For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Derek Carr (GPP only; FD: $6800, DK: $5800). Derek Carr had the best game of his young career last week against the San Diego Chargers, throwing for almost 300 yards and 4 touchdowns. This week, he gets a better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who are yielding 319 yards per game through the air, which ranks dead-last in the NFL; further supporting Carr's case is the fact that the Cardinals are ranked 3rd against the rush, which means that the passing game may be the Raiders' only option to move the ball. Where Carr and the Raiders are concerned, they finally have multiple healthy receiving options and will have home-field advantage to keep this game competitive.
Matt Ryan (Primarily GPP; FD: $8500, DK: $6500). Matt Ryan and the Falcons killed a lot of DFS rosters last week when they stumbled to less than 300 yards of total offense against the Chicago Bears in the Georgia Dome. This week, they will look for redemption when they travel to Baltimore to meet the overrated Ravens' defense; the Ravens are ranked 8th in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB's, but they are 28th in passing yards allowed (277 yards per game). This paradox is due to an unsustainable red zone efficiency by the Ravens' defense; they are allowing a touchdown on only 35% of opportunities, which is, by far, best in the NFL. To provide perspective, last year's NFL champs, the Seattle Seahawks, had a ~ 40% redzone efficiency during their Super Bowl campaign; we can all agree that this year's Ravens are not last year's Seahawks. Expect some negative regression in touchdowns allowed in the near future.
Ben Roethlisberger (Primarily GPP; FD: $7500, DK: $5700). The Steelers are an enigmatic team right now because they seem to move the ball effectively, but they just cannot accumulate points on the scoreboard. Despite ranking 6th in the NFL in yards per game on offense (397 YPG), they only score 20.7 points per game, which is 24th in the NFL. This week, Big Ben gets his chance to right the ship when the Steelers host the Texans, who, Andrew Luck notwithstanding, have given up big passing yardage to a number of shoddy QB's this season. With Todd Haley on the hotseat and Mike Tomlin not far behind, all hands will be on deck to get this offense rolling again.
Jay Cutler (Primarily GPP; FD: $8700, DK: $7900). The Bears receivers finally appear to be 100% healthy and their offense is clicking on all cylinders. Cutler gets the Dolphins this Sunday and while the numbers do not heavily weigh in the Bears' favor, Vegas believes that the Bears will have no problems scoring; with the diversity of receiving options that Cutler possesses (Marshall, Jeffery, Bennett, and Forte), he could legitimately throw for 300 yards and 3+ touchdowns in this matchup.
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,000, DK: $9700). Luck is the poster-child of cash game quarterbacks. He has thrown for 300 yards in 5 out of 6 games; in the single game that he did not throw for 300 yards, Luck threw for 3 touchdowns. Because their backfield is amongst the bottom of the league at 3.7 yards per carry, the Colts appear to be leaning on Luck to win games...and it's working. Against the Bengals' defense, which has given up 80 points over the past two weeks, Luck would appear to be in line for another solid Sunday.
Peyton Manning (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,000, DK: $9000). On paper, this matchup looks less than promising, but we know two things: 1) Ronnie Hillman is not going to win the game for the Broncos against the Niners' 5th ranked rushing defense, and 2) Peyton Manning does not care what you think. Peyton needs two passing touchdowns to tie Brett Favre's all-time NFL record and there is not bigger stage than a prime time game to shoot for that record. Vegas projects the Broncos to be the highest-scoring team this week and those points will almost assuredly come on the shoulders of Manning.
Aaron Rodgers (Cash and GPP format; FD: $9700, DK: $8800). The last of the high-priced cash game QB recommendations this week is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers is enjoying his best ever start (15 TD's and 1 interception), despite stuttering early against three very tough defenses (Seattle, NY Jets, and Detroit); since those initial three games, the Packers are averaging 36 points per game and seem to be improving every week. With three solid wide-receivers and a game against the reeling Carolina Panthers, who have given up 4-consecutive 30+ point games to their opponents, Rodgers could be in store for a huge Sunday.
Colin Kaeparnick (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7800, DK: $6500). The sole moderately-priced cash game QB this week is Colin Kaeparnick. Kaeparnick's salary on both major sites is somewhat depressed despite his promising matchup this week; Vegas projects the 49ers at approximately 21 points, which is not exciting, but there are several factors that play to Kaeparnick's favor. First, the Broncos are sneaky good against the run, allowing less than 60 yards per game on the ground, which should limit the amount of carries that Gore and Hyde receives; next, if the oddsmakers are correct (+6.5 points; 21-point team total), the Niners will have no choice but to pass because they will be playing from behind much of the evening. With a reasonable price tag and the ability to accumulate yardage on his legs alone, Kaeparnick is a solid option this week.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Andre Johnson (Primarily GPP; FD: $7000, DK: $5200). Andre Johnson has had a quiet season thus far, but is due for a breakout game in the near future. He is averaging 9 targets per game, which is nearly double DeAndre Hopkins, the next highest-targeted receiver. Against the Steelers, Johnson should get enough exposure to Cortez Allen to make him a solid GPP selection; Allen has struggled in pass coverage this season against far worse QB-WR combinations than Fitzpatrick-Johnson.
