Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Denver | NY Jets | -9 | 28.25 | 47.5 | +++ | ++ | + |
Atlanta | Chicago | -3 | 28.25 | 53.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Seattle | Dallas | -8 | 27.75 | 47.5 | +++ | ++ | + |
Philadelphia | NY Giants | -2.5 | 26.25 | 50 | + | + | |
Green Bay | Miami | -3 | 26 | 49 | + | + | |
Cincinnati | Carolina | -7 | 25.75 | 44.5 | ++ | + | ++ |
Chicago | Atlanta | 3 | 25.25 | 53.5 | + | + | |
San Diego | Oakland | -7 | 25 | 43 | + | ++ | +++ |
Tennessee | Jacksonville | -6 | 25 | 44 | + | + | |
Arizona | Washington | -3.5 | 25 | 46.5 | |||
Indianapolis | Houston | -3 | 24.5 | 46 | |||
Cleveland | Pittsburgh | -2 | 24.5 | 47 | |||
New England | Buffalo | -3 | 24 | 45 | |||
NY Giants | Philadelphia | 2.5 | 23.75 | 50 | |||
San Francisco | St. Louis | -3 | 23.25 | 43.5 | |||
Baltimore | Tampa Bay | -3 | 23 | 43 | |||
Miami | Green Bay | 3 | 23 | 49 | |||
Detroit | Minnesota | -1.5 | 22.75 | 44 | |||
Pittsburgh | Cleveland | 2 | 22.5 | 47 | |||
Washington | Arizona | 3.5 | 21.5 | 46.5 | |||
Houston | Indianapolis | 3 | 21.5 | 46 | |||
Minnesota | Detroit | 1.5 | 21.25 | 44 | |||
Buffalo | New England | 3 | 21 | 45 | |||
St. Louis | San Francisco | 3 | 20.25 | 43.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Baltimore | 3 | 20 | 43 | |||
Dallas | Seattle | 8 | 19.75 | 47.5 | + | ||
NY Jets | Denver | 9 | 19.25 | 47.5 | + | ||
Jacksonville | Tennessee | 6 | 19 | 44 | + | ||
Carolina | Cincinnati | 7 | 18.75 | 44.5 | + | ||
Oakland | San Diego | 7 | 18 | 43 | + |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Atlanta (versus Chicago): Atlanta is projected to score 4 touchdowns against the Chicago Bears at home in the Georgia Dome; the Falcons have only played 2 games at home, but have scored 93 total points in those efforts. Since their running backs are mediocre, at best, it would seem that Head Coach Mike Smith will call on Matty Ryan to throw 40 times to keep pace with the Bears.
RUNNING GAME
- Denver (versus NY Jets): This 'recommendation' is only here to stay consistent with the odds and the theme of the Vegas Value Chart. As 9-point favorites slated to score 4+ touchdowns, it would stand to reason that the Broncos might run the ball to protect a lead in the second half of this game; however, the Jets are giving up only 3.3 yards per carry, are ranked 6th in the NFL against the rush, and the Broncos starting RB situation is unclear after Montee Ball's injury will keep him out for a month. This is why the Vegas Value Chart is only a guide, not a final decision-maker.
- Seattle (versus Dallas): The Cowboys are giving up a massive 5.2 yards per carry against opposing running backs; furthermore, Seattle is a big favorite at home this weekend and they are projected to score 28 points. This looks like a great spot for Marshawn Lynch to march all over that overrated Cowboys' defense.
TEAM DEFENSE
- San Diego (versus Oakland): The Chargers' schedule thus far has been ridiculously easy; this makes their third straight appearance as a 3-star defense in the Vegas Value Chart. Two weeks ago, they gave up only 14 points to the Jaguars, last week they shutout the Jets, and this week they play the Oakland Raiders, who are last in the NFL in total offense and average only 12.8 points per game.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Denver (versus NY Jets): Peyton Manning threw for nearly 500 yards and 4 TD's last week and made it look easy. Their opponent, the Jets are extremely tough against the run, so look for Peyton to score all the Broncos' points through the air since they likely will not have much success on the ground with backup running backs starting in place of Montee Ball.
