Tips & Picks (Wednesday): Week 16

Photo: Stan Liu, USA Today Sports

For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the best DFS selections for the early games (Thursday/Saturday), while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…

THURSDAY & SATURDAY GAME ANALYSIS

TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE

Passing Game

• Tennessee: Jake Locker and Zach Mettenberger are now on the injured reserve, leaving only Charlie Whitehurst to lead the Titans' offense against the Jags in Jacksonville on Thursday night. This game looks like a fantasy snoozefest at almost every level; the only player you should be eyeing in this matchup is TE Delanie Walker, who is one of the more reliable tight ends on this short game slate.
• Jacksonville: The Titans have tightened up their passing defense since allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 6 TD's a few weeks ago, but they are still susceptible due to their lesser talented cornerback crew; the trio of Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee, and Cecil Shorts III will assuredly be heavily involved in the passing game, but it is a complete guess as to whom Blake Bortles will target. Due to the uncertainty with regards to whom will get the most targets, all three of these receivers get a downgrade, despite the plus matchup.

Running Game

• Tennessee: Bishop Sankey and Shonn Greene appear to be splitting carries in this 29th ranked offense (points per game), which limits both the floor and upside for both of them against a Jags' rush defense that has been susceptible to talented running backs this season; unfortunately, neither of these options qualifies as a 'talented' running back at this point in their respective careers. Pass.
• Jacksonville: When Denard Robinson went on the IR a few weeks ago, the Jags' ability to rush the ball went with him. Toby Gerhart is next-in-line, but he still loses carries to Storm Johnson and Jordan Todman, which limits Gerhart's upside; the matchup is decent, but the salary has to be appropriate (i.e., cheap) to justify rostering Gerhart.

Defense

• Tennessee: The Titans' defense is averaging 5.2 fantasy points per game this season. Despite a plus matchup against the Jags and Blake Bortles, Vegas still has the Jags listed as favorites, which means that enthusiasm for the Titans' defense should be limited.
• Jacksonville: Rostering the Jags' defense on this short slate is a sneaky play. The Titans offensive line yields the 7th most sacks per game, while the Jags are actually ranked 6th in the league with 38 sacks on the season. Add in the fact that Charlie Whitehurst is the QB and his skill player options are limited and the Jags are one of the top defensive plays on this limited game slate.

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON

Passing Game

• Philadelphia: The Redskins have allowed 10 passing touchdowns over their past three games and are ProFootballFocus' worst-rated pass coverage unit. Enter Mark Sanchez, Jeremy Maclin, and Jordan Matthews, all of whom have plus matchups against this Redskins' defense. Maclin should get a steady dose of Bashaud Breeland, while Matthews will be loosely shadowed by E.J. Biggers; Breeland is the 63rd ranked cornerback in the league (out of 74 qualifiers), while Biggers is allowing opposing quarterbacks to rate out at 131.9 when they throw in his direction. All three of these players should be on your DFS radar for the abbreviated game slate.
• Washington: Robert Griffin III looked rejuvenated last week against the NY Giants, but his head coach (Gruden) blasted him in front of the media once again this week, which assuredly cannot help a struggling quarterback's confidence. If DeSean Jackson is healthy, he would certainly love to knock his former team out of playoff contention, but the likelihood of him being 100% on a short week is minimal. Both Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed have had limited success with RG3 at the helm, so they are GPP plays, at best. This is a great matchup for the Redskins' passing game, but they do not appear to have the personnel to take proper advantage.

Running Game

• Philadelphia: LeSean McCoy has been one of the bigger disappointments this season after having a career year in 2013. The Redskins are a enigmatic rushing defense in that they are ProFootballFocus' 26th ranked rushing defense, but are the 7th best rushing defense in terms of yards per carry and total yards per game. The Eagles' offensive line boasts the best run-blocking team in the league, so this could be a good spot for LeSean McCoy...however, we have seen better situations where he has faltered this season. On a limited slate, though, he is still high on the list.
• Washington: The Eagles are one of the better rush defenses in the league, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry and 113.9 rushing yards per game this season; it is their passing defense that opponents look to exploit. Here, Alfred Morris looks to have limited upside, particularly since the 'Skins should be playing from behind most of the game and Morris does not receive the ball well.

Defense

• Philadelphia: The Redskins give up the second most sacks behind the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Eagles are the second best team at sacking the quarterback. Those numbers do not sit well with Robert Griffin III, who has sat out a lot of time due to injuries sustained due to getting hit by opposing defenses. This could be a big spot for the Eagles' defense, but they are the most expensive defense on this short slate.
• Washington: The Eagles are slated to score 30 points this weekend, which is the second most number of points on the entire NFL slate. Avoid the Redskins' defense at all costs.

SAN DIEGO AT SAN FRANCISCO

Passing Game

• San Diego: There are questions abound on the Chargers' offense. QB Philip Rivers still has not practiced this week due to chest/back issues, WR Keenan Allen broke his collarbone and will not play, and RB Ryan Mathews looks to be sidelined again with an ankle injury. These injuries do bring into play some value opportunities, but do not forget the Chargers will be playing one of the better defenses in the NFL. In the passing game, Antonio Gates is in play due to his ability to dominate; as a GPP-only play, WR Seji Ajirotutu could be sneaky because he will benefit from the Keenan Allen injury and he is likely minimum-priced.
• San Francisco: Colin Kaeparnick has less than 200 yards passing in four of his previous five games; he is averaging only ~ 25 yards rushing over those same games, which means that he has been generally unproductive as of late. In fact, Kaeparnick has only scored 20+ fantasy points on two occasions this season. That said, it is difficult to recommend any part of the Niners' passing game without a running back to take pressure away from the quarterback; expect the Chargers to force the 49ers to run the ball with Alfonso Smith and make him beat them...which will not happen at home.

