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Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
New Orleans | Atlanta | -6.5 | 31.25 | 56 | +++ | +++ | |
Philadelphia | Washington | -9 | 30 | 51 | +++ | +++ | |
Green Bay | Tampa Bay | -10.5 | 29.5 | 48.5 | +++ | ++ | |
Dallas | Indianapolis | -3.5 | 29.5 | 55.5 | ++ | ++ | |
New England | NY Jets | -10 | 28.5 | 47 | +++ | ++ | |
Detroit | Chicago | -4.5 | 26 | 47.5 | + | + | |
Indianapolis | Dallas | 3.5 | 26 | 55.5 | + | + | |
Denver | Cincinnati | -3.5 | 25.5 | 47.5 | + | + | |
Atlanta | New Orleans | 6.5 | 24.75 | 56 | + | ||
Miami | Minnesota | -7 | 24.75 | 42.5 | + | + | |
Pittsburgh | Kansas City | -3 | 24.75 | 46.5 | |||
St. Louis | NY Giants | -5 | 24.25 | 43.5 | |||
Baltimore | Houston | -4.5 | 23.25 | 42 | |||
Buffalo | Oakland | -5.5 | 22.25 | 39 | ++ | ||
Seattle | Arizona | -8 | 22.25 | 36.5 | + | +++ | |
Jacksonville | Tennessee | -3 | 22 | 41 | |||
San Francisco | San Diego | -2.5 | 22 | 41.5 | |||
Cincinnati | Denver | 3.5 | 22 | 47.5 | |||
Kansas City | Pittsburgh | 3 | 21.75 | 46.5 | |||
Carolina | Cleveland | -4 | 21.75 | 39.5 | + | ||
Chicago | Detroit | 4.5 | 21.5 | 47.5 | |||
Washington | Philadelphia | 9 | 21 | 51 | + | ||
San Diego | San Francisco | 2.5 | 19.5 | 41.5 | |||
NY Giants | St. Louis | 5 | 19.25 | 43.5 | |||
Tennessee | Jacksonville | 3 | 19 | 41 | |||
Tampa Bay | Green Bay | 10.5 | 19 | 48.5 | + | ||
Houston | Baltimore | 4.5 | 18.75 | 42 | |||
NY Jets | New England | 10 | 18.5 | 47 | |||
Minnesota | Miami | 7 | 17.75 | 42.5 | |||
Cleveland | Carolina | 4 | 17.75 | 39.5 | |||
Oakland | Buffalo | 5.5 | 16.75 | 39 | |||
Arizona | Seattle | 8 | 14.25 | 36.5 |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Atlanta): With a team total of ~ 31 points, the New Orleans Saints are slated to be this weekend's highest-scoring team. Their matchup against the Atlanta Falcons is what dreams are made of: Drew Brees at home against a passing defense that is allowing an average of nearly 300 passing yards per game. Brees has scored 30+ (DraftKings) fantasy points in three out of his last four games and should have no problem doing more of the same this Sunday against the Falcons' terrible secondary.
- Philadelphia (versus Washington): Mark Sanchez posted his worst fantasy game of the season last week against the Cowboys, but he gets a chance to redeem himself against a Washington passing defense that has allowed 10 passing touchdowns over their past three games and is ProFootballFocus' worst-rated pass coverage defense. Further strengthening the likelihood for a big day is the fact that the Redskins field a top-ten rush defense, which often forces opposing offenses to go to the air. Oddsmakers have projected the Eagles to score 30 points in this one, which means that Sanchez has plenty of upside and his price tag on DFS sites should be affordable.
RUNNING GAME
- New Orleans (versus Atlanta): For as bad as the Falcons' secondary is, their front seven are not much better. Atlanta has allowed more rushing touchdowns than any team in the league (19) including eight touchdowns to opposing running backs over their previous four games. As touchdown-favorites, the Saints could build a lead and lean on Mark Ingram to milk the clock in the second half of this one. If you cannot afford the passing game, you have to consider the running game because this game should be a barn-burner.