- Seattle (versus Dallas): Russel Wilson is entirely capable of carving through an opposing defense, if asked; last week, he completed 75% of his passes for 200 yards and 2 touchdowns and he ran for another 120+ yards and a touchdown. Las Vegas projects the Seahawks to score 28 points against this Dallas defense and Percy Harvin is still looking for his first touchdown of the year--could be a perfect storm for Seattle's passing game this weekend.
- San Diego (versus Oakland): Philip Rivers has thrown for 12 touchdowns through 5 games because the Chargers' ground game has been so dreadful in 2014. While Brandon Oliver looked good last week, do not expect him to get 20 carries again this week; the Chargers have looked great spreading the ball around to multiple receivers and they would be ill-advised to change a game plan that has led them to a 4-1 record thus far.
RUNNING GAME
- Atlanta (versus Chicago): The Falcons are projected to score the highest number of points by a team this weekend; that means that all facets of the offense are in play for daily games, particularly because the Bears should be able to keep pace. The trick is choosing the running back who gets the most opportunity because it's a four-headed monster in Atlanta right now; last week, out of 72 total snaps, Steven Jackson led the way with 26 (36%), followed by Jacquizz Rodgers with 19 (26%), then Devonta Freeman with 16 (22%), and finally Antone Smith with 11 (15%). Despite the attractive matchup, there may not be enough upside to roster of of these players for daily games.
- Cincinnati (versus Carolina): The Bengals will look to right their ship after getting blasted by the Patriots on Sunday night. They return home, where they are undefeated on the season and they will be 7-point favorites against the Carolina Panthers, who are a on-again, off-again team at this juncture. The Bengals will attempt to reestablish the run with Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill to regain the momentum they lost in New England.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Cincinnati (versus Carolina): Until their disaster against the Patriots in prime time last week, the Bengals had not given up more than 16 points to an opponent all year. They return home to host the Panthers, who are on their 4th string running back, are starting an injured QB, and have only one legitimate wide receiver; Vegas has the Panthers scoring less than 20 points, so the Bengals look like a safe play for daily games.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Philadelphia (versus NY Giants): In a game that is projected to score 50 points, expect Chip Kelly to involve all facets of his offense. The Giants are ranked 25th in the NFL against the pass, so there is no reason to think that Nick Foles would not get his share of fantasy output, particularly when LeSean McCoy has struggled so mightily thus far.
- Green Bay (versus Miami): The Packers' offense looks to be clicking after getting Eddie Lacy back on track last Thursday night. With Vegas projecting them to score 26 points this weekend, Aaron Rodgers is always in play with his receiving corps. With the Dolphins ranking 24th in the NFL against the pass, Green Bay could potentially do whatever they want this weekend.
- Cincinnati (versus Carolina): Andy Dalton and the Bengals look to bounce back after their trouncing at the hands of the Patriots in prime time on Sunday night. Luckily, they get the Carolina Panthers this week, who are ranked 5th-worst in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed through 5 weeks (x10); if Marvin Jones finally returns this week, look for the Red Rocket to benefit immensely.
- Chicago (versus Atlanta): Despite their strength at the key positions, the Bears' passing game is ranked in the middle tiers through their first 5 games. With Marshall and Jeffery nursing injuries, Jay Cutler has leaned more heavily on Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte. This game is projected to be the game with the most fantasy output and the Bears' wide receivers are slowly getting healthy...those two factors make the Bears' passing game an attractive daily option this week.
- Dallas (versus Seattle): Tony Romo is the prototypical GPP play this weekend agains the Seahawks. Most will be scared away from playing Romo, but he is entirely capable of accumulating 400 yards and 3 touchdowns against any defense...or 120 yards and 3 interceptions. Pick your poison.