Running Game

• San Diego: At 7-7, the 49ers have been far from dominant this season; however, they have been consistently solid on defense, particularly since getting some key players back from injury/suspension later in the season. If the Niners are to have a chance to compete in this game, it will be on the heels of their defense. Ryan Mathews will miss this game, which means that Brandon Oliver will get his chance to go against this 8th ranked rush defense (yards per game). Despite the tough matchup, Oliver is reasonably-priced on both major sites, so he deserves consideration, particularly given the limited options elsewhere.
• San Francisco: While the Chargers do not field a menacing defense with any particular strength, the 49ers' offense has stuttered for most of the season and now they are without either of their starting running backs. Frank Gore is still on a concussion protocol after being knocked out of last week's game against the Seahawks and Carlos Hyde is almost assuredly sidelined due to a back injury; this leaves Alfonso Smith to take over the running duties for the Niners...he is min-priced and worthy of consideration given the limited options at the RB position on this short slate.

Defense

• San Diego: The Chargers' defense is hit-or-miss in fantasy circles this season; they have five games with 10 or more fantasy points and six games with less than 3 fantasy points. The 49ers' offensive line gives up a lot of sacks (3rd most in the NFL), but the Chargers are not a team that gets to the opposing quarterback often (27th in the NFL on ProFootballFocus). With a low Vegas total, the Chargers' defense would appear to be a safe play, although their upside might be limited due to a lack of explosiveness on that side of the ball.
• San Francisco: Despite being at home to take on the Chargers, the Niners will be without either of their two best running backs and will be looking to their veteran defense to keep them in the game; this, alone, is enough reason to consider the 49ers' defense for your DFS rosters. If Philip Rivers somehow does not play, the Niners likely become the defensive play of the weekend; if he does play, however, the Niners are an option, but likely not the best option.

KICKERS

Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):

Dan Bailey, DAL ($5100 versus Indianapolis): The Cowboys control their own playoff destiny and will be looking to move the ball on every drive against the Colts at home this weekend. Dan Bailey does not miss, the Cowboys need every score they can muster, this game is a potential shootout, weather should not be a factor, and the Cowboys have something to play for in Week #16. If you have the salary, Bailey is a strong play.

Mason Crosby, GB ($4900 versus Tampa Bay): Mason Crosby moves away from Lambeau Field this week, where kicking field goals is competely dependent on the dicey December weather; in Tampa Bay, however, weather should not be a factor and the Packers are projected to score nearly 30 points on Sunday. At $4900 salary, Crosby could offer the most upside of any kicker on the entire game slate in Week #16.

Shayne Graham, NO ($4700 versus Atlanta): If you are looking to save salary at the kicker position, Shayne Graham is your guy. He is playing in the game with the highest Vegas total for the week and is inside a dome; for those reasons alone, Graham will be the highest-owned kicker in DFS this weekend. At $4700, he is a steal.

TEAM DEFENSES

Seahawks (versus Arizona): (FD: $5500, DK: $3700). At the high end of salaries for defenses are the Seattle Seahawks. Rather than rewrite what has already been written elsewhere, the FootballGuys newswire had this to say about Ryan Lindley matching up against this Seahawks' defense: "Arizona Cardinals QB Ryan Lindley enters the Week 16 game against the Seattle Seahawks with 181 pass attempts without a touchdown, which is the most in NFL history, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The Seahawks have allowed only two passing TDs and have intercepted four passes in their last five games. Lindley has the worst completion percentage (51.4), fewest yards per attempt (4.3), least amount of touchdowns (0) and lowest total QBR (9.1) among 60 quarterbacks with a minimum of 150 passing attempts since 2012, according to ESPN Stats & Information." If that does not entice you to spend up for the Seahawks, nothing I can write will change your mind.

Panthers (versus Cleveland): (FD: $4900, DK: $3000). With the display that Johnny Manziel put on in his NFL debut last week, there is good reason to be excited about the Panthers' defensive prospects this weekend in Charlotte, particularly at their asking price on the two major DFS sites. The early line on the Browns' team total is ~ 18 points, which is ~ 18 more points than the Browns scored last week when they were at home in an AFC North matchup; how much improvement will the Browns make now that their playoff hopes are null, they are on the road, and the formula for beating Manziel is established? Against a defense that is allowing only ~ 20 points per game when playing at home, Johnny Football and the Browns could be in for a long afternoon.

Dolphins (versus Minnesota): (FD: $4800, DK: $2800). Nobody will be on the Dolphins' defense after how they have played over the past month; the Dolphins have lost three of their last four games, but those opponents were the Ravens, Patriots, and Broncos...three very good offenses. Miami's defensive statistics over that time were ugly, particularly against the run...however, the Minnesota Vikings are amongst the league-leaders in sacks allowed and Miami has the #1 rated pass rush per ProFootballFocus. With skill players named Matt Asiata and Charles Johnson, this Vikings' offense is no match for the Dolphins in Miami.

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