For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Primarily GPP; FD: $7600, DK: $6600). Ordinarily, I try to provide readers of this column a rationale for why they should consider a player for their rosters; that rationale is normally backed by statistics, prior performances, and/or target trends. With the recommendation of Gronkowski as a GPP play this weekend, I offer none of those. In fact, the Bengals are ranked #1 against TE's in fantasy points scored, the Patriots look terrible, and Gronk only saw 3 targets last week against the Chiefs. Despite all of that, Gronk is entirely capable of scoring 3 TD's in any given game and because he will be owned in a small percentage of rosters, he makes a great GPP play.
Larry Donnell (Primarily GPP; FD: $6200, DK: $5700). Donnell could be the surprise of the fantasy football season thus far with 25 receptions, 236 yards, and 4 touchdowns over his first four games. After his 3-TD performance against the Redskins last Thursday night, Donnell's salary has taken a significant jump into the upper tier of tight ends; he still has significant upside, but it is difficult to envision him continuing on his torrid pace for the remainder of the season. At his $6K salary on both sites, he is no longer the bargain he was earlier in the season.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (GPP only; FD: $4700, DK: $3000). ASJ is a house of a man at 6'6" and 260 pounds, making him a prime target for redzone opportunities. He was injured in Week #1 and missed the following two weeks before coming back last week to play 71 of 71 snaps in the Bucs' offense. ASJ saw 7 targets and caught 4 passes for 44 yards in his return last week; this week, he gets a sweet matchup against the Saints, who are ranked 28th against the pass and have given up 7 passing touchdowns through their first four games. With Mike Evans already ruled 'out' for Week #5, look for ASJ to continue to see an increased role in this Bucs' offense. [*ASJ was limited in practice on Friday, so be sure he starts on Sunday before inserting him into your GPP lineups.]
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Julius Thomas (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8000, DK: $6900). Julius Thomas does not always make a cash game play on my weekly cheat sheet because he tends to be inconsistent due to the number of weapons in that Denver passing game. He makes the cut this week because of his matchup against the Arizona Cardinals; the Cards have consistently been amongst the worst 5 defenses in the NFL at defending the tight end position over the past few years. This week, they get an impossible matchup against the league's best quarterback coming off a bye week and a tight end, in Julius Thomas, who has scored a touchdown in every game this year.
Jimmy Graham (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7900, DK: $7600). Jimmy Graham has had a quiet, but productive, season thus far; he has 32 receptions for 340 yards and 3 touchdowns through four games; if his name were not Jimmy Graham, most fantasy owners would be ecstatic with those numbers from a tight end. However, he is Jimmy Graham and we tend to expect 25-fantasy point performances from him every week. He gets a plus matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week, who are in the bottom 5 against the pass and 26th in the NFL against opposing tight ends. Graham offers a high floor with significant upside, if you can afford his salary.
Travis Kelce (Cash format only; FD: $5300, DK: $3000). If you cannot afford Jimmy Graham's salary, you can punt with Travis Kelce, who is near minimum salary on both sites. Kelce looked tremdendous on Monday Night Football against the Patriots, where he caught 8 passes for 93 yards and a touchdown; it was the second consecutive week where Kelce scored a touchdown. Because he played on Monday night, his salary was unaffected (or dropped), so he appears to be a solid selection if you want to save salary at the tight end position. Kelce's upside this week is likely limited, however, because he gets a tough matchup against Patrick Willis and the stingy 49'er defense; he is still, however, a solid cash play due to his ridiculously-low salary.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Marshawn Lynch (Primarily GPP; FD: $9100, DK: $7200). Marshawn Lynch is still the bell cow running back in Seattle and is asked to carry the load whenever the Seahawks are leading an opponent. Lynch's matchup this week is not as strong as it might look on first glance; Washington has actually been fairly stout against the run, but their passing defense is significantly lacking talent. That said, the gamescript suggests that Seattle will lead this game, which would dictate that Lynch gets 20+ carries to protect the lead. Lynch is the type of back who can wear a defense down if he gets that number of carries, so it would not be mind-blowing to see Beast Mode finish the day with 100+ yards and 2 TD's despite the strength of the Redskins' rushing defenders.
LeSean McCoy (Primarily GPP; FD: $8300, DK: $7800) You would have to live under a bridge to not know how much LeSean McCoy has struggled in 2014. McCoy is averaging 2.7 yards per carry and only scored a single touchdown on the year. Much of his failure can be blamed on the offensive line that has been missing 3 starters; this week, one of those starters (Lane Johnson) returns from a suspension to restore some legitimate blocking on that offensive line. The Eagles' opponent, the St. Louis Rams, could also help McCoy's cause, as they are ranked 29th in the NFL against the rush and are giving up 5.1 yards per carry. If McCoy cannot get anything going against this Rams' defense, you will not see him in this column until he shows significant improvement. At nearly $8K on both sites, McCoy will be < 5% owned, which makes him an ideal GPP play due to his upside in this potent offense.