- NY Jets (versus Denver): In GPP format, the Jets' passing game could be sneaky because they will be playing from behind after about 3 minutes of their game against the Broncos. After being shutout against the Chargers last week, almost nobody will roster Geno Smith (or Michael Vick) in this game...but at their salaries, it would not require extensive garbage time to reach value and allow a DFS gamer to stock up at other positions.
- Jacksonville (versus Tennessee): Tennessee is tied for 26th in the NFL in passing touchdowns allowed through 5 games and the Jags are slated to be playing from behind, as supported by the 6-point spread. If Blake Bortles is able to continue his development against the Titans, he might represent good value in GPP format.
- Carolina (versus Cincinnati): By virtue of the 7-point spread, the Panthers are slated to play from behind against the Bengals. Given that Carolina is down to their 4-string running back, it is reasonable to expect Cam Newton to try to carry the load on his shoulders; rookie Kelvin Benjamin will look to rebound from a disappointing week against the Bears in Week #5.
- Oakland (versus San Diego): Oakland will look to rebound against the Chargers this weekend in their 2nd home game of the season. Their opponent, the San Diego Chargers are riding high after besting the Seahawks and three subsequent poor teams (Buffalo, Jacksonville, NY Jets). The Chargers, however, could be in an ideal letdown situation when they visit Oakland, playing a weak team off a bye week, and looking forward to a Week #7 matchup against a better AFC West rival, the Kansas City Chiefs.
RUNNING GAME
- Philadelphia (versus NY Giants): The Eagles' running game has been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2014 NFL season thus far; that said, the Eagles are 4-1 and know that they cannot be competitive in the playoffs with a one-dimensional team. Chip Kelly will figure out how to set LeSean McCoy straight and he will have a productive game in the near future...bank on it.
- Green Bay (versus Miami): Eddie Lacy busted out of his slump in Week #5 with a 25+ point performance against the Vikings; he looked solid in preseason, but the Packers' poor run blocking hampered him through the first 4 games. As 3-point favorites against the Dolphins in a game where the Packers are slated to score nearly 4 touchdowns, Lacy could be in store for superlative back-to-back performances.
- Chicago (versus Atlanta): Matt Forte busted out of his funk last week with a 170-combined yard total against the Panthers; this week, he gets the Falcons, who have given up a whopping 10-touchdowns on the season. In a game that Vegas projects as having 50+ points scored between the two teams, the Bears' running game looks to be in a good position to put up some fantasy goodness.
- San Diego (versus Oakland): Branden Oliver was a breath of fresh air for the Chargers' running game last week, after seeing Ryan Mathews and Donald Brown average less than 3-yards per carry entering Week #5. Against the Jets' solid defensive front, Oliver scored nearly 30-fantasy points; if that is a legitimate sign of Oliver's skill set, he could muster a repeat performance agains the Raiders this weekend.
- Tennessee (versus Jacksonville): Ken Whisenhunt stated that Bishop Sankey was in store for additional carries in Week #5 because his footwork and general performance merited the increase in work; that said, Sankey saw his least amount of carries since Week #2. As 6-point favorites against the Jags, the Titans' ground game offers some solid fantasy upside, but that upside will be entirely contingent upon selecting the correct Titan running back. Furthermore, the Titans' starting quarterback situation is also subjective...proceed with caution.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Denver (versus NY Jets): The Jets are coming off a 0-point performance against the Chargers in Week #5 and questions are rampant about the starting QB in New York. With Eric Decker's health still in question, the Jets' offense is in complete disarray and there is no reason to believe they will mount much of an effort against the Broncos this week.
- Seattle (versus Dallas): Seattle's defense is always in play at home. They held Peyton Manning and the Broncos to 8-points in the biggest game of the year just 8 months ago, so it is not unreasonable to think that Tony Romo could choke in a matchup of 1-loss teams.
- Tennessee (versus Jacksonville): The 0-5 Jags have not scored more than 17 points all season and they travel to Nashville to play a pissed-off Titans team that blew a 25-point lead last week against the Browns. Vegas has the the Jaguars scoring less than 20 points once again and the Titans could represent a good flyer for daily format.