For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Ladarius Green (GPP Only; FD: $4500, DK: $3200). The 3rd year tight end out of Louisiana-Lafayette showed signs of brilliance in 2013, but his production was highly inconsistent. This week, he matches up against the last-ranked team against TE’s from 2013 and looks to steal some of the limelight from Antonio Gates. Green, a big-play tight end, can provide the upside a GPP pick requires at a fair price tag.
Kyle Rudolph (Primarily GPP; FD: $5700, DK: $4300). The arrival of Norv Turner to Minnesota raises Kyle Rudolph’s fantasy stock, as Turner has been known to create fantasy goodness from the tight end position. With a staunch front 7, the Rams will get pressure on Vikings’ QB Matt Cassel, forcing him to dump off passes to avoid sacks; it would not be surprising to see Rudolph pick up some of those receptions. Furthermore, Rudolph’s 6’6” frame can make him an attractive target in the redzone, should the Vikings find themselves there on Sunday. His price on DraftKings is more attractive than FanDuel for GPP contests.
Charles Clay (GPP Only; FD: $5800, DK: $3900). With Mike Wallace contending with Darrelle Revis on Sunday, Ryan Tannehill’s receiving options will be limited to Brian Hartline and Charles Clay. Clay quietly amassed 69 receptions for 759 yards and 6 touchdowns last year—with another year of experience between him and Tannehill, it would not be surprising to see Clay start off the 2014 season with a productive day. Because he plays in Miami, he will be underowned and is a prime candidate for a GPP play, particularly at his price tag on DraftKings.
Vernon Davis (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $4800). If you have been reading this column, you know how putrid I believe the Cowboys’ defense to be entering this season. Davis should have no problem mincing the injured, suspended, and outclassed Cowboy defense on Sunday. He would be ranked higher in this column if the Niners had a history of consistently targeting him; unfortunately, his production is very inconsistent and that is why he is only a GPP play this week.
Jason Witten (GPP Only; FD: $6500, DK: $4500). The Gavin Escobar era in Dallas is looming. Witten still has highly-productive games, but they are no longer weekly occurrences; this week, against an overrated Niners’ defense, Witten has the potential to catch 10 balls for 100 yards and a TD…but he could also finish with 3 receptions for 30 yards. Thus, GPP only.
Julius Thomas (Primarily GPP; FD: $7400, DK: $5800). The masses think that Julius Thomas is a cash game tight end, but he is not. In 2013, he went over 100 yards receiving only twice and had more than 5 catches only 3 times; his upside is immense, but his salary is too high to play him anywhere other than GPP tournaments. Let the suckers play him in cash games, while you get the guys listed below.
Rob Gronkowski (GPP only; FD: $8000, DK: $6700). Gronk is still not 100% and the Patriots’ coaching staff is not going to share exactly where he currently stands. What we do know is that he is expected to play on Sunday, but we do not know how much. My guess is that he plays only in the redzone and on 3rd downs, which limits him to GPP contests only.
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Zach Ertz (GPP & Cash format; FD: $4500, DK: $4100). Ertz is on everybody’s short list as a breakout tight end for 2014. This week, the Eagles are projected to score 31 points and Ertz hopes to get his share of that output. His rookie season was fairly productive (for a tight end) and he looks to continue improving in Chip Kelly’s offense, where he is almost always open for a reception. His price is just too low on both of the main daily sites and, for that reason alone, he is a solid cash game play.
Antonio Gates (GPP & Cash format; FD: $5600, DK: $3400). For the same reasons discussed for Ladarius Green above, Gates is a solid play this week against the Cardinals on Monday night. The uninformed believe Gates to be giving way to Green, but Gates had an almost career-high in targets in 2013; he will continue to be heavily-used in this offensive scheme and has tremendous upside against a team that cannot cover the TE position. Gates is an extremely attractive option on DraftKings at his current salary.
Jimmy Graham (GPP & Cash format; FD: $8100, DK: $7200). There is no explanation necessary. Graham is the best tight end in the NFL and the Saints use him as a wide receiver. His upside is immense and his floor is high. Perfect cash game play, if you can afford him.