Bishop Sankey (GPP only; FD: $5900, DK: $4700). Ken Whisenhunt gave Sankey his seal of approval earlier this week when he said that Sankey would see increased snaps in Week #5 due to his improved footwork. Sankey is already seeing the highest number of snaps of all the Titans running backs and his matchup against the Browns is promising because the Browns are 28th against the run, giving up > 150 yards per game and over 5 yards per carry this year. If Sankey continues to see increased usage, he should be considered for GPP tournaments, particularly in light of his modest salary.
Darrin Reaves (Primarily GPP; FD: $5000, DK: $3000). The Carolina Panthers backfield is an absolute disaster; DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert have all been designated as 'out' for this Sunday's game against the Bears. Darrin Reaves, an undrafted free agent from Alabama-Birmingham, is the beneficiary of those injuries, in that he should see most of the carries from the Carolina backfield on Sunday. Carolina's offensive line, however, is ranked worst in the NFL in run blocking, so Reaves' upside is somewhat limited; that said, Reaves is close to min salary on both sites, so the risk is also minimal.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
DeMarco Murray (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9000, DK: $7500). The Cowboys have drafted offensive linemen in 3 of the last 4 drafts and that investment is beginning to pay off; in fact, the Cowboys' offensive line is currently ranked #1 in the NFL in rush blocking. As a result of the tremendous holes that the offensive line is generating, Murray is amongst the league-leaders in a slew of rushing categories including total yards rushing, yards per carry, and touchdowns. Perhaps most impressive is that Murray is performing even when efficient blocking is not there--he is 2nd to only Chris Ivory in yards after contact (3.3 yards/attempt). This week, this Cowboys unit gets to see the Houston Texans defensive line, which is grading out as a bottom-5 defense against the rush, allowing 5.0 yards per carry; Murray should be at the top of your list for cash game list this weekend's game slate.
Giovanni Bernard (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8800, DK: $6700). Gio gets an attractive matchup against the Patriots on Sunday. The Pats are yielded 127 rushing yards per game, despite only seeing a single legitimate backfield all season--that backfield was combo of Jamaal Charles/Knile Davis last week, where the Pats yielded 207 rushing yards and a TD plus another 30 yards and 2 TD's. Meanwhile, Gio Bernard is rested, coming off a bye week, and will be involved in both phases of the Bengals' running attack; in a game that Vegas has projected as being a close matchup, expect to see a heavy dose of Bernard on Sunday night.
Le'Veon Bell (Cash format; FD: $8600, DK: $7300). Le'Veon Bell and the Steelers travel to Jacksonville this weekend looking to rebound from their upset loss to Tampa Bay last weekend; the winless Jags are the perfect opponent for such a mission, as they are near the bottom of nearly every statistical category in the NFL. Jacksonville is in the bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed, which has translated to a bottom 5 ranking in fantasy points allowed to the RB position. Enter Le'Veon Bell, who continues to impress onlookers and is 2nd in the league in rushing yards; Bell should see plenty of action in a game where Pittsburgh is expected to win by a touchdown, so he makes a decent cash game option.
Rashad Jennings (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7200, DK: $5500). On paper, Rashad Jennings may have the best rushing matchup this weekend; he faces a terrible Atlanta Falcons defense, who are giving up 154 rushing yards per game (28th in NFL) and have allowed a league-worst 9 touchdowns on the ground. Jennings has been consistent in his initial efforts with the Giants, averaging 20 carries per game and ~ 15 fantasy points per game, which would be sufficient to pay off his modest salary on both major DFS sites.
Khiry Robinson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $4900, DK: $3000). With Mark Ingram still injured, Khiry Robinson still continues to fill the featured back role in the Saints' offense. Last week, in a blowout loss to the Cowboys, Robinson's carries were limited, but he still finished the night with 8 carries for 87 yards and several targets in the passing game. The gamescript should be entirely different this week, as the Saints play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; as 11-point favorites, the Saints should be able to run often in the second half of this game and Robinson will continue to get any goalline opportunities. At near min salary on both sites, Khiry offers a fairly reasonable floor with decent upside and makes a very nice cash game play for those who are looking to save salary for other positions.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL Week #1 games. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
