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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Denver | San Francisco | -6.5 | 28.25 | 50 | ++ | +++ | |
Baltimore | Atlanta | -7 | 28 | 49 | +++ | ++ | |
Green Bay | Carolina | -7 | 28 | 49 | +++ | ++ | |
New England | NY Jets | -10 | 27 | 44 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
Dallas | NY Giants | -6.5 | 27 | 47.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Indianapolis | Cincinnati | -3 | 26.25 | 49.5 | + | + | |
Chicago | Miami | -3.5 | 26.25 | 49 | + | + | |
Washington | Tennessee | -5.5 | 25.75 | 46 | + | + | |
Detroit | New Orleans | -3 | 25.75 | 48.5 | + | ||
Cleveland | Jacksonville | -5.5 | 25.25 | 45 | + | + | |
Seattle | St. Louis | -7 | 25 | 43 | + | ++ | |
San Diego | Kansas City | -4 | 24.5 | 45 | |||
Buffalo | Minnesota | -5.5 | 24.25 | 43 | ++ | ||
Pittsburgh | Houston | -3.5 | 24 | 44.5 | |||
Arizona | Oakland | -3.5 | 23.75 | 44 | + | ||
Cincinnati | Indianapolis | 3 | 23.25 | 49.5 | |||
Miami | Chicago | 3.5 | 22.75 | 49 | |||
New Orleans | Detroit | 3 | 22.75 | 48.5 | |||
San Francisco | Denver | 6.5 | 21.75 | 50 | ++ | ||
Atlanta | Baltimore | 7 | 21 | 49 | ++ | ||
Carolina | Green Bay | 7 | 21 | 49 | ++ | ||
Kansas City | San Diego | 4 | 20.5 | 45 | |||
Houston | Pittsburgh | 3.5 | 20.5 | 44.5 | |||
NY Giants | Dallas | 6.5 | 20.5 | 47.5 | + | ||
Tennessee | Washington | 5.5 | 20.25 | 46 | |||
Oakland | Arizona | 3.5 | 20.25 | 44 | |||
Jacksonville | Cleveland | 5.5 | 19.75 | 45 | |||
Minnesota | Buffalo | 5.5 | 18.75 | 43 | |||
St. Louis | Seattle | 7 | 18 | 43 | + | ||
NY Jets | New England | 10 | 17 | 44 | + |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Denver (versus San Francisco): Denver is projected by oddsmakers to score 4+ touchdowns again this week, but they will have to do it against a Niners' defense that is 2nd against the pass and 5th against the run--does that scare you away from Peyton and company? Nah...me neither. Peyton needs just 2 passing touchdowns to tie the record for most TD's thrown in NFL history (currently held by Brett Favre) and he will be doing it in Primetime on national television. Expect 300 yards and 3 touchdowns (again)...because his name is not Eli.
RUNNING GAME
- Baltimore (versus Atlanta): Vegas projects the Ravens to score 28 points and win by a touchdown. Against the Falcons' defense, that is a reasonable outcome, particularly when one takes into account that the Falcons are giving up 140+ rushing yards per game this year; Atlanta is also ranked dead-last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB's, which could make Justin Forsett and (possibly) Bernard Pierce attractive plays at their daily salaries.
- Green Bay (versus Carolina): The Packers are also slated to score 4 touchdowns and win by a touchdown, which could mean that the gamescript favors Eddie Lacy and the running game this week. There is reason to consider Lacy, as the Panthers are giving up 5.5 yards per carry to opposing RB's, which is worst in the entire league.
- New England (versus NY Jets): Losing Stevan Ridley for the season leaves question marks regarding his successor(s) in New England, but we should get a good look on Thursday night when the Patriots host the Jets. The Pats are 10-point favorites, which should mean that they could lean heavily on the running game to work the clock, if the game plays out as Vegas predicts. The rainy weather is also supposed to favor the ground game in this one.
