For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Julius Thomas (Primarily GPP; FD: $8200, DK: $6700). Orange Julius was listed in this column as a cash game play last week and he came through with a 2-touchdown performance; however, because he now leads the league in touchdowns, his salary is near the same level as elite wide receivers who routinely see 10 targets per game. He is averaging only 6 targets per game and has 7 touchdowns on 20 receptions, a 35% TD rate, which is not sustainable over the long haul. For these reasons, leave Thomas off your cash game lineups this week.
Antonio Gates (Primarily GPP format; FD: $6200, DK: $6000). Gates is another tight end who is probably due for a little regression--he has 21 receptions and 5 of those catches have gone for touchdowns. He is certainly a go-to guy in the redzone, but it is almost impossible for him to continue with a 25% touchdown rate. He does, however, have a good matchup against the Oakland Raiders, who are ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to the tight end position this season.
Larry Donnell (Primarily GPP; FD: $6000, DK: $3500). Donnell, like the 2 previous tight ends (Thomas & Gates), was due for some regression last week after starting the season on fire with 25 receptions and 4 touchdowns...and he got it; Donnell finished last week's game with 0 catches for 0 yards on a single target. Because of that ominous stat line, his salary dropped significantly on DraftKings and he could be a sneaky GPP play in a prime time game that should have plenty of scoring.
Luke Wilson (GPP only; FD: $5000, DK: $3000). With Zach Miller out again this weekend, Luke Wilson will be the primary tight end target against a Dallas defense that is giving up 15.3 fantasy points per game to the position (nearly twice the league average). This is the type of game where the Cowboys could implode and you would be the only guy in your GPP with Wilson, should he finish with a decent stat line.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7600, DK: $5800). With Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce on bye weeks, there is not much available for cash game tight ends this week. Gronk is my top cash game tight end because he seems to finally be healthy, as evidenced by him playing in a season-high number of snaps last week against the Bengals. In that game, Gronk saw 11 targets, caught 6 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown against a Cincinnati defense that was supposedly solid. This week, the Patriots travel to Buffalo to matchup against a Bills' defense that can stop the run, but are weak against the pass. With his redzone prowess, Rob Gronkowski should be high on your list for cash games this weekend.
Martellus Bennett (Cash and GPP format; FD: $5900, DK: $5500). Bennett makes his first appearance in the cash game section of Tips & Picks because he has displayed consistent production through the Bears' first five games; furthermore, the matchup and projected score for the Bears-Falcons game makes Bennett seem like a fairly safe play for cash games if you cannot afford Gronkowski.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
LeSean McCoy (Primarily GPP; FD: $8000, DK: $6000). LeSean McCoy is, without a doubt, the most disappointing player in fantasy football at this point in the season; he was a top draft pick in season-long format and he has burned nearly every daily gamer at least once this year. For those reasons, he makes a sneaky GPP selection against the Giants this week. The Eagles fully recognize that their playoff hopes rest squarely on the shoulders (legs?) of McCoy, so they will continue to tweak the game plan to make him productive again. This weekend's game against the Giants provides a lot of upside because the Giants do not cover pass-catching RB's well and McCoy is due for some positive regression to the mean...all of which could dictate a big fantasy game for a reasonable salary when he will have low-ownership.
Fred Jackson (Primarily GPP; FD: $6800, DK: $5000) Fred Jackson is one of those running backs that makes a perfect GPP play because people hate to roster backs who are in committees. That said, Jackson is actually receiving more snaps than C.J. Spiller over the past few games, he catches more passes, and he gets goalline carries. His opponent, the New England Patriots have been mostly effective against the rush thus far, but a closer look shows that their success has come against lesser-talented backs (Asiata & McFadden); when the Pats faced the Chiefs (Jamaal Charles & Knile Davis) a few weeks ago, they were slashed for 200+ yards on the ground. If Jackson can find his way into the endzone on Sunday, he could put a daily gamer in a good spot to win a GPP.
