For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
The biggest story line headed into Thursday Night Football is not actually the game of football, but, instead, the Ray Rice debacle. The Baltimore Ravens had previously counted on their 27-year old running back returning for their Week #3 game against the Cleveland Browns; however, after releasing him, the Ravens find themselves preparing for the 2014 season with Bernard Pierce and Justin Forsett leading the running game. Last week, Pierce was pulled from the game after making his first career fumble and Forsett capitalized on the opportunity, scoring ~ 20 fantasy points in PPR format. Entering Week #2, there are questions regarding their playing time and overall roles in the running game, although it is reasonable to predict that Pierce will get another shot at being the lead back, while Forsett will get 3rd downs and passing opportunities. They will matchup against the Steelers, who struggled against the Browns in their season opener; three RB’s on the Browns combined for 173 yards on 27 carries (6.4 YPC) in Week #1. Thus, the matchup favors the Ravens’ running game.
Baltimore played from behind all of Week #1 and Joe Flacco had the pass attempts (62 of them) to prove it. Along the way, Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta accumulated 15 targets each, while Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith each had 7 passes thrown their way. This week, Baltimore will look to get away from leaning on Flacco so heavily, which is a role that does not behoove his skill set.
The Steelers bring to town a squad that fell apart in the second half of their opening game against the Cleveland Browns. In the first half, they scored 27 points; in the second half, they mustered only a tie-breaking field goal to eek out the win as time expired. That said, the slimmer Le’Veon Bell looked amazing in both phases of the offense, totaling nearly 200 yards of offense and almost 30 fantasy points; Antonio Brown was equally impressive, catching nearly everything Big Ben threw his way. This week, they have their hands full in an AFC North battle that traditionally has been characterized by defensive struggles. These defenses are no longer the juggernauts that they once were, as evidenced by Vegas’ total on the game (44.5 points); thus, there could be some fantasy points to be had...the biggest problem is predicting from where they will come because these two teams know each other very well and generally come with a gameplan that stifles the opposing offense. Predicted Score: Baltimore 20, Pittsburgh 17.
Overall, my enthusiasm for the game is limited and I will likely be staying away...if you must roster somebody, I recommend either of the kickers or any of these rated selections:
4-stars: None
3-stars: Heath Miller (DK @ $3300; Cash/GPP)
2-stars: None
1-star: Markus Wheaton (FD @ $5100; GPP), Bernard Pierce (DK @ $3600; GPP)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have ‘extra’ salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Nate Freese, DET ($4500 versus Carolina): Freese missed a FG on Monday Night Football against the Giants, but he is offered up at minimum price on FanDuel this week and presents value against a Panthers’ defense that bends, but rarely breaks; I could see Detroit moving the ball, but having problems in the redzone, which would result in more field goals than touchdowns. Worth a shot at the salary.
Shayne Graham, NO ($4700 versus Cleveland): Graham is a veteran on a team that scores a lot of points; last week, he connected on his only 2 FG attempts (31 and 50 yards) and also netted 4 extra points. As long as he is near min-priced, I have no problems slotting him into any and all lineups...particularly when his team is projected to score 27 points, as they are this week against the Browns.
Adam Vinatieri, IND ($5000 versus Philadelphia): Vinatieri is another veteran who can be relied upon in daily contests. This week, the Colts play host to the high-flying Eagles, in a game projected to score 53 points on Monday Night Football. The game is indoors, so weather is not a concern; likewise, the high-scoring nature of this game makes Vinatieri a solid pick.
TEAM DEFENSES
Buccaneers (versus St. Louis): The Bucs were somewhat of a letdown last week when they allowed the Derek Anderson-led Panthers to come into their own house and hand them a 20-14 loss. This week, they get a repeat edition in the form of the St. Louis Rams, whose QB is a real question mark after Shaun Hill and Austin Davis combined to put 6 points on the board last week against a Vikings’ defense that was preyed upon throughout the previous season. Vegas has the Bucs at a 5.5-point favorite and projects the Rams to score a paltry 16 points; if they can get a turnover from this young offense and only give up 2 touchdowns in the process, this defense should reach value on both major sites this Sunday (FD: $4900, DK: $3200).
Cardinals (versus NY Giants): A recipe for success in picking DFS defenses over the past year has been to roster a team playing against Eli Manning because he has nearly 30 interceptions over that timespan. The Cards are a solid unit with big cornerbacks that make it tough on opposing QB’s; Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie have combined for 5 Pro Bowl appearances in the past 3 years between them. In Week #1, the Cards allowed only 52 yards on the ground (2.2 YPC), forcing the Chargers to try their hand in the pass game; if they employ the same defensive strategy this week and Eli is forced to throw, we all know how that can turn out for an opposing defense (FD: $5300, DK: $3300).
Redskins (versus Jacksonville): A selection that is certainly not for the faint of heart. The Skins finished their 2013 campaign as one of the worst overall defenses in the NFL. Last week, however, they only gave up 17 points and 316 total yards to the Texans in an away game; this week, they host the lowly Jaguar offense in their home opener. Vegas has the Jags slated to score 18 points, so there is reason to consider taking the Skins’ defense, saving some salary space, being a bit contrarian, and hoping that they can force Chad Henne into a mistake or two (FD: $4500, DK: $2900).
Seahawks (versus San Diego): The Seahawks embarrassed the mighty Packers’ offense last week in the NFL opener on Thursday night; the 20-point victory may not have even reflected the actual level of dominance of the Seahawks’ defense in that game. They held the Pack to 255 total yards and managed to sack Aaron Rodgers 3 times. This week, they travel to San Diego to play a team that squeaked by in their opener against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football. With one less day to prepare, the Chargers will have their work cut out for them on Sunday against this tremendously well-balanced defensive unit (FD: $5400, DK: $4100).
