For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the RBs and TEs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP TIGHT ENDS
Jimmy Graham (Primarily GPP; FD: $7100, DK: $6300). After back-to-back disappointing weeks, Jimmy Graham bounced back with a respectable performance last week against the Bears; the veteran tight end finished the day with 5 catches (on 7 targets) for 87 yards, but failed to find the endzone. This weekend, Graham returns home to play the Falcons, who are one of the league's better defenses in defending the tight end position (3rd best in fantasy points per game); that said, Graham has never been slowed by the Falcons in his career and there is little reason to believe that they will be able to shut him down in this matchup. Graham's current 3-game streak without a touchdown is his longest since Week #16 of 2012; to expect him to continue to go without scoring is difficult to concede. Graham offers the upside of Rob Gronkowski at 10% discount, particularly given the Saints' projected 31-point team total. [~ 6% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Travis Kelce (Primarily GPP; FD: $5600, DK: $4600). After a season of frustration for fantasy football fanatics, it seems that Andy Reid and the Chiefs' coaching staff have finally given Travis Kelce the opportunity that we have been waiting for since opening weekend. Kelce leads Chiefs' receivers over the past two weeks with 15 targets and has been on the field for more than 80% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps for nearly a month; perhaps the time has come? The problem with rostering Kelce for cash games is that we cannot totally trust Andy Reid, who has a tendency to underutilize his most talented players (i.e., Jamaal Charles just last week); in GPP's, however, Kelce possesss the upside associated with some of the upper tier tight ends in the league. The matchup against the Steelers is above-average, which bolsters enthusiam for Kelce on Sunday. [~ 11% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Dwayne Allen (Primarily GPP; FD: $5400, DK: $3800). It appears that T.Y. Hilton will not dress for Sunday's game against the Dallas Cowboys and Reggie Wayne is also a question mark after missing practice on Friday. If those receivers cannot go on Sunday, Dwayne Allen (and Coby Fleener) makes an interesting GPP target for a number of reasons: 1) The Cowboys yield the 2nd most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, 2) Andrew Luck's number of options will be more limited than usual, 3) The gamescript could dictate that the Colts throw the ball often, 4) This is the highest Vegas total of the weekend. Add in Allen's modest salary and he becomes a solid GPP play. [~ 6% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME TIGHT ENDS
Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7800, DK: $7000). There is really no explanation necessary when recommending Gronk as a cash game play. He is averaging 10+ targets over the past month and is the Patriots' #1 redzone receiver. This week, the Pats are slated to score 28-points and their opponents (NY Jets) are the league's 4th worst team in defending the tight end position. Given the inherent inconsistency of the position, in general, rostering Gronk in cash game format makes a lot of sense. [~ 18% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Jason Witten (Primarily cash format; FD: $5300, DK: $4000). At this point in Jason Witten's career, he lacks any degree of speed and/or explosiveness; he is just a set of reliable hands for Tony Romo to use when other receiving options are covered. This weekend, Vegas has set the Cowboys' team total at nearly 30-points, yet their workhorse running back is coming off hand surgery just last week and their best receiver (Dez Bryant) will spend at least half of his day shadowed by the best cornerback in the league (Vontae Davis). This should mean that Jason Witten will be used to move the sticks whenever necessary; Witten is averaging ~ 6 targets per game and get a plus matchup against the Colts, who give up the 2nd most fantasy points to the tight end position. He needs only 6 receptions for 60 yards to reach value for cash games, which should be entirely obtainable; however, his upside is limited because he lacks the ability to gain yardage after the catch...for that reason, he might not be an optimal GPP play. [~ 8% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
GPP RUNNING BACKS
