Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
San Diego | Jacksonville | -14 | 29.25 | 44.5 | +++ | + | +++ |
New Orleans | Dallas | -3 | 28 | 53 | ++ | +++ | |
San Francisco | Philadelphia | -4.5 | 27.5 | 50.5 | ++ | + | |
Indianapolis | Tennessee | -7 | 26.25 | 45.5 | ++ | + | |
Pittsburgh | Tampa Bay | -7.5 | 25.75 | 44 | +++ | + | + |
Dallas | New Orleans | 3 | 25 | 53 | + | ++ | |
Atlanta | Minnesota | -3 | 24.75 | 46.5 | + | ||
Green Bay | Chicago | 0 | 24.5 | 49 | ++ | ++ | |
New England | Kansas City | -4 | 24.5 | 45 | |||
Chicago | Green Bay | 0 | 24.5 | 49 | + | ||
Washington | NY Giants | -3 | 24 | 45 | |||
Philadelphia | San Francisco | 4.5 | 23 | 50.5 | + | ||
Detroit | NY Jets | 0 | 22.5 | 45 | + | ||
NY Jets | Detroit | 0 | 22.5 | 45 | |||
Miami | Oakland | -4.5 | 22.5 | 40.5 | + | ++ | |
Houston | Buffalo | -3 | 22 | 41 | |||
Minnesota | Atlanta | 3 | 21.75 | 46.5 | |||
NY Giants | Washington | 3 | 21 | 45 | |||
Baltimore | Carolina | -2.5 | 20.75 | 39 | + | ||
Kansas City | New England | 4 | 20.5 | 45 | |||
Tennessee | Indianapolis | 7 | 19.25 | 45.5 | + | ||
Buffalo | Houston | 3 | 19 | 41 | |||
Carolina | Baltimore | 2.5 | 18.25 | 39 | |||
Tampa Bay | Pittsburgh | 7.5 | 18.25 | 44 | |||
Oakland | Miami | 4.5 | 18 | 40.5 | |||
Jacksonville | San Diego | 14 | 15.25 | 44.5 |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Dallas): Dallas is ranked amongst the bottom 5 in the NFL is pass coverage after facing pedestrian passing opponents in San Francisco, Tennessee, and St. Louis. This game could get ugly when they are trying to keep pace with the frenetic New Orleans offense; Brees could have 400 yards passing and multiple touchdowns, particularly if Romo can manage to trade touchdowns with him and keep the game close, as Vegas is predicting.
RUNNING GAME
- San Diego (versus Jacksonville): The Jags are last in the NFL in total defense and ranked next-to-last in rushing defense. Meanwhile, Donald Brown is the only survivor in a San Diego backfield decimated with injuries; coming off a ridiculous 31-carry outing this past week, Brown should see another 20+ carry outing and accrue significant yardage against this Jacksonville defense.
- Pittsburgh (versus Tampa Bay): Le'Veon Bell is currently 2nd in the NFL in total rushing yards (trailing only DeMarco Murray) and gets a matchup against the Tampa Bay Bucs, who were embarrassed last week by the Atlanta Falcons. Through 3 games, the Bucs have been respectable against the run, but they have faced DeAngelo Williams, Zac Stacy, and Stephen Jackson, respectively, none of whom have the talent of Le'Veon Bell. As big favorites, Bell could see extensive time in the second half to protect a Steelers' lead.
TEAM DEFENSE
- San Diego (versus Jacksonville): The Chargers stymied Seattle's offense at home in Week #2 (288 total yards allowed) and followed that up with another stellar performance last weekend in Buffalo, allowing less than 300 yards of total offense again. This week, they get the worst team in the NFL at home against a rookie QB (Blake Bortles) making his 1st career start.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Green Bay (versus Chicago): Chicago's secondary is decimated with injuries and they will be coming off a short week to host their NFC North rivals, the Green Bay Packers. In Week #3, Geno Smith put together a 300-yard passing night against the Bears, so there is little reason to believe that Aaron Rodgers cannot do the same in a game where Vegas has them slated to score nearly 4 touchdowns.
- Dallas (versus New Orleans): Tony Romo's stats have been marginalized by DeMarco Murray's grandiose start to the 2014 campaign. Romo's yards per attempt are on par with his career numbers, but the attempts have not been there thus far because of game flow (i.e., Murray's success); that will likely change against the Saints, who scored 49 points and 34 points over the past two years against the Cowboys. Thus, Romo may be forced to throw the ball 35 times this game to keep pace.
RUNNING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Dallas): Dallas is giving up > 150 yards/game on the ground after losing 3 of their starting linebackers entering the season. If New Orleans builds an early lead and the Cowboys are unable to respond, the Saints could rely on Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas to pound that beaten Cowboys' defense into submission.