- Philadelphia (versus Washington): On paper, this is a plus matchup for LeSean McCoy and the Philadelphia Eagles' running game; as nearly 10-point favorites, the Eagles could run the ball 30 times in this contest, but the Redskins boast a solid rush defense, which forces their opponents to resort to throwing the ball. In the Chip Kelly offense, a series of short passes could substitute for those aforementioned 30 rush attempts, if necessary. Despite the Vegas line on this one, be aware that rostering LeSean McCoy has its risks.
- Green Bay (versus Tampa Bay): Vegas has slated the 2014 Bay of Pigs game as a complete blowout, predicting the Packers to win by 10+ and score nearly 30 points in the process. If the game plays out as oddsmakers predicts, we could see a whole lot of Eddie Lacy in the second half. Lacy looked great last weekend against a far better Buffalo Bills rush defense, so expectations are high given this gamescript.
- New England (versus NY Jets): As 10-point favorites against the Jets, the New England Patriots could be in a good spot to run the ball often on Sunday afternoon at the Meadowlands. However, the Jets are stingy against opposing running backs, allowing only 3.5 yards per carry (3rd in NFL) and 87.5 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL). Furthermore, guessing Bill Belichick's primary running back from week to week is a total crap shoot; after multiple weeks with LeGarrette Blount getting the vast majority of carries, Jonas Gray outnumbered both Shane Vereen and LeGarrette Blount last week against the Dolphins. Despite the promising gamescript, the negative matchup and guessing game with the Pats' running backs makes this one lose most of its appeal.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Seattle (versus Arizona): Over their last four games, the Seattle Seahawks have given up a total of 27 points...that's less than a touchdown per game for those of you who are averse to division; it is safe to say that they have corrected any defensive deficiencies from the beginning of the year. This Sunday, they travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals, who currently hold first place in the NFC playoff hunt. However, this Cardinals' offense will be starting Ryan Lindley now that Drew Stanton went down with an injury last week; Lindley has thrown nearly 200 passes in his short NFL career and not one of them has found a receiver in the endzone. This is not the defense he wants to be facing this week with home-field advantage at stake. Vegas' team total of 14 for the Cards might actually be a bit generous.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Green Bay (versus Tampa Bay): Last week against the Bills, the Green Bay Packers' receivers dropped seven passes; Eddie Lacy was the only targeted receiver who did not drop a pass in that effort. Those dropped passes likely cost the Packers the game and you can bet that they will want to put it behind them against the Bucs this week. Look for Aaron Rodgers to continue to pepper his receiving corps to reestablish their mutual trust and work on whatever ailed them last week. With a team total of ~ 30 points, there should be plenty of scoring opportunity to be shared amongst this talented bunch of receivers.
- Dallas (versus Indianapolis): Jason Garrett and Bill Callahan appeared to have a moment of clarity last week when they exploited the mismatch between Dez Bryant and Philadelphia Eagles' cornerback Cary Williams; two weeks after a disappointing Thanksgiving performance, Dez was targeted with high-value passes and finished the evening with 114 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns. This weekend, Dez may have his work cut out for him against Vontae Davis (for ~ 50% of his routes), but that should mean that Terrence Williams, Cole Beasley, and Jason Witten will get additional looks from Tony Romo. This game has one of the highest totals of the weekend and features two explosive offenses that could send DFS scores into orbit; the Cowboys' 29.5-point team total out of Vegas suggests that you should have a part of Tony Romo and his receivers, particularly if the Colts' offense can keep pace.
- New England (versus NY Jets): The Patriots are projected to score over four touchdowns on Sunday and they face off against one of the best rushing defenses in the league; that can only mean good things for the New England passing game. Only the Redskins and Bears have given up more passing touchdowns than the Jets, which tells you all that you need to know about this matchup--Tom Brady and all of his receivers (LaFell, Edelman, Gronkowski) are in play.