Mark Ingram (Primarily GPP; FD: $7400, DK: $6000). Christmas will come a few days early for the Saints this week when they face the Falcons' dreadful defense in New Orleans. No team in the league has yielded more scoring than the Falcons this season and Ingram represents a player who should touch the ball ~ 20 times against that defense. The case for Ingram improves if the Saints are able to build a lead, as he is the player who will see additional work in the second half. As is the case with the Saints almost weekly, the caveat is that their offense spreads the ball so effectively that any player can score at any given time, which sometimes works against the logical selection (i.e., a primary running back playing with a lead in a high-scoring game). That said, Ingram is offered at a fair price for the upside he brings to the table for your GPP lineups. [~ 10% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Dan Herron (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $4300). Despite being the best back in the committee, Dan Herron still finds himself splitting action with Trent Richardson on a weekly basis. The Colts' coaching staff argues that Richardson is the better pass blocker, but they cannot use him solely for pass blocking duties because that would 'telegraph' their play calling; whether or not it's true is irrelevant because the fact remains that these backs split carries almost 50/50. The matchup against the Cowboys is solid, as the Cowboys' rush defense is ranked 27th in the league by ProFootballFocus and only the Falcons have given up more rush touchdowns than Dallas; in fact, the Cowboys have yielded 5 touchdowns to Eagles' and Bears' running backs over the past two weeks. With T.Y. Hilton likely on the sideline for this game, his touches will be redistributed elsewhere...if Herron can get 15+ touches in this potentially high-scoring game, he possesses the upside you will need to pull down a GPP this weeekend. [~ 3% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Lamar Miller (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $4400). For me, Lamar Miller is a borderline cash game play this weekend. First, the bad: He has not surpassed 60 yards rushing in any of his previous four games and has only a single touchdown during that span. Now, the good: Those four games were against the league's 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 10th ranked rushing defenses and the Dolphins were trailing in at least three of those games, thereby limiting Miller's involvement. That said, Miller does not appear to be losing significant work to either Daniel Thomas or Damien Williams, which bodes well for Miller's workload on Sunday against the Vikings. Against the rush, the Vikings rank in the bottom ten of the league, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 123.9 yards per game. Now that he has gotten through a veritable gauntlet of a schedule over the past month, Lamar Miller could be in store for a big Sunday at a very reasonable price point. [~ 6% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Steven Jackson (Primarily GPP; FD: $6200, DK: $3600). It is easy to ignore Steven Jackson these days; he is on an underperforming team and he is a shell of his former self at the tender age of 31. That said, Jackson rates out as the 8th best running back in the league at ProFootballFocus because he still plays the game well; he may not possess the breakaway speed of his 20's in St. Louis, but Jackson is still a great blocker, a decent pass receiving option, and a powerful runner. Since the Falcons' bye week (Week #9), Jackson has averaged nearly 17 touches per game, which far surpasses any other offensive player. This week, Jackson gets a plus matchup against the Saints, who give up more yardage per carry (4.9) than any team in the league; they are ProFootballFocus' 29th ranked rush defense, as well as the 29th ranked defense in rushing yards allowed per game (132.9)...not to mention that they have given up the 3rd most rushing touchdowns in the league. These factors strongly suggest that you consider SJax for your GPP lineups on Sunday, particularly given the high-scoring nature of this game. [~ 3% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Jonathan Stewart (GPP only; FD: $6200, DK: $5200). My enthusiasm for Jonathan Stewart would be higher if his salary had not jumped to the level it is currently at on the major sites. Just two weeks ago, Stewart could be had for near-minimum salary (he was recommended in this column), but after a few weeks of 20+ carries, Stewart's salary has reached the middle tier of pricing for running backs. That said, DeAngelo Williams is likely not going to suit up for this week's matchup against the Cleveland Browns, which means that Stewart should get 20+ touches again this week. The Browns are not stellar against the run; they allow 4.5 yard per carry and only the Titans allow more rushing yards per game. In a week where the Panthers will likely want to minimize Cam Newton's workload, Stewart could see additional work, particularly if the Panthers can build a lead, as Vegas believes they will. Against a similar Saints' defensive front a few weeks ago, Stewart finished with a stat line of 20/155/1, which, if repeated this week, would be enough to reach value for GPP's on almost all DFS sites. [~ 7% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
