Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
The Redskins return home to host the NY Giants after a heart-wrenching 37-34 loss to the Eagles last week. Despite the loss, the Redskins have demonstrated that they are more than capable of moving the ball with Kirk Cousins at the helm since losing Robert Griffin III to an ankle injury in Week #2. Since Cousins has taken over, Washington has scored 75 points compared to just 6 points against the Texans on the NFL opening weekend; the question is whether the dichotomy of their output is due to the quality of their defensive opponents (Jacksonville & Philadelphia) or their own quarterback’s ability to thrive in this system? Certainly, Cousins is a better fit for Jay Gruden’s more traditional offense than Griffin, but can he continue to put up 30+ points every weekend?
Meanwhile, the Giants escaped an 0-3 start last week by besting the Houston Texans 30-17; although Eli Manning finally finished a game without an interception, the victory was probably more attributable to the Giants’ defense securing 3 takeaways themselves. The Giants’ defense has been middling thus far, yielding 365 yards per game, ranking 22nd against the pass and 14th against the run. Going up against the Redskins this week, the Giants will need to get pressure on Cousins, who has had pristine pass protection over the past 2 weeks (his 19% of dropbacks under pressure is 2nd only to Cincinnati's Andy Dalton); Jason Paul-Pierre and Mathias Kiwanuka will look to do exactly that, as they both rank in the top 20 in the NFL in generating QB pressure.
Back to the Redskins. Pierre Garcon is the biggest beneficiary of Cousins taking over the starting QB spot, as Garcon has been targeted 11, 18, 10, 4, and 16 times in the five games that Cousins has started for the Redskins. Niles Paul has also seen 20 (total) targets in the two games he has played with Cousins at QB. DeSean Jackson and Alfred Morris are the 2 remaining relevant fantasy players on Washington, but their involvement in the offense is unreliable; Jackson’s targets vary from week to week and Morris still shares redzone opportunities, while being completely absent from the passing game.
The Giants’ offense will be forced to throw the ball against Washington because the Redskins are 3rd in the NFL against the run, giving up only 2.8 yards per carry (64.7 yards/game) through their first three games. Eli Manning will be looking to Victor Cruz and Larry Donnell most of the night to avoid having Rashad Jennings bottled up at the line of scrimmage by the stout Washington defensive line; trusting Eli to throw the ball 30 times without turning it over is a risky proposition.
On a short week, this NFC East matchup shapes up to be a battle of defenses, which should amount to a series of field goals. There is not a single favorable matchup for any of the skill players in this game; Vegas has the Redskins as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 45.5, which would project a Washington 24-21 victory over the Giants. I don’t see where those points will be scored, so I’m fading every player in this game. Predicted Score: Washington 16, NY Giants 10.
Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:
4-stars: None
3-stars: None
2-stars: Pierre Garcon (DK @ $7100, FD @ $7300; GPP only)
1-star: Niles Paul (DK @ $5400, FD @ $5100; GPP only), Washington defense (DK @ $3000, FD @ $4500; Cash/GPP)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Dan Bailey, DAL ($5500 versus New Orleans): Bailey is perfect on the season, will be involved in the highest-scoring game of the weekend, and has only missed two field goals at home in his 4-year career with the Cowboys. Looks like a solid play, if you can afford his hefty salary.
Dan Carpenter, BUF ($5100 versus Houston): Choosing kickers is often a crapshoot because it is difficult to predict field goals versus touchdowns. One statistic that can be utilized to potentialy predict field goals is red zone efficiency, which is a measure of a team's ability to score touchdowns when inside the opponent's 20-yard line; the Buffalo Bills are currently tied for last in the NFL in red zone effiency and were 28th in the NFL last year. Against a Houston team that is allowing > 5 yards per carry to opposing running backs, Buffalo could find themselves in scoring position often on Sunday, which makes Carpenter a sneaky selection for GPP's where he will surely be underowned.
Robbie Gould, CHI ($4600 versus Green Bay): Like Bailey, Gould is perfect on the season and is a steady kicker every season. At his price tag, he affects your salary minimally, while providing a decent floor and potential upside if the Bears' skill players are unable to find the endzone.
TEAM DEFENSES
Chargers (versus Jacksonville): (FD: $5300, DK: $3100). The Jags are averaging only ~ 14 points per game and even those few points have not been pretty. This week, they travel cross-country to play a stingy Chargers' defense at home; in their only other home game this year, the Chargers stifled a very good Seahawks' offense, holding them to 288 yards of total offense. With Blake Bortles making his first NFL start and Vegas projecting a 15-point performance from Jacksonville, the Chargers look like the safest play on the board this coming Sunday.
Dolphins (versus Oakland): (FD: $5200, DK: $3100). In this column last week, I gave you the Dolphins as a sleeper GPP pick against the Chiefs and they rewarded you with 10 fantasy points if you took that chance. This week, they will travel to London to take on the hapless Raiders, who are ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing and 31st in passing. The oddsmakers have the Raiders slated to score only 18 points, so the Dolphins should be on your radar this week.
Steelers (versus Tampa Bay): (FD: $4900, DK: $2900). The Steelers play host to the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week #4; the Bucs have yielded nearly 15 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses through their first three games of the season. This week, Tampa Bay will give the reigns to 2nd year QB, Mike Glennon, to see if he can turn around this struggling offense. The Steelers come off a 14-fantasy point performance against the Panthers on Sunday Night Football, but had several key injuries on defense in that game, causing them to sign James Harrison out of retirement; despite the injuries, the Steelers are always tough at home and the smart guys in Vegas think that Pittsburgh can hold the Bucs to less than 20 points.
Raiders (versus Miami): (FD: $4600, DK: $2600). Every week, I try to find a bargain defense to recommend, in the event that you really need to stretch your remaining salary; this week, the Raiders are that risky, but calculated, play. Both teams will have to travel to London for this one, which should slow them both down, and the Dolphins' offense is far from stellar; in fact, Miami is giving up the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing defense in 2014. Entering this game, there is talk of replacing Ryan Tannehill with Matt Moore, which could put additional pressure on the struggling QB to try to force plays when they are not there. Overall, this entire game lacks much fantasy goodness, other than giving consideration to defensive units on both sides of the ball.
