For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Julius Thomas (Primarily GPP; FD: $8600, DK: $6900). Julius Thomas has 24 receptions all season and 7 have gone for touchdowns, which is an absurd number of TD's considering his general lack of targets in the Broncos' offense. At his current inflated salary, Thomas' upside is limited, but the likelihood for an impending letdown is high. Nevertheless, he is Peyton's favorite redzone target on a weekend where Peyton will be shooting for an NFL touchdown record, so he keeps his slot in the GPP section of this piece...for now.
Travis Kelce (Primarily GPP format; FD: $5800, DK: $4800). Travis Kelce is the next big thing at the tight end position and will become an even bigger fantasy factor if/when Andy Reid decides to play him more than 60% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps. That said, his salary is fair and he is gaining the trust of Alex Smith, which means that he should continue to get increased targets each week. The matchup against the Chargers looks less-than-optimal on paper (Chargers are yielding a league-low 34.4 yards/game to opposing tight ends), but San Diego has not played against a tight end near Kelce's caliber all season.
Dwayne Allen (Primarily GPP; FD: $5700, DK: $3700). With Andrew Luck throwing the ball 40+ times per game, all Indy receivers have fantasy value, but Allen has an advantage because he is the biggest redzone target of them all. This week, Allen gets a nice matchup against the Bengals, who are giving up an NFL-high 8.0 receptions per game to opposing tight ends; with the potential high-scoring nature of this game, Allen could finish with solid fantasy stats at a very fair price point.
Larry Donnell (GPP only; FD: $5500, DK: $3500). Larry Donnell has now displayed both his floor (0 points) and his ceiling (30 points). The Giants looked terrible last week in a dream matchup against the Eagles, so it is difficult to suggest that they will improve against the 5-1 Cowboys in Dallas this weekend. However, the Cowboys are in an ideal spot for a letdown after their big win in Seattle and they rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends, so Donnell is a classic boom-or-bust GPP play.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Jordan Cameron (Cash and GPP format; FD: $6100, DK: $4600). Jordan Cameron got his first touchdown of the year last week against the Steelers and now seems to be primed to pick up where he left off last year. Cameron is, by far, the best receiving option on the Browns and he should continue to see increased targets now that he is healthy. This week, he gets the Jaguars, who are in the bottom ten in the NFL in guarding opposing tight ends, so there is no reason to think Cameron will slow down; at a fair salary, he offers a decent floor and solid upside.
Jordan Reed (Cash and GPP format; FD: $5400, DK: $5000). Reed displayed no symptoms of his hamstring issues in his return to the field last week, finishing with 8 receptions for 92 yards (on 11 targets). This week, he gets the Tennessee Titans, who have given up 5 touchdowns to the tight end position in 6 games this year; expect him to see another 8-10 targets this week, which should help him accumulate enough yardarge to pay off his fair salary on the two major daily sites.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Eddie Lacy (Primarily GPP; FD: $7700, DK: $4700). Do not give up on Eddie Lacy just yet--he has faced some very solid rush defenses through the Packers' first six games (Seattle, NY Jets, Detroit, and Miami). In his only two games against average rush defenses (Chicago & Minnesota), Lacy rushed 30 times for 153 yards and 3 touchdowns; this week, he gets a Carolina rush defense that is yielding 5.5 yards per carry to opposing running backs (worst in the NFL). Everybody else will be rostering Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson, but the smarter GPP play is Lacy in a prime matchup when he will have low ownership.
Branden Oliver (Primarily GPP; FD: $7400, DK: $6300) Oliver has certainly looked the part in his first two games as a starter in the Chargers' offense. He will look to keep things rolling against the Chiefs, who are giving up 118 yards per game to opposing running backs. The Chargers like pounding the ball when they have to means to do so (think 2013 Ryan Mathews) and Oliver has gotten 23 and 30 touches in the past two games; if Oliver continues to get that kind of opportunity, a double-touchdown day is in his future.