CASH GAME RUNNING BACKS
Le'Veon Bell (Cash format only; FD: $9700, DK: $9800). Le'Veon Bell is the definition of a bell cow running back now that LeGarrette Blount has left Pittsburgh. Since Blount left, Bell is averaging nearly 28 touches and 1.8 touchdowns per game; he has been, unquestionably, the best running back over the past month. This week, Bell will face off against the Chiefs, who are allowing a league-high 4.9-yard per carry, yet have surprisingly only yielded 2 rushing touchdowns on the entire season. To put some perspective on that statistic, only the Saints and Giants have also allowed 4.9-yards per carry; those teams have given up 15 and 13 rushing touchdowns, respectively. In other words, the Chiefs are on the wrong side of variance and Le'Veon Bell should be in store for a big day. That said, Bell's salary is tremendously high and he is only being recommended as a cash game play because the likelihood of him reaching 30-40 fantasy points is far less than what his ownership levels will be (not to mention how rostering a $10K running back affects the rest of a DFS roster). [~ 18% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
C.J. Anderson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7800, DK: $6900). It is not entirely clear why the Broncos have transitioned their offense from a pass-first format to a run-first format over the past month, but two things are clear: 1) It has worked, and 2) C.J. Anderson has been stellar in his role as the lead back in Denver. On Monday night, the Broncos will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals, who are the NFL's 24th ranked rush defense, allowing 4.3-yards per carry and 15 rushing touchdowns this season (31st in NFL). Over the past month, no player has had more touches than C.J. Anderson; Anderson is averaging 29.3 touches per game over that span. With Peyton Manning slowed by a thigh injury, we should see a heavy dose of Anderson once again on Monday; he needs only 16-20 fantasy points to reach cash game value on the big DFS sites, a goal that would seem easily achieved given his projected usage in this matchup. [~ 20% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Joique Bell (Cash & GPP format; FD: $7300, DK: $6000). On Thanksgiving afternoon, the Lions jumped to an early lead and Joique Bell was used heavily in the second half to milk the clock; he finished the day with a 23/91/2 stat line (plus 2 receptions for 16 yards). This weekend, Bell and the Lions get another chance at the Bears' defense, which should result in a similar gamescript. Reggie Bush is healthy this time around and will steal a few carries from Bell, but Bell should still see 16-20 touches against this Bears' defense that is yielding 4.3-yards per carry. Given the Lions' team total (26.5-points), Bell's heavy usage, and the likely gamescript, there is little reason to doubt the possibility of a 16/80/1 game for Bell on Sunday, which would be enough to reach value for cash games on the major DFS sites. [~ 14% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
Tre Mason (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6500, DK: $4600). Others will balk at this selection, but Tre Mason represents a quality cash game play this weekend against the Giants. Mason's game logs appear to be inconsistent, but a closer looks shows that Mason has been a victim of circumstance over the past six weeks. In those six weeks, the Rams were trailing in three games; in those games, he averaged only 16 touches per game (versus 23 touches when the Rams are playing with a lead). Likewise, Mason faced the Cardinals (6th against the run) twice, the Broncos (2nd against the run), the Chargers (13th against the run), and the Redskins (7th against the run) over that time...some very solid rushing defenses. This Sunday, Mason gets the Giants, who yield a league-high 4.9-yards per carry and allow the 3rd most rushing yards per game (135.1) in the league. Furthermore, the Rams are touchdown favorites, which, as discussed earlier, bodes well for Mason's carries. To reach value for cash games, he needs only 13 fantasy points, which, frankly, he could have by half-time on Sunday. [~ 17% owned in Thursday FanDuel GPP's]
For last-minute advice, player decisions, and injury news on Sunday morning, tune into the “NFL Gameday” webcast at 11:30 AM (EST) on RotoGrinders Live, where John “tipandpick” Lee, Al “Al_Smizzle” Zeidenfeld, and Dan “DB730” Back will analyze all NFL games every week. You can find the webcast at: https://rotogrinders.com/live. All other daily fantasy questions can be directed to John’s Twitter page at: https://twitter.com/tipandpick
