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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Nick Foles (Primarily GPP; FD: $8300, DK: $8000). Foles faces the Niners, who are coming off back-to-back losses to Chicago and Arizona; surprisingly, the talented running backs from those teams (Matt Forte and Andre Ellington) were not able to collectively accumulate 100 yards between them in those two games. In fact, the Niners are allowing only 85.7 yards per game on the ground, good enough for 6th in the NFL. With both LeSean McCoy and the Eagles defense struggling, Nick Foles may have to continue throwing the ball--he has thrown for 300 yards every game this year (which equates to bonus points on DraftKings). Vegas has the Eagles playing from behind, so the passing game should be in full effect. At his ~ $8K price tag, he needs to accumulate 300+ yards passing and 3+ touchdowns to reach value for GPP purposes...
Tony Romo (GPP only; FD: $7500, DK: $6700). Everybody will be targeting this game because it should be an old-fashioned Texas shootout. However, most people will be rostering players in black and gold, while ignoring the silver and blue--do not fall into that trap! Tony Romo is prone to mistakes, but he can also sling the ball with the best of them; last year, Romo had four 300-yard games (and a near-miss at 298) and could certainly be forced to do the same to keep pace with this powerful Saints' offense. The best part of rostering Romo is that he will be fairly low-owned and his salary is entirely reasonable at ~ $7K on both sites.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (GPP only; FD: $6500, DK: $5800). Super sneaky GPP quarterback of the week! Fitzpatrick and the Texans host the Buffalo Bills this week in a game where Buffalo should unleash C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson on the Texans' weak rushing defense giving up 5.2 yards per carry on the season. If Spiller and Jackson are successful, the Texans are likely to lean more heavily on Fitzpatrick than their running game, particularly if Arian Foster is still out; last week, Fitzpatrick quietly managed a 289-yard game with a touchdown (and 3 interceptions), but this Buffalo defense is ranked 26th against the pass, which bodes well for Fitzpatrick. At his salary, Fitzpatrick's output does not have to be 300 yards with 3 touchdowns to reach value...but that is not entirely out of the question with receivers Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins.
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Colin Kaepernick (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8100, DK: $7600). The 49ers host the high-flying Eagles' offense this week, which means that Kaepernick will be called upon early and often to match strides with Foles and company. The Eagles are ranked 30th in the NFL against the pass (allowing 8 TD's) and the Niners have been unusually reliant upon the passing game over the few weeks. Furthermore, Kaepernick has rushed for > 50 yards in both of those games, which adds to his fantasy value. At his salary, Kaepernick is a solid cash game play this week.
Drew Brees (Cash and GPP format; FD: $9200, DK: $9300). Brees has thrown for at least 35 passes every game this year and he has not yet faced a defense nearly as bad as the Cowboys; last week, Dallas allowed Austin Davis to throw for 327 yards and 3 touchdowns. Do not buy into the hype that Brees cannot play away from home--the Cowboys record in monstrous AT&T Stadium is barely above .500, nor does it have natural grass, both of which would otherwise work against Brees. Given the Cowboys' ability to score and keep the game close, Brees could have a big, big day in Dallas...particularly with the recent personnel changes in the Cowboys' secondary.
Matthew Stafford (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8600, DK: $8000). Matt Stafford disappointed DFS gamers in Week #3 with a pathetic performance against the Green Bay Packers; he will not disappoint this week against the Jets. If you read "Tips and Picks" regularly, you know how much I like to avoid RB's against the Jets, but pick on their secondary--this week will be no different. Entering Week #4, the Jets were tied for 2nd in most passing touchdowns allowed and are ranked in the bottom 10 for opposing QB rating. Stafford still has yet to throw less than 30 times in a game and given the dominance of the Jets defensive line, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where that trend would stop this week.
Philip Rivers (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8400, DK: $7700). Rivers gets the cake matchup of the week against the hapless Jags at home. Jacksonville is giving up over 300 yards per game through the air in 2014 and have given up 34, 41, and 44 points in their first three games, respectively. Vegas projects the Chargers to score 30 points; if Rivers is able to throw a few quick touchdowns in the first half along with 250+ yards, he should reach value for cash games. As 14-point favorites, however, Rivers must get most of his fantasy goodness in the first half because the Chargers will lean more heavily on the rush later in the game, particularly if they're protecting a large lead.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Kenny Stills (GPP Only; FD: $4600, DK: $3500), Brandin Cooks (GPP Only; FD: $6200, DK: $5300), & Marques Colston (GPP Only; FD: $5500, DK: $4800). The Cowboys' defense continues to struggle, despite the return of Orlando Scandrick (who is nowhere near an All Pro CB). With former 1st-round pick Morris Claiborne being demoted to nickelback, the entire Cowboys' secondary is in turmoil. Enter Drew Brees and his bevy of receivers. There is immense value with each New Orleans' WR, but the trick will be to choose which one is Brees' flavor of the day. Stills has the big play potential, Cooks has been the high-target WR thus far, and Colston should be running out of the slot and have the best overall matchup. Pick your poison and hope it hits.