- San Francisco (versus Philadelphia): Vegas has the Niners scoring ~ 28 points as a 4.5-point favorite headed into their matchup against the Eagles next Sunday; if Vegas is correct, Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde could be in store for solid fantasy days, after some recent stinkers.
- Indianapolis (versus Tennessee): As 7-point favorites, the high-scoring Colts could continue to lean on both Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw for production on the ground against the Titans this Sunday. The problem will be selecting the back who will see the most action for fantasy purposes.
- Green Bay (versus Chicago): Eddie Lacy was called out in the media from his head coach on Monday for not running hard after contact. The Bears are giving up ~ 5 yards per carry into this young season, despite playing the Bills, Niners, and Jets, none of whom have powerhouse ground games. Expect Lacy to show up to play with his job on the line against this lackluster rush defense.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Miami (versus Oakland): Oakland is averaging < 13 points per game and is playing host to the Dolphins in a game that, according to oddsmakers, has the Raiders scoring only 18 points. Miami is second in the league in sacks, which could spell disaster for Derek Carr, who has traditionally struggled with efficiency under pressure in college.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- San Diego (versus Jacksonville): Jacksonville is a mess on all sides of the ball and the Chargers are slated to score nearly 30 points...some of which will surely come through the air; do not get carried away with San Diego's passing game, as the second half of this game should dictate a large role for their running back(s).
- San Francisco (versus Philadelphia): San Francisco is projected to score a lot of points this week (~ 28); it stands to reason that some of those points will come through the air, particularly given that their opponent, the Eagles, are coming off a game where they yielded > 400 yards through the air to Kirk Cousins.
- Indianapolis (versus Tennessee): Despite the fact that they are 7-point favorites, Indy will still air the ball out early in the game because their best player is their quarterback; if they score 26 points, as Vegas projects, Andrew Luck will surely own a piece of that fantasy projection.
- Pittsburgh (versus Tampa Bay): Tampa Bay gave up 56 points to Atlanta last week. Anything is possible against this defense. Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are in sync through the first three weeks and the Bucs could help propagate their productivity.
- Chicago (versus Green Bay): Matt Forte has suffered in 2014 because of a string of injuries to his offensive line. His next opponent, the Green Bay Packers, are ranked 30th in yards allowed on the ground through the first three games, which should be a relief for Forte and the Bears' reeling rushing game.
- Detroit (versus NY Jets): The Jets continue to get trounced via opposing quarterbacks, while their run defense is top in the league. Next week, look for Detroit to abandon the run early and challenge the Jets' ragged secondary. In a potentially tight game, Matthew Stafford should be able to throw the ball for all four quarters.
- Philadelphia (versus San Francisco): Chip Kelly's offense almost mandates a weekly appearance in this column. After scoring 30 or more points in each of their first three games, Philly's passing game must be considered heading into next Sunday, particularly when Vegas has them chasing points in the matchup.
- Tennessee (versus Indianapolis): As 7-point underdogs against the high-flying colts, the Titans may have to attack the Colts through the air in the second half to keep pace; if that happens, look for the Titans' QB (*) to benefit (*keep an eye on Jake Locker's injury, as Charlie Whitehurst could get the start, if Locker is unable to recover by Sunday).
RUNNING GAME
- Dallas (versus New Orleans): DeMarco Murray is the most productive running back in the league through the first three games. Given his success, the Cowboys will look to slow down the Saints' offense by handing the ball to Murray early and often; look for Murray to get 20+ carries (as he has done in each game thus far), which could equate to continued production for the Cowboys' star running back.
- Atlanta (versus Minnesota): The Falcons will come into this Sunday's matchup against the Vikings with 10 days rest and are slated to score ~ 25 points as 3-point favorites. If they build a lead, they would lean on the diverse Falcon backfield; the problem will be choosing the running back with the biggest upside.
- Miami (versus Oakland): Lamar Miller had an excellent Week #3 against the Chiefs and is getting the majority of snaps since Knowshon Moreno's injury. This week, the Dolphins travel to Oakland to face the Raiders, who are ranked next-to-last in the NFL for yards allowed against the run. If Miami were bigger favorites or if they were projected to score more points, this could be a 3-star play.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Pittsburgh (versus Tampa Bay): Tampa Bay is a bad team. They lost to Carolina at home. They lost to St. Louis on the road. They were absolutely trounced by the Falcons last week. Now they have to travel to Pittsburgh and try to compete against the Steelers, who stifled the Panthers this past weekend.
- Baltimore (versus Carolina): The Panthers are still subject to debate--they started 2-0 against the Bucs and Lions, but then were convincingly beaten by the Steelers this past week. They are averaging ~ 20 points per game, but will have to put up points in Baltimore this weekend, which is never an easy task. Vegas projects the Panthers at ~ 18 points, which means that the Ravens represent a decent punt play for team defense.