For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Tom Brady (Primarily GPP; FD: $9700, DK: $8000). The New York Jets' defense has ProFootballFocus' top rating against the rush; they are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry (3rd in NFL), 87.5 rushing yards per game (4th in NFL), and 7 rushing touchdowns on the season (4th in NFL). When the Patriots faced the Jets back in Week #7, they amassed only 63 yards on the ground, forcing Tom Brady to resort to moving the ball through the air; Brady finished the afternoon with 261 passing yards and 3 touchdowns. At the Meadowlands this weekend, Brady could be in store for a similar performance because the Jets remain stingy against the run, but they continue to get beaten via the passing game (3rd most passing touchdowns allowed). Vegas projects the Patriots to score 4 touchdowns this weekend and it would not be surprising to see all Pats' scoring to come through Tom Brady, who is entirely capable of a 4-touchdown game (he has three of them in his past nine games). [~ 5% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Matt Ryan (Primarily GPP; FD: $8700, DK: $7400). This is entirely a gamescript selection: The Falcons/Saints game is the highest-scoring game on this week's board and the likelihood is that the Falcons will be playing from behind, which means that Matt Ryan could feasibly finish the day with 40+ attempts. Ryan enters the game as one of the hotter QB's in the league; he has three consecutive 300-yard passing performances (to go with 9 passing touchdowns over the same span). He could not ask for a better matchup against the Saints, who are ProFootballFocus' 28th ranked pass coverage unit and the same secondary that yielded 448 passing yards and 3 touchdowns to Matt Ryan on NFL opening day. As of the writing of this article, Julio Jones is highly questionable, but Ryan proved last week he can manage to put together a solid game without Jones...so there is no need to come off Ryan if Jones is not dressing on Sunday. [~ 6% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Alex Smith (Primarily GPP; FD: $7400, DK: $5600). If you want to go completely off the grid in your GPP's on Sunday, you might consider Alex Smith against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Smith has yet to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver and has only thrown a total of 18 TD's on the season (1.3 TD's per game). However, he gets a great matchup this weekend in a game that has playoff implications for both squads. The Steelers will be playing without Troy Polamalu for only the third time this season and their pass defense struggled without him in the previous two matchups against very bad quarterbacks; Michael Vick and Zach Mettenberger averaged just north of 17 fantasy points against the Steelers in low-scoring games...a similar performance from Smith this weekend would almost reach GPP-value. This game should be a bit higher scoring (Vegas total is 47.5) and the Steelers are the 30th ranked passing defense on FootballOutsiders, which should boost Alex Smith's chances of ending his streak without a touchdown to one of his wide receivers; lastly, he will be extremely low-owned across the industry and if he does manage to put together a 20 fantasy point game, you will definitely be separated from the pack. [~ 2% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Drew Brees (Cash and GPP format; FD: $9100, DK: $8300). Brees looks to be the quality QB start of the weekend for DFS games. Over the past month, Brees has averaged nearly 330 passing yards and 3 touchdowns per game, while completing over 75% of his passes during that time. His matchup against the Falcons should have him (and you) salivating; Atlanta is yielding almost 300 passing yards per game, generates no pass rush whatsoever (dead-last in the league in sacks), is ProFootballFocus' 31st rated pass coverage offense, and is FootballOutsiders' 31st ranked passing defense. Brees is almost assured 300 passing yards in this contest; with a Vegas team total of over 30 points, it is difficult to imagine a scenario where he does not finish with several passing touchdowns, as well. He should easily surpass 20 fantasy points on various DFS sites, making him a solid cash game play with GPP upside. [~ 11% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Matthew Stafford (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8200, DK: $7000). To save a bit of salary space, you might consider pivoting away from Drew Brees to Matthew Stafford for your cash games. Stafford might have a better matchup than Brees, if that is possible. Stafford faces a Bears' team that has yielded 300-yard passing games to half of their opposing quarterbacks this season; furthermore, no team has allowed more passing touchdowns than the Chicago Bears in 2014. Stafford will have no problem dissecting this secondary and is a virtual