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Toby Gerhart (Primarily GPP; FD: $6100, DK: $5600). Toby Gerhart has waited 4+ years for the opportunity to be a starting RB in the NFL. His college statistics over his last 2 years at Stanford were gaudy (3000+ rushing yards and 43 touchdowns), but his NFL stats, while limited, are also impressive. He receives the ball well out of the backfield and averaged 4.7 yards per carry in Minnesota (versus Adrian Peterson’s 4.95 YPC over the same time). Jacksonville has said they will commit to giving Gerhart the ball 20 times per game; if they do, he has immense upside against an Eagles’ defense that looked subpar in the preseason.
Chris Johnson (GPP Only; FD: $6500, DK: $5100). Chris Johnson has a reputation for being a frustrating fantasy player and the legitimacy of that argument can be debated; however, he is the type of player who can win you a GPP because of his big-play ability. This week, CJ2K matches up against the Oakland Raiders, who have been known to give up a big game to opposing players from time to time. He remains a GPP play only because of the fact that Chris Ivory will likely steal any carries inside the 5-yard line. Nonetheless, he is a perfect GPP play because he could have a big day and will be severely underowned due to his reputation.
Zac Stacy (GPP Only; FD: $8300, DK: $6400). Zac Stacy was a workhorse in the 2nd half of the 2013 season and finished with 250 carries for nearly 1000 yards. His opponent, the Minnesota Vikings, gave up 18.3 points per game to opposing RB’s in 2013, good enough for 8th worst in the NFL. If the Rams feed Stacy the ball, early and often, he could amass numbers that put you in a good position for GPP payouts.
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Steven Jackson (GPP & Cash format; FD: $6900, DK: $5000). The arrival of Devonta Freeman to Atlanta has the fantasy pundits screaming for Steven Jackson’s head…and while his better days are behind him, the fact remains that the Falcons trust Jackson and, for that reason alone, he retains value in daily fantasy. This week, he matches up against the Saints, a team he has performed well against in the past. The strength of the Saints defense is their secondary, which might suggest that the Falcons will try to run the ball to control the clock and keep Brees off the field, as much as possible. Jackson should get goal-line carries, as well, so it would appear that he has a decent floor in a game predicted to score a lot of points.
Frank Gore (GPP & Cash format; FD: $7200, DK: $5200). Going up against the Cowboys’ defense as a 4.5-point favorite, Gore looks to get ~ 18-22 carries against this terrible defense in a potential blowout. With reasonable pricing on the two major sites, this cash game play looks like a no-brainer to reach value.
Montee Ball (GPP & Cash format; FD: $8000, DK: $7000). With the departure of Knowshon Moreno to Miami, Montee Ball looks to be the bell cow RB in Denver this year. Peyton has made average RB’s look like all-stars in the past (what ever happened to Joseph Addai?), but Ball is no average RB—his production at Wisconsin in college was impressive. With the offensive weaponry in Denver these days, Ball could see a lot of carries simply due to protecting leads later in the game. If that likely scenario occurs, Ball could be in for some big Sundays, including this week against the Colts.
DeMarco Murray (GPP & Cash format; FD: $8800, DK: $7000). Ordinarily, any RB against the 49ers’ defense would be a no-go, but with the injuries and suspensions that their starting defense has endured over the past few months, DeMarco Murray looks to be a solid option heading into Sunday’s games. With the arrival of Scott Linehan to Dallas to call plays, Murray could be even more involved in the Cowboys’ offense than previously. Add in the fact that the Cowboys are projected to score 3.5 touchdowns, it stands to reason that Murray will get his share of action, particularly in full PPR sites, like DraftKings.
LeSean McCoy (GPP & Cash format; FD: $9400, DK: $8400). Eagles favored to win by 10+? Check. Eagles projected to score 31 points? Check. Eagles’ offense runs through LeSean McCoy? Check.
Jamaal Charles (Primarily Cash games; FD: $9400, DK: $9000). Rostering a RB against the Titans is generally not a long-term winning strategy, but Jamaal Charles is the exception to a whole lot of fantasy football rules. With Dwayne Bowe serving a 1-game suspension in Week #1, Alex Smith’s receiving options are limited to guys like Donnie Avery, Frankie Hammond Jr., and rookie tight end Travis Kelce. Thus, Jamaal Charles could potentially be more involved in the Chiefs’ passing game than normal (if that is possible). At his salary, his upside is more limited, but his floor remains high enough to make him a solid cash game play.
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL Week #1 games. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick