Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
New Orleans | Tampa Bay | -11 | 29.5 | 48 | +++ | ++ | + |
Green Bay | Minnesota | -10 | 29 | 48 | +++ | ++ | + |
Denver | Arizona | -7.5 | 28.25 | 49 | ++ | +++ | |
Philadelphia | St. Louis | -7 | 27.25 | 47.5 | ++ | +++ | |
NY Giants | Atlanta | -4.5 | 27 | 49.5 | ++ | ++ | |
Pittsburgh | Jacksonville | -6.5 | 26.25 | 46 | ++ | + | + |
Seattle | Washington | -7.5 | 26.25 | 45 | ++ | + | ++ |
Detroit | Buffalo | -7.5 | 25.75 | 44 | + | + | ++ |
Indianapolis | Baltimore | -3.5 | 25.5 | 47.5 | |||
San Francisco | Kansas City | -6.5 | 25.5 | 44.5 | + | ||
San Diego | NY Jets | -7 | 25.25 | 43.5 | + | +++ | |
Dallas | Houston | -4 | 25 | 46 | + | ||
Carolina | Chicago | -2.5 | 24 | 45.5 | |||
Cincinnati | New England | -1.5 | 23.75 | 46 | |||
Atlanta | NY Giants | 4.5 | 22.5 | 49.5 | + | ||
New England | Cincinnati | 1.5 | 22.25 | 46 | |||
Cleveland | Tennessee | -3 | 22 | 41 | + | ||
Baltimore | Indianapolis | 3.5 | 22 | 47.5 | |||
Chicago | Carolina | 2.5 | 21.5 | 45.5 | |||
Houston | Dallas | 4 | 21 | 46 | + | ||
Arizona | Denver | 7.5 | 20.75 | 49 | ++ | ||
St. Louis | Philadelphia | 7 | 20.25 | 47.5 | ++ | ||
Jacksonville | Pittsburgh | 6.5 | 19.75 | 46 | + | ||
Kansas City | San Francisco | 6.5 | 19 | 44.5 | |||
Minnesota | Green Bay | 10 | 19 | 48 | + | ||
Tennessee | Cleveland | 3 | 19 | 41 | |||
Washington | Seattle | 7.5 | 18.75 | 45 | |||
Tampa Bay | New Orleans | 11 | 18.5 | 48 | ++ | ||
Buffalo | Detroit | 7.5 | 18.25 | 44 | |||
NY Jets | San Diego | 7 | 18.25 | 43.5 |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Denver (versus Arizona): Peyton and the Broncos come off a week of rest and host the Arizona Cardinals this week. Vegas thinks Denver should score 4+ touchdowns and since the Cards are actually fairly solid against the run (4th in NFL), expect Peyton to go through the air to get those points.
- Philadelphia (versus St. Louis): The Eagles look to bounce back after a tough loss on the West Coast to the 49ers last week. The oddsmakers project Philadelphia to score 4 touchdowns and win by a margin of 7 points; given the struggles of the offensive line and LeSean McCoy, it stands to reason that the majority of those points will come through the air.
RUNNING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Tampa Bay): The Saints fell behind quickly against the Cowboys last Sunday night and were forced to get away from their running game despite Khiry Robinson averaging 11 yards per carry in the game. Against the Buccaneers, it is tough to envision a scenario where the Saints have a similar gamescript; they should go early and often to Robinson, particularly as 11-point favorites at home.
- Green Bay (versus Minnesota): Eddie Lacy and the Packers' ground game disappointed yet again last week despite a solid matchup against the Bears. As 10-point favorites against the Vikings at home, this game could represent an ideal opportunity for Eddie Lacy to get back on track as a top running back moving forward.
TEAM DEFENSE
- San Diego (versus NY Jets): The Chargers get back-to-back cake-walk opponents in Jacksonville and the NY Jets. Last week, San Diego held the Jags to 14 points; they should be in a prime position to do the same this week against the poor Jets offense at home.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Tampa Bay): Tampa Bay is giving up 270+ yards per game through the air, which is good enough for 28th in the NFL; meanwhile, Drew Brees returns home, where he routinely puts up 300-yard passing games. Vegas projects the Saints to score 30 points, which puts the Saints' passing game firmly on the map for fantasy purposes.
- Green Bay (versus Minnesota): In light of Eddie Lacy's struggles to start the season, Aaron Rodgers has shouldered the load of the Packers' offense and managed 9 touchdowns through the air. On a short week against the Vikings, Vegas has the Packers slated to score nearly 30 points and there is no reason to believe that Rodgers will not target Jordy and Cobb often until they build a sizeable lead.
- NY Giants (versus Atlanta): The Falcons are 30th in the NFL in passing defense; last week, we saw what Eli Manning and the Giants can do to a poor defense when they destroyed the Redskins in prime time on Thursday night. The Giants will look to carry their momentum into Week #5 with extra rest as big favorites, which bodes well for Eli and Larry Donnell once again.
- Arizona (versus Denver): By virtue of their powerful offense, the Broncos can afford to give up a lot of points...and they do. The Cardinals travel to Denver this week to face the Broncos' defense, ranked 31st in the league against the pass; if the undefeated Cardinals want to stay undefeated, Drew Stanton will have to trade blows with Peyton in this potentially high-scoring affair.
- St. Louis (versus Philadelphia): Austin Davis and the Rams put up over 300 yards through the air against the Cowboys in Week #3 and face a similar, if not worse, defense in the Eagles this week. After having an additional week to prepare, the Rams will likely be chasing points against the Eagles high-flying offense, so expect Davis to throw often against this weak defense.
- Tampa Bay (versus New Orleans): The return of Mike Glennon has benefitted the Bucs' offense, as they went into Pittsburgh last week and pulled off a big upset after a dismal performance in Atlanta the week prior. Against the Saints, Glennon will have to play from behind much of the game, so expect minimal involvement from Doug Martin and lots of passes to Vincent Jackson and Louis Murphy.
RUNNING GAME
- Denver (versus Arizona): Montee Ball's matchup against the Cardinals is not stellar, particularly in light of Arizona's #4 ranking against the rush in the NFL; that said, Denver is an 8-point favorite in a game where they are projected to score 4+ touchdowns, so expect to see Ball heavily involved in this game.
- Philadelphia (versus St. Louis): On paper, it is difficult to recommend LeSean McCoy because of how bad the Eagles' offensive line has been; in reality, the Eagles have to get McCoy involved in their offense if they expect to win games in January. As big favorites against the Rams, McCoy will get another chance to hit the 100-yard plateau.
- NY Giants (versus Atlanta): Rashad Jennings looks rejuvenated now that he is out of the Black Holes that are Jacksonville and Oakland. This week, he gets to play against the Falcons, who are giving up > 150 yards per game (and 9 TD's) on the ground; as 5-point favorites, Jennings should see plenty of second-half carries against this porous defense.
- Pittsburgh (versus Jacksonville): The Steelers enter their Week #5 game after a disappointing loss to Tampa Bay just a week ago; Jacksonville, however, is a train wreck of a team, who cannot possibly shutdown Le'Veon Bell and the powerful Steelers' running game. As 7-point favorites, Bell should see a lot of action against this defense.
- Seattle (versus Washington): Seattle comes off their bye week to travel to the East Coast to play the Redskins in a game where the Seahawks are heavy favorites (7.5-points). If the Seahawks play this game according to Vegas' script, expect to see a heavy dose of Beast Mode Lynch action in the second half.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Seattle (versus Washington): Seattle's defense. Washington's offense. Washington is projected to score 18 points. No further information necessary.
- Detroit (versus Buffalo): The Lions' defense has been one of the bigger surprises of team defenses this year and they get a Buffalo offense that is starting Kyle Orton this week: Advantage Detroit.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Pittsburgh (versus Jacksonville): Jacksonville is dead-last against the pass in the NFL and Ben Roethlisberger looked spectacular against the Bucs (in a losing effort) last weekend. Big Ben and Antonio Brown should have a field day against this defense in a game where the Steelers are projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns.