lock for a 300-yard day and a pair of touchdowns, which is good enough for 20+ fantasy points. At a fair (underpriced?) salary, he is a safe play for your cash games this weekend. [~ 13% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Jordy Nelson (Primarily GPP; FD: $8800, DK: $7700). There may not be a single player who is looking more forward to playing this Sunday than Jordy Nelson. Last week, Nelson likely cost him team a victory in Buffalo when he dropped a perfectly-placed pass that would have assuredly gone for a 94-yard touchdown; instead, Nelson finished the day with one of his worst performances of the season (5/55/0). His chance for redemption comes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are ProFootballFocus' 26th rated pass coverage unit; he will line up against either Alteraun Verner or Johnathan Banks, both of whom have given up big days to opposing wide receivers this year, including three 2-touchdown performances. The only drawback to owning Nelson is his ownership; on a weekend where other top-tier WR's have suboptimal matchups (Odell Beckham vs. STL, Demaryius Thomas vs. CIN, Antonio Brown vs. KC, Alshon Jeffery vs. DET), Nelson will likely be one of the higher-owned receivers. That said, if he does manage to score multiple touchdowns and a quarter of the rosters have him, you want to keep pace. [~ 24% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Golden Tate (Primarily GPP; FD: $7400, DK: $6100). Calvin Johnson looks to be THE play at the wide receiver position this weekend; the Bears' secondary simply do not possess the talent to keep Johnson sufficiently covered. To try to contain Johnson, the Bears will likely assign double-coverage to him, which should consequently open up Golden Tate for a fantastic receiving day against the team who has yielded more passing touchdowns than any team in the league. Tate's yardage numbers have tailed off since Megatron returned to the lineup in Week #10, but he is still averaging 9.1 targets per game, which is the 8th highest in the NFL. The combination of the matchup, the Vegas team total (26.5 for Detroit), and overall opportunity make Golden Tate an interesting option for GPP's, particularly given his modest price tag. [~ 11% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Vincent Jackson (GPP only; FD: $6700, DK: $5600). 27 targets over the past two weeks. Twenty-seven. Vincent Jackson seems to be the forgotten man in Tampa Bay this season with the emergence of rookie WR Mike Evans, but VJax is still getting plenty of opportunity in this offense. If one examines their stat lines, Evans and Jackson are almost identical in every receiving statistic except for touchdowns (Evans = 11, VJax = 2). Ordinarily, the disparity could be explained away by usage in the redzone and/or a difference in height, but both play a high percentage of snaps inside the 20 and both are 6'5"...so what gives? Some will argue that VJax is showing his age, but all of his other numbers (targets, receptions, yardage, etc) are all on par with his historical average; frankly, I think that VJax has just been unlucky and is on the wrong side of variance--he is in line for a big game soon. Against the Packers, Tampa Bay should be throwing often to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers...this could be the game that VJax finishes with a monster stat line, even if most of it comes during garbage time. [~ 4% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Kenny Stills (Primarily GPP; FD: $6100, DK: $5700) and Marques Colston (Primarily GPP; FD: $6100, DK: $4600). The Saints' receivers, at least some of them, are in store for a solid fantasy day on Sunday; the problem will be identifying which receiver it will be? Since Brandin Cooks went on the IR a month ago, Drew Brees has done a spectacular job at spreading the ball around in this offense; Jimmy Graham leads the team with 28 targets, but trailing close behind are Kenny Stills with 26, Marques Colston with 23, and Pierre Thomas with 23. In a prime matchup against one of the worst passing defenses of the season, you can almost guarantee that one of these players is in line for a nice fantasy day. Of Colston and Stills, a slight edge goes to Colston because he is cheaper, lower-owned, and will not see much of Desmond Trufant in coverage, who is the only talented DB in Atlanta these days. [Stills = ~ 17% owned, Colston = ~ 9% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Dwayne Bowe (GPP only; FD: $5500, DK: $3200). This one will admittedly take a little intestinal fortitude to click 'submit' on, but Dwayne Bowe is a sneaky GPP play this week. The Steelers have been giving up a lot of production through the air over the past month and they lose Safety Troy Polamalu this weekend. Bowe has been dreadful most (all?) of this year, but this matchup is as good as it gets and the Chiefs' passing game has shown modest