Alfred Morris (GPP only; FD: $7200, DK: $4700). Morris will be less than 3% owned across the industry tomorrow and that could be a mistake. To this point, Morris has been underused, but looking at his game logs a bit closer, he has only gotten limited carries in games where the Redskins trailed (most of them); when the Redskins were in a position to win, however, he has gotten 20+ carries. On Sunday, Morris should see significantly increased action in a game that projects the Redskins winning for the first time in over a month; he should get your serious consideration for GPP lineups, particularly on DraftKings, where his salary is too low.
Andre Williams (GPP only; FD: $6300, DK: $4400). Williams disappointed in his first career start against the Eagles last week, but both the gamescript and his offensive line worked against him. This week, Williams gets a Dallas Cowboys' front seven that is allowing 5.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs (2nd worst in the NFL); if he cannot muster anything this week, we can write off Williams for the remainder of the 2014 season. He is intriguing for GPP purposes because everybody will be afraid to roster him after last week's performance and, consequently, will be on very few tournament teams.
Marshawn Lynch (Primarily GPP; FD: $8800, DK: $7100). Lynch is another running back who disappointed last week, but it was certainly not his fault--he finished with 61 yards on 10 carries against the Cowboys, good enough for 6.1 yards per carry. Seahawks' offensive coordinator, Darrell Bevell, neglected to put the ball into Lynch's hands for much of that game and has since admitted the error of his ways; Bevell has publicly committed to getting back to basics this week and feeding the ball to Lynch against the Rams. If Lynch does see 20+ carries, he could very well finish the day with 100+ yards and 2 touchdowns; he will be low-owned because of his recent poor performance and higher salary, which makes him an ideal GPP play.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
DeMarco Murray (Cash only; FD: $9400, DK: $9600). Murray now has six consecutive 100-yard games and is the definitive focal point of the Cowboys' offense; the consistency which he has displayed this season makes him a perfect cash game play. The Giants are middle-of-the-road against the rush, so the plus matchup is not necessarily there for Murray, but if he continues to get 30 touches each game and huge holes behind that fabulous Cowboys' offensive line, there is no reason to think he will slow down this week. At his asking price, however, he does need to score a touchdown, which would be the only concern about rostering him in your cash games.
Jamaal Charles (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8500, DK: $6700). Jamaal Charles returns from a bye week (where Andy Reid is 13-2) and would seem to be 100% healthy for the first time in nearly a month. Charles will face a San Diego defense that, on paper, has not been kind to opposing running backs (71.8 yards/game), but they have been far from dominant (4.7 yards per carry) and only two teams give up more receptions to running backs than San Diego. Given Charles' involvement in both phases of the Chiefs' offense, he would appear to be in a prime spot for a great day. He is a particular bargain on DraftKings, where his salary is just too low for his high floor.
Justin Forsett (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6200, DK: $5600). Another running back whose salary is too low is Justin Forsett. At age 29, Forsett is running like a man five years younger, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and catching every pass thrown his way. This week, Forsett and the Ravens get to feast on the Atlanta Falcons' defensive front that is allowing 128 yards and 1.8 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs (31st in NFL). The only drawback to rostering Forsett is that he will give away carries to Bernard Pierce, but Forsett's salary is affordable enough to allow for split carries; plus, Forsett will garner all receptions out of the backfield, which is a big bonus on a full PPR site like DraftKings. At near $6K salary, he is a solid choice for cash and GPP rosters.
Andre Ellington (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7100, DK: $6500). Ellington has yet to break the 100-rushing yard mark on the season, but that will change on Sunday. Ellington gets a plus-plus matchup against the worst rushing defense in the NFL, the Oakland Raiders; the Raiders are giving up 134 yards per game and another 27 yards per game through the air to opposing running backs. Given that Ellington is heavily-involved in both phases of the Cardinals' offense and that they should be winning this game handily in the second half, he makes a great play for cash games at a reasonable salary. Roster him with confidence.
Ben Tate (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7300, DK: $5300). If you want to save salary on your cash game rosters, you might consider Ben Tate, given his matchup against the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. The Browns' offensive line is amongst the best in football and they should have no problem opening holes against the Jags' defensive line. Since returning from injury, Tate has received 47 carries over two games, rushing for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns; if he continues to get that kind of opportunity on Sunday, it is reasonable to think that he could have another 100-yard rushing day with a touchdown (or two?).
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL Week #1 games. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