- Seattle (versus Washington): The Redskins gave up 4 passing TD's and 300 yards to Eli Manning in their last game; Russel Wilson and his receivers far outclass Eli and Company at this point in his career. Thus, it only stands to reason that Seattle's passing game has value in a game where the oddsmakers predict that they will score almost 4 touchdowns.
- Detroit (versus Buffalo): Anytime Matthew Stafford is playing, he is liable to throw for 300 yards. This week, he faces a bottom 10 defense against the pass in the form of the Buffalo Bills; furthermore, the Bills are actually strong against the run (3rd in the NFL), which should force Stafford's hand--expect him to throw often in this game.
- Atlanta (versus NY Giants): The Atlanta Falcons can score points--they're averaging 32 points per game. Vegas expects them to score 23 points, they should be playing from behind, and the strength of the offense is through Matt Ryan, not Stephen Jackson.
- Houston (versus Dallas): Dallas looked fabulous against the Saints last weekend...but is their defense that good? Probably not. The Cowboys' offense, however, is the real deal and that will continue to push the opposing team to score points; Ryan Fitzpatrick will be looking for Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins early and often.
- Jacksonville (versus Pittsburgh): Recommending any part of the Jacksonville offense is a tough sell; however, Blake Bortles has shown glimpses of excellence and the Jags will continue to play from behind all year. Bortles will throw often and while his upside is limited, his low salary generally makes rostering him a viable option.
- Minnesota (versus Green Bay): The starting QB for the Vikings on Thursday night is currently unknown due to Teddy Bridgewater's ankle injury. If Green Bay jumps to an early lead, as Vegas predicts, the Vikings' QB and his receivers have some value in a game where they should be forced to play catch often.
RUNNING GAME
- Detroit (versus Buffalo): Detroit is slated to win their game against Buffalo by 7.5 points, which sets up well for Reggie Bush and Joique Bell, who have been relatively quiet thus far in 2014. The Bills do have a solid rush defense, so temper expectations for Bush and Bell despite the Vegas line
- San Francisco (versus Kansas City): The Niners are touchdown favorites over the Chiefs at home this weekend. Both teams are riding high after big victories in their Week #4 matchups, but Vegas projects San Francisco to score nearly 4 touchdowns while maintaining a 7-point margin of victory; if that happens, expect Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde to see their fair share of action in the second half.
- San Diego (versus NY Jets): I left this 'selection' in the column for two reasons: 1) to stay consistent with Vegas-based value plays, and 2) to exemplify why Vegas-based values are only a guide for more in-depth analysis. The Chargers should win this game easily, but do not expect it to come on the legs of Donald Brown, who averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry against the Jaguars last week; the Jets' running defense is solid and San Diego will throw far more often than they will rush the ball, regardless of the scoring differential. In other words, do not play any part of the Chargers' running game.
- Dallas (versus Houston): The Cowboys' offensive line were generating holes large enough for large diesel trucks last Sunday night; with three former 1st round picks on the offensive line, this should not be surprising. The beneficiary is DeMarco Murray, who is having a career year through the early part of this season; against a Texans' front seven that is giving up 5.0 yards per carry, you should expect more of the same for the Dallas ground game.
TEAM DEFENSE
- New Orleans (versus Tampa Bay): Tampa Bay is projected to score 18 points in New Orleans during an NFC South rivalry matchup; if there is ever a time to roster the Saints' defense, it will be this weekend.
- Green Bay (versus Minnesota): If Teddy Bridgewater is unable to play on Thursday, the Packers' defense becomes a viable punt play because of how inept the Vikings' offense is without Adrian Peterson and a true NFL quarterback. Vegas agrees, as evidenced by their projection of 19 points for the Vikings against an otherwise bad Packers' defense.
- Pittsburgh (versus Jacksonville): Pittsburgh is another bad defense that might be worth taking a flyer on this weekend. Against the Jags' terrible offense, the Steelers cannot possibly be throttled, right? The oddsmakers think Jacksonville will score right around 20 points, so it might be worth a risk.
- Cleveland (versus Tennessee): With Jake Locker's health in question and Charlie Whitehurst waiting in the wings, Cleveland's defense becomes a potential punt play this weekend, too. With few offensive weapons in Tennessee, there is little reason to be afraid of the Titans' offensive prowess.