For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Shaun Hill (GPP & Cash format; FD: $5000, DK: $5000). Hill is the beneficiary of the season-ending injury to Sam Bradford during the preseason. When the smoke clears, Hill is not that much of a downgrade from Bradford, as he is a 34-year old veteran with sufficient experience to run this offense. His first matchup is a juicy one against one of last year’s poorer secondaries—the Minnesota Vikings; the Vikings allowed 300 yards passing on 8 different occasions in 2013. Given that Hill’s salary was set prior to Bradford’s injury, he appears to be a bargain in virtually all formats, although his upside may be limited.
Derek Carr (GPP only; FD: $5400, DK: $5000). Carr did not have to do much to beat out Matt Schaub for the starting position in Oakland and now finds himself traveling cross-country to take on the Jets. The Jets’ front 7 are one of the best in the entire NFL, but their secondary is severely lacking after losing guys to free agency, suspensions, and injuries. The Raiders only option for this game will be to test that Jets’ secondary for holes…if you roster Carr in a GPP, pair him with either James Jones or Rod Streater.
Andrew Luck (Primarily GPP; FD: $9200, DK: $8300). The Colts have the misfortune of traveling to Denver to open their 2014 campaign against Peyton Manning and the 2013 AFC Champs. Vegas has this game as a barnburner expecting 55 points to be scored; if that happens, it is likely that the Colts will be chasing points and airing it out, particularly given the questions surrounding their ground game entering the season. Luck could potentially finish this game with 3 TD’s and 300 yards, enough for ~ 25+ points on the various sites. Pair him with Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton, or Dwayne Allen for GPP’s (preference in that order).
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Tony Romo (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8300, DK: $7500). The Cowboys’ defense of 2013 was amongst the worst in the history of the NFL; the 2014 version might just be worse yet. If that comes to fruition, Romo will find himself throwing the ball early and often this season. The Cowboys host the 49ers on Sunday and find themselves a 4.5-point underdog, which suggests that Vegas agrees that the Niners will score at will. Scott Linehan, former offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions, was hired earlier this year to call plays for Romo & Company and he likes to throw the football. Romo has a bad reputation as a choke artist, and that may be true, but his fantasy numbers are generally consistent. He should have a solid day on Sunday against this 49ers’ defense that is missing some very key players.
Colin Kaepernick (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8500, DK: $8000). As stated above, the Cowboys’ defense is downright dreadful. Kaepernick should be able to find Anquan Boldin, Michael Crabtree, and Vernon Davis all day long. Add in his ability to scramble and you have a solid cash play for both major sites.
Drew Brees (Cash and GPP format; FD: $9700, DK: $9700). Last year, the Falcons claimed the worst pass rush defense in the league and were close to the bottom in fantasy points allowed by a secondary; a year later, they are putting the same personnel on the field for a game that is slated to have 51 total points scored between these teams. Sean Payton is a coach who will throw the ball in running situations often…and Brees is the beneficiary of all these factors. Expensive, but could feasibly finish the day with 300+ yards and 3-4 touchdowns, which would easily pay off his hefty salary.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Rod Streater (GPP Only; FD: $4700, DK: $3400) & James Jones (GPP Only; FD: $4900, DK: $4400). As discussed in Derek Carr’s rundown, the Jets’ secondary is atrocious and Oakland’s only option to win this game is to pass the ball. These WR’s will be owned almost nowhere, are dirt-cheap, and make excellent options for GPP tournaments where contrarian lineups win big bucks.
Brian Hartline (GPP Only; FD: $4900, DK: $4500). The Dolphins play host to their nemesis, the New England Patriots on opening day; Miami’s WR1, Mike Wallace, will be trapped on Revis Island all day. If Miami falls behind, as Vegas projects, they eventually will be forced to throw the ball to any open receiver, including Brian Hartline (possibly, Charles Clay). After Revis, the Patriots’ secondary talent is extremely devoid of talent…this is a great spot for Hartline, who will go under the radar in most daily GPP contests.
Golden Tate (Primarily GPP; FD: $5000, DK: $5100). Nobody is going to shutdown Calvin Johnson, but Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie will at least keep him honest on Sunday and force Matt Stafford to distribute the ball to other receivers, like Golden Tate. At $5000, Tate could be a steal for a GPP play, particularly when the Lions are projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns on Monday night.
Brandin Cooks (GPP Only; FD: $5000, DK: $4500). As stated above, Brees could be in store for a 300-yard night against the Falcons’ secondary. Logic would dictate that Jimmy Graham will catch a touchdown or two, but a nice GPP play is to roster the ultra-cheap rookie out of Oregon State and hope that he connects with Brees on a couple of touchdowns. Cooks finished his Junior season at Oregon State with 128 receptions, over 1700 receiving yards, and 16 touchdowns; he has looked good in preseason and definitely has the tools around him to keep his college momentum rolling into his rookie season.
Reggie Wayne (Primarily GPP; FD: $6200, DK: $5100). Wayne returns to the field after missing most of the 2013 season with an injury. With the Colts likely playing catchup for most of the game, Wayne stands to catch a lot of passes, making him an attractive candidate for full PPR sites like DK; if he manages to turn one of those receptions into a TD, he could put somebody in a good position to win a GPP at his reasonable salary.
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Kelvin Benjamin (Cash only; FD: $4900, DK: $4200). Benjamin is the only legitimate WR on the Panthers’ depth chart; Jerricho Cotchery will not be distracting too many safeties in 2014. That said, Cam Newton will have to throw to somebody and at Benjamin’s insanely-low salaries, he is almost guaranteed to reach value with just 6 catches and 60 yards receiving; if he manages a TD, it’s gravy.
Jeremy Maclin (Cash & GPP format; FD: $5000, DK: $5700). FanDuel really dropped the ball on Maclin’s price entering Week #1. He is the Eagles’ WR1 and, despite coming off a year-long injury, he had previously been highly-targeted in their offense; there is no reason to believe Maclin will not finish the day with at least a half-dozen catches for 60-100 yards and a TD. He should be in every cash game lineup on FanDuel.
Terrance Williams (Primarily GPP; FD: $6100, DK: $4600) and Dez Bryant (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8500, DK: $7800). The Cowboys will be throwing the ball early and often Sunday to keep up with the points that their defense allows. Jason Witten is aging quickly, which leaves these two primary beneficiaries on the receiving end of things. Bryant will be heavily-targeted by Romo, but Williams’ salary is quite low, making him a potential cash game play on DraftKings; otherwise, he is known to be a deep threat and is also a prototypical GPP play.
Anquan Boldin (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6000, DK: $4700) and Michael Crabtree (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6500, DK: $6100). As mentioned throughout this article, the Cowboys’ defense is bad. Either of these guys could have huge days against their secondary; both have reasonable salaries that minimize risk. (*Crabtree is currently questionable, so check his status on Sunday before rosters lock)
Victor Cruz (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6900, DK: $6300). The Detroit Lions’ secondary allowed 9 different 100-yard receivers in 2013 and enter 2014 with few personnel changes; meanwhile, their front seven have done well in shutting down the rush. Thus, Eli will be forced to throw to beat the Lions; of his options, he trusts Cruz the most—look for Cruz to finish the day with > 10 targets, which should lead to a solid day of production.
Brandon Marshall (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8100, DK: $7600). Brandon Marshall was a fantastic cash game play for most of the 2013 season. There is no reason to suggest that trend will not continue against a Bills secondary that has undergone a lot of changes, not necessarily for the better, over the past 12 months. Playing at home…with Cutler…projected to score 4 TDs? Yes, please.