TEAM DEFENSE
- New England (versus NY Jets): The Jets' offense has scored more than 20 points only once this season and are in need of an NFL quarterback--the Geno Smith Experiment is wearing thin on Jets' fans and they are so desparate that they are asking for Michael Vick. Oddsmakers are predicting the Jets to score less than 20 points once again, so rostering the Patriots' defense makes a lot of sense.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Baltimore (versus Atlanta): With the Ravens slated to score 28 points and the Falcons' 29th ranked passing defense, it would seem that Joe Flacco might be in store for another big week; fire up the Smith brothers (Torrey and Steve).
- Green Bay (versus Carolina): Aaron Rodgers is arguably having the best season of his career (15 TD/1 INT) and Vegas projects good things for his offense this weekend. With the Panthers ranked 26th against QB's and 24th against WR's in fantasy points allowed, Rodgers, Jordy, Cobb, and Davante Adams are all in play.
- New England (versus NY Jets): The Patriots are projected to score 27 points and are without Stevan Ridley entering their Week #7 game; if the running game cannot get rolling, expect Tom Brady to look for Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and even Shane Vereen to move the ball.
- Dallas (versus NY Giants): The Cowboys have become a run-first offense and have a 5-1 record to show for that change in philosophy. With a 27-point projection out of Vegas, Tony Romo will definitely be involved, but the question is whether or not DeMarco Murray will continue to get 25 carries per game?
- San Francisco (versus Denver): The Niners will be playing from behind in Denver and the onus will be on Colin Kaepernick to find open receivers in an effort to keep pace with the Broncos' offense; moreover, the Broncos are ranked 1st against the rush, which only should only augment the Niners' passing game.
- Atlanta (versus Baltimore): The Falcons travel to Baltimore and will be looking to recover from their diappointing home loss to the Bears last week. Vegas, however, thinks that Atlanta is going to have a tough time of it and will be chasing points in the second half; if that happens, expect Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to get some action on Sunday.
- Carolina (versus Green Bay): Carolina is another team that Vegas believes will be playing from behind on Sunday; if Green Bay jumps out to an early lead, it is possible that Cam Newton will try to keep things rolling after his 35-point performance last week against the Bengals.
RUNNING GAME
- Denver (versus San Francisco): San Francisco is stout against the run, but the Broncos are 7-point favorites and slated to score 28 points, so Ronnie Hillman may see some time on Sunday; if you believe the Broncos will build an early lead, Hillman could be in store for back-to-back 100-yard performances.
- Dallas (versus NY Giants): DeMarco Murray will go for seven consecutive 100-yard games against the Giants on Sunday in a game where Vegas predicts the Cowboys will be playing with a lead; with the holes that the Cowboys' offensive line is generating, there is no reason to believe that Murray cannot get #7.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Seattle (versus St. Louis): Seattle is an underrated team due to their tough schedule thus far, but they will look to recover this weekend against NFC West rivals, the St. Louis Rams. Vegas thinks the Rams will be limited to 20 points, so Seattle is a nice play for daily and season-long formats.
- Buffalo (versus Minnesota): Through 6 games, the Bills still have not given up a single rushing touchdown; their demise, however, has been their passing defense, which is ranked 26th in the NFL (270 yards per game and 11 total touchdowns). Fortunately for the Bills, they have home field advantage for this one and the Vikings' passing game is dreadful, which should minimize the Bills' defensive weakness; oddsmakers agree, as they project the Vikings to score only 18 points.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Indianapolis (versus Cincinnati): Andrew Luck has thrown for 300 yards in 5 out of 6 games and he gets a matchup against the same Bengals' team that just yielded 35 fantasy points to Cam Newton last week. This week, they travel home and Vegas thinks they will be in a competitive game, so Luck looks to be a solid play once again.
- Chicago (versus Miami): The Bears' offense is basically a passing offense because of the number of passes that Matt Forte catches out of the backfield. As slight favorites in a game where they are projected to score 26 points, Jay Cutler and the Bears' receivers should all be in a good spot to put up plus numbers against a Miami defense that has given up 10 passing touchdowns thus far.