Pierre Garcon (Primarily GPP; FD: $7000, DK: $5000) With Tampa Bay on a bye week, Blidi Wreh-Wilson becomes the NFL's de facto worst coverage cornerback this weekend. Garcon will get the assignment against Wilson, which should increase the number of looks that he receives from Kurt Cousins; recently, DeSean Jackson has gotten Cousins' attention, but Garcon has had some tremendous games with Cousins, so do not discount Garcon's value in GPP contests due to recent performances.
Michael Crabtree (Primarily GPP; FD: $6700, DK: $4900) and Anquan Boldin (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $4500). As discussed above, the Denver Broncos' rushing defense is solid; likewise, the Broncos generally jump to early leads in their games. Thus, opponents often find themselves passing early and often against the Broncos' defense, which would support the decision to roster either Crabtree or Boldin in your GPP lineups this weekend, particularly on DraftKings, where receptions are worth a full point each.
Brandon Tate (GPP only; FD: $5900, DK: $3600). Last week in this space, Mohamed Sanu was recommended as a GPP play and he had a tremendous day, scoring ~ 30 fantasy points for a bargain salary; this week, however, Sanu's salary has jumped to the point of absurdity, which means that we will pivot to Brandon Tate for GPP contests. After last week, expect to see Sanu blanketed by All-Pro cornerback Vontae Davis, which means that Tate will be covered by Greg Toler, who has had troubles in coverage this season. At the reduced price tag, Tate represents a 'Grade A' GPP play because he will be less than 3% owned.
Davante Adams (Primarily GPP; FD: $5200, DK: $3900). Aaron Rodgers is starting a love affair with Davante Adams and you will want to be a part of that tryst to take advantage of Adams' ridiculously-low salary this weekend. Adams is playing nearly 80% of Green Bay's snaps now and is seeing a similar number of targets as Randall Cobb over the past few weeks. In a prime matchup against the horrible Panthers' secondary, Adams is a GPP play with significant upside.
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Jordy Nelson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8900, DK: $9200). Jordy has been targeted more than 10 times in two-thirds of his games this season and is averaging 11.3 targets per game; this week, he will face-off against Antoine Cason, who grades out as a bottom-twenty cornerback in pass coverage in the NFL. With the Packers slated to score 4 touchdowns (Vegas' numbers), Nelson is almost assured to catch one of those touchdowns and tack on another 100 yards and 6-8 receptions, all of which makes him a great cash game play in Week #7.
Antonio Brown (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8700, DK: $7900). Another model of consistency in the passing game in Antonio Brown. While the Steelers have struggled to score touchdowns this season, Brown continues to get open, attract targets, and move the ball in the offense. With 10+ receptions in five consecutive weeks, Brown is the mainstay of the Steelers' offense. This week, agains the Texans, the target-monster Brown should see another 10-12 targets, pulling in 8+ catches for ~ 100 yards and a touchdown. Roster him with confidence for your cash games.
Brandon Marshall (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7700, DK: $6300). When healthy, Brandon Marshall will make a weekly appearance in this column. He is highly-targeted and is a beast in the redzone, which makes him a low-variance, high-upside wide receiver. Against the Dolphins, his former team, expect Marshall to come out fired up to make a statement; add in the fact that Marshall's health concerns appear to be behind him and he is a fantastic play for the cash game format.
Golden Tate (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6700, DK: $5900). Since Calvin Johnson went down to injury, the Lions' passing game has been primarily about Golden Tate. In fact, Tate has 22 catches over the past three games...the next highest receiver in the offense is Eric Ebron with 7 receptions; thus, Tate has become "MiniTron" in Detroit. Against the Saints, Tate should see soft coverage, regardless of which Saint covers him on Sunday because none of the Saints' cornerbacks has impressed in 2014. At his salary, you should embrace rostering him for your cash game lineups.
James Jones (Cash only; FD: $5500, DK: $5100). Just two short years ago, James Jones led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 14; after falling behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb in the depth chart last year, Jones was traded in the off-season to the Raiders where he has quickly become a forgotten entity. Despite intermittant QB play, Jones is still leading the Raiders in targets per game (7.0) and he has an excellent matchup this weekend against the Cardinals, who are bleeding passing yardage allowed at a clip of 309 yards per game. At a $5000 salary, Jones offers a decent floor, while allowing you to spend up at other positions, where value is more limited (i.e., QB this week).
