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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
Thursday Night Football gives the public their first competitive game in many weeks in the form of an AFC South showndown between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans. Both teams enter this game with 3-2 records, but neither team has been able to beat a legitimate opponent through their first 5 games. The Colts 2 losses come against Denver and Philadelphia, whose combined record is 7-2; their 3 wins have come against Jacksonville, Tennessee, and Baltimore, whose combined record is 4-11. Meanwhile, the Texans' wins have come against Washington, Oakland, and Buffalo, whose combined record is 4-11; they lost both of their games to NFC East opponents, the Dallas Cowboys (4-1) and the NY Giants (3-2). Collectively, this game should answer some questions regarding which team will still be gunning for a playoff spot in December.
For their part, the Colts' passing game has been impressive, ranking 1st in the NFL with 322 passing yards per game and 14 touchdowns, but those touchdowns have gone to everybody not named Reggie Wayne or T.Y. Hilton--those wide receivers have 61 combined receptions on nearly 100 collective targets for over 750 yards receiving, but only a single touchdown between them. Meanwhile, the remaining 13 touchdowns have been pulled in by Ahmad Bradshaw (x4), Dwayne Allen (x4), Coby Fleener (x2), Hakeem Nicks (x2), and Jack Doyle (x1)...all of which is baffling. Logic would suggest that some regression, in the form of touchdowns, is in store for Wayne and Hilton; of those two, Wayne would appear to be the better choice because the Texans are ranked 23rd against WR1 and 4th against WR2 entering this game. While Ahmad Bradshaw's snap counts have been trending upward, his salary for daily games is still somewhat prohibitive due to his inordinate number of touchdowns per touch (Trent Richardson remains a fantasy non-factor).
The Texans, on the other hand, have had moments of fantasy excellence through their first 5 games. Arian Foster trails only DeMarco Murray in rushing yards per game at 101.0, despite nursing a hamstring injury for much of the season; likewise, DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson have combined for nearly 700 receiving yards in just a few games. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been serviceable, albeit unspectacular, as the starting QB in Bill O'Brien's offense.
The overriding question entering this game is, "Which 3-2 team is for real?" Both teams have average defenses and none of the offensive skill players have a dramatically advantageous matchup; thus, there is little to like from a daily perspective. Vegas projects this as a close game with Indy edging out the Texans by a 24-21 margin...I agree that it should be close, but do not see any single matchup that appears overly attractive; thus, the options for daily format are limited. Of those options, Arian Foster could be interesting going up against a Colts' defense that is 31st in the NFL in fantasy points allowed in 2014; however, his salary is inflated after his 2-touchdown performance against the Cowboys last week, so temper your expectations for seeing Foster reaching value at that inflated salary. Overall, there is little predictive value in this game and the only edge to be gained appears to be fading it in Thursday daily contests. Predicted Score: Houston 24, Indianapolis 21.
Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:
4-stars: None
3-stars: None
2-stars: None
1-star: Arian Foster (DK @ $8100, FD @ $8900; Cash & GPP), Reggie Wayne (DK @ $5900, FD @ $7000; Cash & GPP)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Cody Parkey, PHI ($5300 versus NY Giants): Despite having a high-flying offense, the Eagles still rank 29th in the NFL in red zone efficiency (37.5%) and are forced to kick field goals when they are unable to score touchdowns in the red zone...while that may be bad for Chip Kelly and company, it pays off for Cody Parkey, who is averaging 10.4 points per game this season. Given Vegas' total for this game, Parkey should be a solid selection at the kicker position.
Shaun Suisham, PIT ($4800 versus Cleveland): Pittsburgh is another team with poor red zone efficiency despite solid starts from Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. This week, they get a worse-than-advertised Cleveland Browns' defense in a tight game; if the game plays out as Vegas projects, field goals will be in play for all 4 quarters (unlike a blowout game), so Suisham could be in store for a nice day in Cleveland.
Robbie Gould, CHI ($4600 versus Atlanta): Robbie Gould will be the highest-owned kicker on FanDuel this week due to his low salary and involvement in a high-scoring game. His average points-scored is only 7 on the season, but given the variance at the position, Gould could reasonably score 10+ points in the Georgia Dome on Sunday.
TEAM DEFENSES
Chargers (versus Oakland): (FD: $5600, DK: $3400). Last week, the Chargers were recommended in this space and they rewarded your judgment with a shutout against the Jets; this week, the Chargers gets a similar matchup against the Raiders, a team that has not managed to score more than 2 touchdowns in any game this season. As long as the Chargers stay focused, there is little reason to believe they cannot hold the Raiders to a similar score this weekend.
Bengals (versus Carolina): (FD: $5700, DK: $3700). The Bengals return home after an embarrassing loss to the Patriots in Gillette Stadium in prime time. Prior to that loss, the Bengals were only averaging 11 points against per game; they should be able to achieve similar results against the Panthers, who are currently rolling out their 4th string RB, alongside a hobbled Cam Newton, and a lackluster receiving corps. In a game where Vegas has the opponent scoring less than 20 points, the Bengals represent a good selection for daily format.
Titans (versus Jacksonville): (FD: $5100, DK: $2900). Tennessee will start Sunday with something to prove after blowing a 25-point lead to the lowly Cleveland Browns in Week #5; expect them to come out fired up against a poor Jacksonville team that is averaging less than 2 touchdowns per game. The 0-5 Jaguars are starting a rookie QB and have no appreciable offensive weapons to exploit against the Titans, which makes the Titans a solid selection at a moderate salary for daily games this Sunday.