RUNNING GAME
- Dallas (versus Indianapolis): DeMarco Murray broke his hand late in the game against the Eagles on Sunday night and is questionable to play this weekend against the Colts. Despite his potential absence, Vegas oddsmakers still project the Cowboys to score ~ 30 points, which means they are fully confident in Murray's replacement, Joseph Randle. In limited action this season (34 rushing attempts), Randle is averaging 7.0 yards per carry, which is exceptional; while he likely will not accrue those sorts of numbers on Sunday afternoon, running behind this talented Cowboys' offensive line has been fruitful for Murray all season, so Randle could be in store for similar success. At near minimum-salary across the industry, Randle will be tough to ignore.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Buffalo (versus Oakland): After shutting down the potent Packers' offense in Buffalo last week, the Bills take their strong defense on the road to Oakland in Week #16. In three of their past four games, the Bills have scored at least 18 fantasy points due to an ability to get after the quarterback and strong cornerback play. Vegas linesmakers project the Raiders to score only ~17 points on Sunday, which bodes well for the Bills to perform admirably once again.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Detroit (versus Chicago): Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions travel to Chicago to face the Bears in an NFC North showdown...err, maybe not a 'showdown,' but they both do play in the NFC North. The Bears have lost three consecutive games, the first of which was a loss to these same Detroit Lions, 34-17, on Thanksgiving afternoon. In the process, they have allowed 106 points (35.3 points per game), including 323.3 passing yards and 2.7 passing touchdowns per game; the Bears have now given up 33 touchdowns through the air this season, which is worst in the NFL. With a projected team total of 26 points, Stafford and the Lions have an A+ matchup against this Bears' team that appears to have completely given up on their season.
- Indianapolis (versus Dallas): There should be a high-scoring affair in Dallas this weekend when the Colts matchup against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has been inconsistent this season, allowing four 300-yard performances from opposing quarterbackss (and two 290+ yard games, too). Recently, Andrew Luck has displayed signs of being human after starting the season with 300-yards passing in nine out of his first ten games; over the Colts' most recent four game, Luck has only a single 300-yard game. With questions surrounding the health of T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne, some may avoid the Colts' passing game, but Vegas is not deterred, as evidenced by their 26-point team total for Indy.
- Denver (versus Cincinnati): Peyton Manning has been killing playoff rosters everywhere in season-long leagues; he is averaging only 195-yards passing and a single touchdown per game over his previous three outings. The reason? The emergence of C.J. Anderson has made it unnecessary for the Broncos to throw the ball 40 times per game, as they were doing earlier in the season. The Bengals' passing defense is actually fairly solid, however, ranking in the top ten across many defensive categories, which might temper enthusiasm for rostering Peyton and company this weekend, particularly given their lofty DFS salaries. That said, Vegas believes the Broncos should score ~ 26 points, which means there should be significant fantasy goodness to be had from the Broncos' side of the ball.
- Atlanta (versus New Orleans): The New Orleans Saints are the league's 27th ranked passing defense (yards per game) and have ProFootballFocus' 29th rated pass coverage unit, which bodes well for Matt Ryan this Sunday. Ryan is hot...over the past month, Ryan has four multi-touchdown games and has thrown for 300 yards on three out of four occasions. The Saints should have no difficulties moving the ball against the Falcons' defense, which should result in an absolute barn burner of a game; Vegas agrees and projects the Falcons to score 25 points.
- Washington (versus Philadelphia): The Eagles' secondary is allowing nearly 50% of opposing quarterbacks to throw for 300-yards this season. While 300-yards passing is unlikely for Robert Griffin III on Saturday (he has not thrown for 300 yards in over a year), his salary is very low on DFS sites, while his upside is significant against the Eagles, who have allowed 12 out of 14 quarterbacks to throw for multiple touchdowns this season. Given the likely gamescript (Washington trailing), Griffin could find himself throwing (and scrambling) often in the second half and could put up nice numbers at a reasonable salary.
- Tampa Bay (versus Green Bay): A tournament-only play, Josh McCown and the Buccaneers will almost assuredly be playing from behind on Sunday; the Bucs are the week's largest underdogs, but are still projected to score nearly three touchdowns. Given the Bucs inability to run the ball effectively (29th ranked rushing offense; only 6 rushing touchdowns all season), their projected scoring will likely come through the air; in GPP formats, a McCown to Mike Evans (or Vincent Jackson) makes a lot of sense, given Vegas' gamescript.