- NY Giants (versus Dallas): Eli Manning snakebit us all last weekend by throwing up a goose egg against one of the worse pass defenses in the league. This week, he faces off against red-hot NFC East rival, the Dallas Cowboys; while the Cowboys' defense has looked good, they are susceptible to very bad games from time to time. Vegas believes the Giants are going to be playing from behind, yet should still score 3 touchdowns, so Eli and company are still in play.
- St. Louis (versus Seattle): If the gamescript in St. Louis plays out as Vegas projects on Sunday, Austin Davis may be forced to try to find Jared Cook and Brian Quick against the Seahawks' defense. The Rams are not likely to score more than 20 points, but the ones that they do score will likely come via the pass since they will be playing from behind most of the game.
- NY Jets (versus New England): Geno Smith has looked like anything but an NFL quarterback over the past 18 months, but if New England is to follow Vegas' gamescript on Thursday night, Smith will be passing to keep pace. Assuming the Patriots' offense continues to roll, guys like Jace Amaro and Eric Decker could be long-shot GPP plays in daily games.
RUNNING GAME
- Indianapolis (versus Cincinnati): The Bengals' rush defense is 29th in the league in total yards allowed and yards per carry, so the Colts' running backs could be in play this weekend. Despite outplaying Trent Richardson in nearly every aspect of the Colts' offense, Ahmad Bradshaw's upside continues to be limited due to him splitting time with Richardson, so expectations for either back should be tempered.
- Chicago (versus Miami): The Dolphins' run defense is legitimate, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry and 3 rushing touchdowns on the season. That said, if anybody can move the ball on the ground against the Dolphins, it will be Matt Forte, who is also heavily involved in the passing game and is fresh off a 2-touchdown performance last week. With 26 points to be scored, Forte is a candidate to get a piece of the action.
- Washington (versus Tennessee): The Redskins have not been able to run the ball a lot this year because they have fallen behind in most of their games; however, when they play with a lead or are in competitive matchups, Alfred Morris benefits. Against the Titans, there is no reason to think that Morris should not get 16+ carries for 80+ yards; with the 26 points that Vegas projects will be scored by the Redskins, those types of numbers will likely include a touchdown.
- Detroit (versus New Orleans): The Detroit Lions will have their full complement of running backs on the field this Sunday, after Reggie Bush missed last week with an ankle injury. With nearly 26 projected points to score, expect to see Joique Bell and Reggie Bush stealing some of the excessive action that has been going Golden Tate's direction since Calvin Johnson was injured.
- Cleveland (versus Jacksonville): Ben Tate is getting the lion's share of carries in the Browns' backfield despite solid performances by Crowell and West in Tate's absence. The Browns' opponents, the Jacksonville Jags, are 30th in the NFL in points allowed to opposing RB's, so Tate appears to be in store for a nice day, particularly when Vegas sees the Browns scoring 25 points.
- Seattle (versus St. Louis): Marshawn Lynch was all but taken out of the game last week when the Cowboys built an early lead against the Seahawks; he finished with a disappointing 10 carries for 61 yards. This week, it is highly unlikely that Seattle trails early, which should bode well for Lynch's carries and overall output in a game where Seattle is slated to score 25 points.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Washington (versus Tennessee): The Redskins rushing defense has been solid, but opponents have done well passing against them; fortunately for the Redskins, the Titans have almost no passing game due to injuries and ineptitude at the QB position. After barely squeaking by the Jaguars last week (16-14), Vegas does not think much of the Titans' chance this week, as evidenced by their 20-point projection, which could represent good value for the Redskins' defense in daily circles.
- Cleveland (versus Jacksonville): The Browns' defense is ranked in the bottom 10 in the NFL for both rushing and passing yards allowed per game. Despite this, Vegas still believes the Browns can hold the Jags to less than 20 points this weekend in Jacksonville; if that happens, the Browns will almost surely meet value for their depressed salary.
- Arizona (versus Oakland): Until last week, the Oakland Raiders had not scored more than 14 points in a game all season; last week, they did manage to score 28 points against the Chargers, so they could be moving in a better direction. That said, Vegas thinks that Oakland will score less than three touchdowns, which could make the Cardinals' defense an option this weekend, especially in GPP format, where the Cards will be less than 3% owned.