Calvin Johnson (Primarily GPP; FD: $9300, DK: $8500) and Golden Tate (Primarily GPP; FD: $5500, DK: $4700). As discussed above, the Jets' secondary is far from stellar. A lot of DFS experts will have Calvin Johnson in their cash game recommendations this week and I cannot necessarily say that they are wrong; however, at his extreme salary Johnson must score a touchdown or he will not come close to reaching value for cash games. Golden Tate, on the other hand, should see single coverage most of the game and has an attractive salary on both sites, so he offers nice upside at a minimal price. One of these guys, possibly both, should have a big day on Sunday, so roster according to your available salary.
Dez Bryant (Primarily GPP; FD: $8900, DK: $7900). The Cowboys will be playing from behind on Sunday and for that reason, alone, Bryant's potential value is huge. That said, Bryant has been nursing injuries in this early part of the season and it is a dicey move to roster him in your cash games because he could leave the game at any given time (as evidenced by him leaving 2 out of 3 games thus far). Bryant, however, also offers major upside because of his ability to pull in catches in the redzone; he is known to finish with spectacular stat lines from time to time...Sunday could be one of those days.
Markus Wheaton (Primarily GPP; FD: $5100, DK: $4200). Markus Wheaton is lightning fast and has not yet had a big day, in fantasy terms. That may change this week when he gets a dreamy matchup against the one of the worst (statistically-speaking) cornerbacks in the NFL, Johnathan Banks. Banks is ranked 92nd of 97 qualifying cornerbacks in 2014, allowing 13 of 15 passes directed his way to be caught; Wheaton is averaging 7 targets per game and had a touchdown catch negated last week after just stepping out of bounds prior to the catch. His time is coming and his salary offers a lot of value in this matchup.
Keenan Allen (GPP only; FD: $6700, DK: $5300). Allen had a stellar rookie season in 2013 and has been a relative disappointment in the early part of this season with only 109 yards receiving and no touchdowns; part of his problem has been the resurgence of Antonio Gates, who has been Rivers' favorite target recently. The cure? The Jacksonville Jaguars! Allen should have no problem finding space agains the Jags' ragged secondary and he has the pedigree to finish this game with 6-120-2, which would be good enough for nearly 30 fantasy points.
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Andre Johnson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6700, DK: $5700). DeAndre Hopkins' hot start to the 2014 campaign has stolen the WR headlines in Houston, but do not count out Andre Johnson just yet; Johnson has 50% more targets than Hopkins and is the bigger redzone target to boot. This week, the Texans face the Bills, who are stout against the run, but soft against the pass. Johnson should face off against Stephon Gilmore, who has been dreadful in the early part of the season--take advantage of the matchup and Johnson's depressed salary for your cash games.
Michael Crabtree (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7000, DK: $6400). Michael Crabtree is seeing more action each week and is salivating at this weekend's game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Only the Jaguars are giving up more fantasy points to WR's than the Eagles in 2014. Look for Crabtree to get a sweet matchup against Eagles' CB Cary Williams, who has given up the 4th most passing yards (by cornerbacks) in the NFL.
Steve Smith (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6100, DK: $5600). Cash games are all about opportunity and Steve Smith is tied for 5th in the NFL with targets (32) through three games. Smith is not as fast as he once was, but he runs tough after the catch and he should see plenty of catches after the Ravens lost Dennis Pitta to a season-ending injury last week. At his low salary, Smith offers a high floor and little risk in a revenge game against his former team.
Julian Edelman (Cash format; FD: $7200, DK: $6500). Edelman is the prototypical cash game play because of the number of targets he routinely sees; last week, Edelman was targeted 13 times and he managed to pull in 10 of them for 84 yards. Despite not scoring a touchdown, Edelman finished a relatively quiet day with 13.4 FanDuel points and 18.4 DraftKings points, which would reach value on this week's salary. In this week's matchup, Edelman gets the Chiefs' Marcus Cooper, who is in the bottom 5 in the NFL in pass coverage. Barring injury, Edelman is low-risk because of his high floor.
Antonio Brown (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8400, DK: $7800). Antonio Brown is a model of consistency in the Steelers' offense. The Steelers have leaned heavily on Le'Veon Bell this year (and rightfully so), yet Antonio Brown still sees 8-12 targets every week. This Sunday should be no different--the Steelers will host the Tampa Bay Bucs, who do not match up well against the skill players on the Steelers, Brown included. Brown's upside might be limited if Pittsburgh jumps to an early lead, but he is too much of a cornerstone of this offense not to get his share of fantasy output.
