200, FD @ $5600; Cash & GPP)
1-star: Chris Ivory (DK @ $4300, FD @ $5400; GPP only), Brandon Bolden (DK @ $3400, FD @ $4500; GPP only), Julian Edelman (DK @ $6000, FD @ $7400; GPP only)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Chandler Catanzaro, ARI ($5300 versus Oakland): The rookie out of Clemson has gotten plenty of action because the Cardinals rank dead-last in redzone efficiency in 2014. He is 8 for 8 in extra point attempts and has kicked 14 (out of 14) field goals through Arizona's first five games. This week, the Cards get some relief in the form of the Oakland Raiders' defense, who are yielding 27 points per game on the season, which should set up well for Catanzaro to continue putting up solid points from the kicker position.
Brandon McManus, DEN ($4900 versus San Francisco): A mid-range option at kicker this week is the Broncos' kicker, Brandon McManus. Because of Denver's proficiency in the redzone (3rd in the NFL), McManus has gotten limited field goal action thus far, but the 49ers' defense is competent and will be asked to keep this game close. Look for McManus to get a few extra FG attempts this week at a fair salary.
Shayne Graham, NO ($4600 versus Detroit): The veteran Graham travels to Detroit this weekend after the Saints' bye week to play the Lions. For their part, the Lions' defense has been very solid this season, ranking 1st in passing yards against and 2nd in rushing yards against; that said, Drew Brees and Sean Payton are masters at offensive scheming and the Saints will certainly move the ball this weekend. If Detroit bends, but does not break, Graham could get more FG attempts than normal.
TEAM DEFENSES
Seahawks (versus St. Louis): (FD: $5300, DK: $3200). The Seahawks will be fired up when they arrive in St. Louis after an embarrassing loss to the Dallas Cowboys last week. The Seahawks are a respectable 3-2, despite having played the most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL thus far; their NFC West rival, the Rams, represent the weakest opponent they have seen all year and there is little reason to think that the inexperienced Rams' offense will be able to muster much of anything against this solid defense.
Bills (versus Minnesota): (FD: $5000, DK: $3300). The Buffalo Bills rushing defense is currently the best in the NFL, allowing only 67 yards per game on the ground; they are, however, susceptible to the pass, which makes it convenient that they host the Vikings this weekend. The Vikings are ranked 30th in the NFL in passing yards per game and have scored only 13 total points over the past two games making the Bills an attractive target that should be off most daily gamers' radars.
Redskins (versus Tennessee): (FD: $5000, DK: $2600). There is not much at the very bottom tier of defenses that I would recommend this week, but the Washington Redskins are an option if you have the gumption to roster them. They are 1-5 and have yielded 35 points per game over the past four games, which will scare most people away. That said, those numbers are somewhat skewed due to inopportune turnovers in the redzone and special teams touchdowns from their opponents, neither of which are likely to continue...plus, they are dirt cheap on DraftKings. Against the Titans, who have only topped 20 points once this season and whose QB situation is a complete mess, the Redskins should be in a good spot to recover this weekend.