improvement over the past few weeks since Andy Reid has increased his usage of TE Travis Kelce; Bowe should be shadowed by Pittsburgh's weak corners (William Gay or Antwon Blake), which should give him one of his better opportunities to find open space this season. At close to site minimum across the industry, Bowe needs only 12-15 fantasy points to reach value for GPP purposes...effectively, he needs to score a touchdown to reach value. Furthermore, his low salary opens up cap space at other positions and his low ownership levels will provide your roster with at least one unique player that almost nobody else had the wherewithal to roster. [~ 1% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Calvin Johnson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9200, DK: $8700). The best receiver in the league comes at a discount this week after an off-week against the Minnesota Vikings last Sunday; the Vikings blanketed Johnson with CB Xavier Rhodes, ProFootballFocus' 7th best coverage corner, and also gave him help over the top with a safety to contain Johnson. This week's opponents, the Bears, do not have the personnel to come close to what the Vikings did last week against Megatron. The Bears have given up more passing touchdowns than any team in the league and Calvin Johnson will line up across from rookie Kyle Fuller at least half of the time on Sunday; Fuller is ranked 69th out of 74 qualifying coverage corners on ProFootballFocus, which means that Johnson will have his way this weekend. Effectively, this situation distills down to the best receiver in football going up against the worst secondary in football...and you get him at a discounted price. With the value that exists at the running back position this week, Johnson should be on all your cash game rosters. [~ 15% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Roddy White (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7300, DK: $6600). As of the writing of this article, it appears that Julio Jones will miss yet another week due to a hip injury (Jones has not practiced for two consecutive weeks). If Jones sits yet again, Roddy White becomes a cash game play; others will argue that Harry Douglas is the biggest beneficiary after his 10/131/0 performance last week against Pittsburgh, but Douglas' salary took a huge leap this week and he becomes a GPP-only play as a result. Roddy White's salary, however, is still reasonable for a receiver who will be the WR1 in an offense that will likely throw 40+ times on Sunday against the league's 28th rated pass coverage unit. White has receiving touchdowns in four of his last five games, which only bolsters the argument to get him into your cash game lineups this weekend...particulary on FanDuel, where his salary seems too low. [~ 7% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Jarvis Landry (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7000, DK: $5300). On paper, the matchup against the Vikings' secondary is not one that you would ordinarily want to target; however, the Vikings' slot corner, Captain Munnerlyn, has struggled in coverage this season, allowing an opposing QB rating of 102.2 when throwing in his direction. While Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline are dealing with the Vikings' stellar cornerbacks, Jarvis Landry should have no problem picking apart Munnerlyn on short routes. Landry is averaging just under 10 targets per game over the past four games, which argues that the opportunity should be there once again for the rookie WR this Sunday. On a game slate where mid-range cash game WR's are limited, Landry deserves your consideration due to his opportunity, the plus matchup, and an above-average team total (~ 25 points). [~ 3% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Donte Moncrief (Cash & GPP format; FD: $5900, DK: $4100). With T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne both looking on the doubtful side of questionable entering Sunday's matchup against the Cowboys, Donte Moncrief should step up and fill the role of the primary receiver for the Colts. The Colts have little incentive to put Hilton or Wayne on the field on Sunday because their playoff position is largely known and cannot drastically change without a surprise outcome in the NE-NYJ game. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have plenty of incentive to play well because their playoff lives are completely dependent on winning their last two games. Thus, the Colts could be throwing the ball often, as they try to keep pace with the Cowboys; the tight ends (Fleener/Allen) will get their share of targets, but it is Moncrief who should see a minimum of 6 targets, but could get into the double digits, depending on gamescript. Add in the Colts' team total of 26-points and Moncrief looks like a no-brainer for cash games on Sunday. [~ 4% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