RUNNING GAME
- Detroit (versus Chicago): Joique Bell has emerged as the feature running back in Detroit this season; he is averaging ~ 19 carries, 3 receptions, 97.3 all-purpose yards, and a touchdown per game over the past month. Against the Bears on Sunday, Bell should see a similar workload. The biggest question is if the Lions will just pass the ball to exploit the Bears' weak secondary and consequently minimize the running game? Either way, Vegas projects the Lions to score nearly four touchdowns; if they find themselves inside the Bears' 5-yard line, Bell will likely get the opportunity to score some of those touchdowns. For that reason alone, he carries significant upside at a modest salary.
- Indianapolis (versus Dallas): The Colts are slated to score ~ 26-points against the Cowboys on Sunday. Dallas' biggest defensive deficiency is in stopping opposing running backs; they are allowing 4.3 yards per carry on the season and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns, which ranks next-to-last in the league (behind the Falcons). For this reason, the Colts' backfield is intriguing. However, the Colts refuse to recognize that Daniel Herron is the superior back on their team and continue to give equal opportunity to Trent Richardson. Because of this full-fledged running back by committee approach, the upside for both backs is limited; however, the matchup is strong and if you can guess who will get the goalline carries for the Colts, it could pay dividends against this poor rush defense.
- Denver (versus Cincinnati): As discussed above, Peyton Manning has disappointed recently due to the introduction and heavy usage of C.J. Anderson in the Broncos' offensive scheme. Since becoming the feature back in the Broncos' offense in Week #12, Anderson is averaging nearly 30 touches per game, which outnumbers Peyton Manning's average number of pass attempts (27 per game). This statistic is telling because it demonstrates a bona fide committment to the run from the Broncos. Given that the Bengals have held almost half of opposing quarterbacks to less than 200-yards passing this season, we might expect more of the same from the Broncos, who will definitely take what the defense gives them. In this case, that could be more C.J. Anderson on Monday night.
- Miami (versus Minnesota): The Dolphins are touchdown favorites over the visiting Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota's run defense is average to below-average, yielding 4.3 yards per carry and 123.9 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL). Lamar Miller has been quiet as of late, but his lack of production can be blamed on both tough matchups and gamescript (playing from behind); the Dolphins should be playing with a lead in this matchup, which should mean that Miller gets 18+ touches and a strong possibility for a score.
- Seattle (versus Arizona): The Seahawks are a run-first team and will be playing against an Arizona team that will not (cannot?) throw often this weekend because it will be led by QB Ryan Lindley. This game has all the makings of a slow, low snap-count game, where the run game is heavily-favored. Arizona's run defense is actually fairly stout, but Marshawn Lynch is the type of back who can make any defensive line bend, if not break. As 8-point favorites with a projected team total of ~ 22 points and an absolute commitment to the run, this could be a nice spot for the Seahawks' ground game on Sunday.
TEAM DEFENSE
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Miami (versus Minnesota): The Minnesota Vikings travel to Miami to face off against the Dolphins, who have lost three of their last four games; those losses, however, came against far tougher opponents (Baltimore, New England, Denver) than the Vikings. This appears to be a great spot for the Dolphins, as the Vikings are averaging less than 20 points per game (24th in the league) and give up 3.1 sacks per game (29th in the NFL); Miami has the second best pass rush in the league (per ProFootballFocus), which could mean a long day for Teddy Bridgewater on Sunday. Vegas believes all of these pieces fit for a good Dolphins' defensive showing because they project the Vikings to score less than 18 points on the day.
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Carolina (versus Cleveland): Johnny Manziel could not have had a worse showing for his first NFL start last week against the Bengals; he threw for 80 yards and 2 interceptions, rushed for 13 yards, had no touchdowns, and took 3 sacks for a loss of 26 yards. This week, he will try to improve on that performance when the Browns go to Carolina to play the Panthers. Make no mistake: The Panthers are not a good team, but their defense has been above-average at home, where they yield only ~ 20 points per game; they should have no problems shutting down Manziel. Like the Arizona-Seattle game, this one looks to be a battle on the ground, which projects to be low-scoring; Vegas agrees with that sentiment, as they have set the Browns team total at ~ 18 points.