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For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
Thursday night games are traditionally lower-scoring than Sunday games, which is most often attributed to players recovering slowly from a game just 4 days earlier. While we cannot exactly prove why this occurs, we still cannot argue with the statistics. …but I am going against the statistics (and Vegas) this week.
Atlanta has yielded ~ 600 yards through the air in the first two weeks of the 2014 season; last year, they allowed nearly 28 points per game, which could suggest that the few personnel changes they have made over the past 12 months have done little to rectify their porous defense. Enter the Bucs, who have solid receiving weapons in Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans, yet have not yet scored a touchdown this year; with 30 collective targets between them, neither Jackson nor Evans have managed to pull in a touchdown yet. At some point, those targets will turn into receptions in the endzone.
Meanwhile, Doug Martin has been ruled out and Bobby Rainey, fresh off a 177-yard (combined) performance in Week #2 is priming himself to steal Martin’s job permanently. Mirroring their subpar passing defense, the Falcons have given up five touchdowns against opposing running backs through the first two games. If Josh McCown does manage to keep the passing game in play, Rainey’s upside is also significant.
The Falcons offense started on fire against the Saints, but fizzled last week against the Bengals. Which offense is representative of the Falcons’ talent? …I am leaning towards Week #1 against the Saints, which would argue that Matty Ice will be back with a vengeance this week. The running game is divided between 3 to 4 different runnings backs, so the only real fantasy attractions here will be involved in the Atlanta passing game. Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Julio Jones look to be solid options, but I like Roddy White most because he is lining up against Johnathan Banks, who ranks in the bottom 10 of cornerbacks in 2014.
Ordinarily, I would advise against rostering players from Thursday night games because they are generally over-owned and overall scoring is less than Sunday; however, call this a gut feeling that this game turns into a solid game for fantasy purposes. For cash games, you may want to wait until Sunday, but for GPPs, this game offers some attractive options. Predicted Score: Atlanta 30, Tampa Bay 28.
Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:
4-stars: None
3-stars: Roddy White (DK @ $5900; Cash/GPP)
2-stars: Bobby Rainey (DK @ $5800, FD @ $5700; GPP), Josh McCown (DK @ $6000, FD @ $6800; GPP), Mike Evans (DK @ $4200; Cash/GPP)
1-star: Julio Jones (DK @ $7500, FD @ $8500; Cash/GPP)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Steven Hauschka, SEA ($5200 versus Denver): The Seahawks are projected to score nearly four touchdowns at home this week; being indoors in a competitive games against the Broncos could lead to multiple FG opportunities. Bonus points for GPPs where Hauschka will be underowned due to his price.
Cody Parkey, PHI ($4900 versus Washington): The Eagles will continue to score points, regardless of opponent; Parkey has 24 points through two games and will not slow down this week against Washington. At a few hundred dollars above minimum price, he offers a nice floor with big upside.
Robbie Gould, CHI ($4600 versus NY Jets): Gould is a veteran who is trusted within his organization; likewise, his game is on Monday night against the Jets, so he offers that insurance policy that DFS players enjoy when they roster players for Monday night comebacks—Chicago should have no problem moving the ball, but scoring a rushing touchdown against the Jets’ front seven may prove to be difficult, so Gould could see his share of action at near min price.
TEAM DEFENSES
Patriots (versus Oakland): The Pats won some GPPs for a variety of people across the two major sites when they shut down the Vikings offense last week. This week, New England matches up against the feeble Oakland Raiders offense in their home opener. With no running game, the Raiders will look to put the ball in the air—however, Darrelle Revis will be covering James Jones, leaving just Rod Streater to challenge the Pats’ defense. There is minimal downside, but maximal upside with this selection (FD: $5400, DK: $3500).
Bengals (versus Tennessee): The Bengals defense has impressed against both the Falcons and the Ravens early in the 2014 season; they have given up yardage, but been vigilant against points allowed (3rd in the NFL). The Titans were unable to score more than 10 points against the Cowboys last week, a team with a far worse defense than Cincinnati; they travel to Cinci this week and face an uphill battle against a very solid defense (FD: $5300, DK: $3300).
Dolphins (versus Kansas City): Last week, I prompted you risk-takers to take the Redskins and they rewarded you with a 10-sack performance against the Jags. This week, the Dolphins are my risky play—they host the Chiefs, who (as of this writing) still do not have Jamaal Charles and remain without a viable receiving option. Without Charles, the Chiefs’ upside is limited, but the Dolphins could do good things against this otherwise punchless Chiefs offense (FD: $5000, DK: $2800).
Panthers (versus Pittsburgh): The Steelers have failed to score a touchdown in their previous six quarters of football; meanwhile, the Panthers have started the 2014 season on fire by holding the Bucs to 14 points (at home) and the powerful Lions to a single touchdown. This week, they host the Steelers, who have done little right on offense over the past two weeks. Solid value (FD: $5600, DK: $3300).