Ben Tate (Primarily GPP; FD: $6800, DK: $5500). The Cleveland Browns are grading out as the 4th best run blocking offensive line in the league and their running backs have had success because of it; neither Ben Tate, nor Isaiah Crowell or Terrence West are star-caliber running backs, but they are 4th in the NFL in yards per game on the ground (143.5). After missing several weeks due to a knee injury, Tate returned last week and got the majority of carries in the Browns backfield, running 22 times for 124 yards against the Tennessee Titans; thus, it looks like the job is Tate's once again. In Week #1, the Browns ran for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns (on 28 carries) against this same Steelers' defensive unit that they play this week, which would suggest that they could do it again.
Ronnie Hillman (GPP only; FD: $5900, DK: $3000). Ronnie Hillman will get his chance to capitalize on Montee Ball's injury over the next few weeks. His first matchup, however, is a tough one against the NY Jets' front seven, who yielded their first 100-yard rusher of the season last week against the Chargers. Hillman is, however, on the Broncos and everybody knows that Peyton has made average running backs look tremendous from time to time; with the projected team total for the Broncos and his reasonable salary, Hillman could potentially find his way onto your GPP lineups to capitalize on his situation.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Marshawn Lynch (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9200, DK: $8600). The Seahawks are leading the league in rushing with 5.4 yards per rushing attempt and over 167 total rushing yards per game; their opponent, the Dallas Cowboys are 31st in yards per attempt (5.2) and will have a tough time stopping Beast Mode in Seattle this Sunday. The Seahawks are 8-point favorites against the Cowboys, which should dictate that Lynch gets the ball 20+ times; if he does, there is virtually no way he cannot finish the day with a 100+ yards, a touchdown, and multiple receptions for additional yards...all of which should help him reach value at his high price tag.
Matt Forte (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9000, DK: $8800). Forte will be the highest-owned, top-end RB in cash games across both major fantasy sites this weekend. First, he is playing in the game with the highest Vegas total. Second, he is averaging nearly 24 touches per game, five of which have come in the form of receptions, which garner additional fantasy points. Next, he faces the Falcons' defense, who are ranked 28th in the NFL against the rush, giving up nearly 150 yards per game, in addition to 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. None of this takes into account Matt Forte's fantastic skill set--roster him with confidence.
Le'Veon Bell (Cash only; FD: $8600, DK: $7200). Bells gets his second face-off against the Cleveland Browns in Week #6; in their first matchup in their season opener, Le'Veon Bell went for 109 yards rushing, 88 yards receiving, and a touchdown. Since then, the Browns have not shown much ability to stop the run, as evidenced by their 150+ yards allowed per game on the ground; it is worth noting that those statistics were generated by lackluster running backs named Mark Ingram, Lorenzo Taliaferro, and Shonn Greene, which suggests that the Browns' rush defense may be even worse than their numbers currently suggest. If you need a bit of salary relief from Lynch or Forte, Bell is a reasonable substitution for your cash games.
Andre Williams (Cash only; FD: $6300, DK: $5400). Former Boston College standout Andre Williams makes his first appearance in Tips & Picks in his rookie season in a plus matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles' defense. Now that Rashad Jennings is out with a knee injury, Williams should get ~ 20 carries in a game that looks to be chock-full of fantasy goodness. His salary is probably too low for his expected fantasy output, so rostering him should afford you the ability to stock up with talent at other positions.
Branden Oliver (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6200, DK: $5500). The San Diego Chargers are 2 points away from being undefeated despite losing three different running backs to injury; Danny Woodhead is out for the season and Ryan Mathews/Donald Brown are both out for at least another week or two, which bodes well for Branden Oliver's workload on Sunday. Oliver got his first opportunity to shine last week against the fearsome Jets' front seven and he certainly did with 182 all-purpose yards and 2 touchdowns. This week, he should enjoy his matchup against the Oakland Raiders, who are ranked 31st in the NFL against the run. Expect more of the same from Oliver this week; he will be the most highly-owned running back across the industry for good reason.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL Week #1 games. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
